Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures

Prognostic impact of low muscle mass and low muscle density in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

Low muscle mass (LMM) and low muscle density (LMD) are increasingly recognized as prognostic factors for survival in different malignancies. This study determined the association of LMM and LMD with survival in DLBCL (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma) patients. CT-based measurement of muscle was performed in 164 DLBCL patients prior to chemo-immunotherapy. Z-scores adjusted for gender, age, and body mass index were derived from a healthy reference population. LMM or LMD were defined as a Z-score below −1 and were related to OS and PFS. The co-existence of both LMM and LMD was observed in 13% of the DLBCL patients and was significantly associated with shorter OS and PFS. Also, these patients more often did not complete the planned treatment. The combination of LMM and LMD is an independent prognosti

A novel haemocytometric COVID-19 prognostic score developed and validated in an observational multicentre European hospital-based study

COVID-19 induces haemocytometric changes. Complete blood count changes, including new cell activation parameters, from 982 confirmed COVID-19 adult patients from 11 European hospitals were retrospectively analysed for distinctive patterns based on age, gender, clinical severity, symptom duration, and hospital days. The observed haemocytometric patterns formed the basis to develop a multi-haemocytometric-parameter prognostic score to predict, during the first three days after presentation, which patients will recover without ventilation or deteriorate within a two-week timeframe, needing intensive care or with fatal outcome. The prognostic score, with ROC curve AUC at baseline of 0.753 (95% CI 0.723-0.781) increasing to 0.875 (95% CI 0.806-0.926) on day 3, was superior to any individual parameter at distinguishing between clinical severity. Findings were confirmed in a validation cohort. Aim is that the score and haemocytometry results are simultaneously provided by analyser software, enabling wide applicability of the score as haemocytometry is commonly requested in COVID-19 patients

Genetically Programmed Differences in Epidermal Host Defense between Psoriasis and Atopic Dermatitis Patients

In the past decades, chronic inflammatory diseases such as psoriasis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, Crohn’s disease and celiac disease were generally regarded as immune-mediated conditions involving activated T-cells and proinflammatory cytokines produced by these cells. This paradigm has recently been challenged by the finding that mutations and polymorphisms in epithelium-expressed genes involved in physical barrier function or innate immunity, are risk factors of these conditions. We used a functional genomics approach to analyze cultured keratinocytes from patients with psoriasis or atopic dermatitis and healthy controls. First passage primary cells derived from non-lesional skin were stimulated with pro-inflammatory cytokines, and expression of a panel of 55 genes associated with epidermal differentiation and cutaneous inflammation was measured by quantitative PCR. A subset of these genes was analyzed at the protein level. Using cluster analysis and multivariate analysis of variance we identified groups of genes that were differentially expressed, and could, depending on the stimulus, provide a disease-specific gene expression signature. We found particularly large differences in expression levels of innate immunity genes between keratinocytes from psoriasis patients and atopic dermatitis patients. Our findings indicate that cell-autonomous differences exist between cultured keratinocytes of psoriasis and atopic dermatitis patients, which we interpret to be genetically determined. We hypothesize that polymorphisms of innate immunity genes both with signaling and effector functions are coadapted, each with balancing advantages and disadvantages. In the case of psoriasis, high expression levels of antimicrobial proteins genes putatively confer increased protection against microbial infection, but the biological cost could be a beneficial system gone awry, leading to overt inflammatory disease