On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases

The vertical profile of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes has traditionally represented an important diagnostic for the attribution of the cooling effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO2 increases. However, CO2-induced cooling alters ozone abundance by perturbing ozone chemistry, thereby coupling the stratospheric ozone and temperature responses to changes in CO2 and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Here we untangle the ozone-temperature coupling and show that the attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes to CO2 and ODS changes (which are the true anthropogenic forcing agents) can be quite different from the traditional attribution to CO2 and ozone changes. The significance of these effects is quantified empirically using simulations from a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model. The results confirm the essential validity of the traditional approach in attributing changes during the past period of rapid ODS increases, although we find that about 10% of the upper stratospheric ozone decrease from ODS increases over the period 1975–1995 was offset by the increase in CO2, and the CO2-induced cooling in the upper stratosphere has been somewhat overestimated. When considering ozone recovery, however, the ozone-temperature coupling is a first-order effect; fully 2/5 of the upper stratospheric ozone increase projected to occur from 2010–2040 is attributable to CO2 increases. Thus, it has now become necessary to base attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes on CO2 and ODS changes rather than on CO2 and ozone changes

The effect of nonlinearity in CO2 heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes

An analysis of the attribution of past and future changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature to anthropogenic forcings is presented. The analysis is an extension of the study of Shepherd and Jonsson (2008) who analyzed chemistry-climate simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and attributed both past and future changes to changes in the external forcings, i.e. the abundances of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and well-mixed greenhouse gases. The current study is based on a new CMAM dataset and includes two important changes. First, we account for the nonlinear radiative response to changes in CO2. It is shown that over centennial time scales the radiative response in the upper stratosphere to CO2 changes is significantly nonlinear and that failure to account for this effect leads to a significant error in the attribution. To our knowledge this nonlinearity has not been considered before in attribution analysis, including multiple linear regression studies. For the regression analysis presented here the nonlinearity was taken into account by using CO2 heating rate, rather than CO2 abundance, as the explanatory variable. This approach yields considerable corrections to the results of the previous study and can be recommended to other researchers. Second, an error in the way the CO2 forcing changes are implemented in the CMAM was corrected, which significantly affects the results for the recent past. As the radiation scheme, based on Fomichev et al. (1998), is used in several other models we provide some description of the problem and how it was fixed

Hydrogen transport in superionic system Rb3H(SeO4)2: a revised cooperative migration mechanism

We performed density functional studies of electronic properties and mechanisms of hydrogen transport in Rb3H(SeO4)2 crystal which represents technologically promising class M3H(XO4)2 of proton conductors (M=Rb,Cs, NH4; X=S,Se). The electronic structure calculations show a decisive role of lattice dynamics in the process of proton migration. In the obtained revised mechanism of proton transport, the strong displacements of the vertex oxygens play a key role in the establishing the continuous hydrogen transport and in the achieving low activation energies of proton conduction which is in contrast to the standard two-stage Grotthuss mechanism of proton transport. Consequently, any realistic model description of proton transport should inevitably involve the interactions with the sublattice of the XO4 groups.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures, to appear in Physical Review

Effect of non-zero constant vorticity on the nonlinear resonances of capillary water waves

The influence of an underlying current on 3-wave interactions of capillary water waves is studied. The fact that in irrotational flow resonant 3-wave interactions are not possible can be invalidated by the presence of an underlying current of constant non-zero vorticity. We show that: 1) wave trains in flows with constant non-zero vorticity are possible only for two-dimensional flows; 2) only positive constant vorticities can trigger the appearance of three-wave resonances; 3) the number of positive constant vorticities which do trigger a resonance is countable; 4) the magnitude of a positive constant vorticity triggering a resonance can not be too small.Comment: 6 pages, submitte

Balloon-borne radiometer measurement of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude stratospheric HNO3 profiles spanning 12 years

Low-resolution atmospheric thermal emission spectra collected by balloon-borne radiometers over the time span of 1990–2002 are used to retrieve vertical profiles of HNO3, CFC-11 and CFC-12 volume mixing ratios between approximately 10 and 35 km altitude. All of the data analyzed have been collected from launches from a Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude site, during late summer, when stratospheric dynamic variability is at a minimum. The retrieval technique incorporates detailed forward modeling of the instrument and the radiative properties of the atmosphere, and obtains a best fit between modeled and measured spectra through a combination of onion-peeling and global optimization steps. The retrieved HNO3 profiles are consistent over the 12-year period, and are consistent with recent measurements by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier transform spectrometer satellite instrument. This suggests that, to within the errors of the 1990 measurements, there has been no significant change in the HNO3 summer mid-latitude profile

Influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on the polar mesopause region as simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

It is well established that variations in polar stratospheric winds can affect mesospheric temperatures through changes in the filtering of gravity wave fluxes, which drive a residual circulation in the mesosphere. The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model(CMAM) is used to examine this vertical coupling mechanism in the context of the mesospheric response to the Antarctic ozone hole. It is found that the response differs significantly between late spring and early summer, because of a changing balance between the competing effects of parametrised gravity wavedrag (GWD)and changes in resolved wave drag local to the mesosphere. In late spring, the strengthened stratospheric westerlies arising from the ozone hole lead to reduced eastward GWD in the mesosphere and a warming of the polar mesosphere, just as in the well known mesospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings, but with an opposite sign.In early summer, with easterly flow revailing over most of the polar stratosphere,the strengthened easterly wind shear within the mesosphere arising from the west ward GWD anomaly induces a positive resolved wave drag anomaly through baroclinic instability. The polar cooling induced by this process completely dominates the upper mesospheric response to the ozone hole in early summer. Consequences for the past and future evolution of noctilucent clouds are discusse

Alterações bioquímicas em larvas de Danio rerio por exposição à mistura de herbicidas.

Resumo: A cana-de-açúcar é o carro-chefe da agricultura paulista e o Brasil é líder mundial na produção do etanol em larga escala, um combustível renovável que contribui para a redução da emissão de gases de efeito estufa, por evitar a queima de combustíveis fósseis. A alta produtividade desta cultura necessita, entretanto, do uso intensivo de defensivos agrícolas, que podem contaminar mananciais próximos às áreas de cultivo ou mesmo serem transportados afetando ecossistemas distantes. O uso simultâneo de diferentes herbicidas é comum nas lavouras, mas sua interação e o impacto sobre espécies não-alvo não são bem conhecidos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o efeito da mistura de herbicidas ametrina e diuron, usada na lavoura canavieira, sobre o desenvolvimento embrionário e a atividade de biomarcadores de larvas de Danio rerio, um cipriníedo tropical amplamente utilizado em ensaios ecotoxicológicos