Assessing the costs and environmental benefits of IMO regulations of ship-originated SOx and NOx emissions in the Baltic Sea

To assess the value of the environmental benefits of the Sulphur Emission regulation (SECA) that came into force in 2015, changes in depositions of SOx and NOx from ship exhaust gas emissions were modelled and monetized for the Baltic Sea region for the years 2014 and 2016. During this period, the total deposition of SOx in the study area decreased by 7.3%. The decrease in ship-originated SOx deposition from 38 kt to 3.4 kt (by over 88%) was translated into a monetary value for the ecosystem impacts of nearly 130 million USD, according to the EcoValue08 model. This is less than the modelled health benefits, but it is not insignificant. For NOx, there was no decreasing trend. The exceedance of the critical loads of SOx and NOx was also estimated. The effect of Baltic shipping on the exceedance of critical loads of acidification after SECA is very small, but Baltic shipping still has a considerable effect on the exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication.</p

Health impact of air pollution from shipping in the baltic sea : effects of different spatial resolutions in Sweden

In 2015, stricter regulations to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions and particulate air pollution from shipping were implemented in the Baltic Sea. We investigated the effects on population exposure to particles <2.5 µm (PM2.5) from shipping and estimated related morbidity and mortality in Sweden’s 21 counties at different spatial resolutions. We used a regional model to estimate exposure in Sweden and a city-scale model for Gothenburg. Effects of PM2.5 exposure on total mortality, ischemic heart disease, and stroke were estimated using exposure–response functions from the literature and combining them into disability-adjusted life years (DALYS). PM2.5 exposure from shipping in Gothenburg decreased by 7% (1.6 to 1.5 µg/m3 ) using the city-scale model, and 35% (0.5 to 0.3 µg/m3 ) using the regional model. Different population resolutions had no effects on population exposures. In the city-scale model, annual premature deaths due to shipping PM2.5 dropped from 97 with the high-sulfur scenario to 90 in the low-sulfur scenario, and in the regional model from 32 to 21. In Sweden, DALYs lost due to PM2.5 from Baltic Sea shipping decreased from approximately 5700 to 4200. In conclusion, sulfur emission restrictions for shipping had positive effects on health, but the model resolution affects estimations.Interreg Baltic Sea Region Program and Sahlgrenska University Hospital under the ALF agreement.http://www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerphpm2021School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH

Implementation and evaluation of updated photolysis rates in the EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model using Cloud-J v7.3e

The present work describes the implementation of the state of the art Cloud-J v7.3 photolysis rate calculation code in the EMEP MSC-W chemistry-transport model. Cloud-J calculates photolysis rates and accounts for cloud and aerosol optical properties at model run time, replacing the old system based on tabulated values. The performance of Cloud-J is evaluated against aerial photolysis rate observations made over the Pacific Ocean and against surface observations from three measurement sites in Europe. Numerical experiments are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the calculated photolysis rates to the spatial and temporal model resolution, input meteorology model, simulated ozone column, and cloud effect parameterization. These experiments indicate that the calculated photolysis rates are most sensitive to the choice of input meteorology model and cloud effect parameterization while also showing that surface ozone photolysis rates can vary by up to 20 % due to daily variations in total ozone column. Further analysis investigates the impact of Cloud-J on the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere, aerosol–photolysis interactions, and surface air quality predictions. Results find that the annual mean mass-weighted tropospheric hydroxyl concentration is increased by 26 %, while the photolytic impact of aerosols is mostly limited to large tropical biomass-burning regions. Overall, Cloud-J represents a major improvement over the tabulated system, leading to improved model performance for predicting carbon monoxide and daily maximum ozone surface concentrations

Estimates of the global burden of ambient PM2.5, ozone, and NO2 on asthma incidence and emergency room visits

Abstract Background: Asthma is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide, affecting 358 million people in 2015. Ambient air pollution exacerbates asthma among populations around the world and may also contribute to new-onset asthma. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the number of asthma emergency room visits and new onset asthma cases globally attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations. Methods: We used epidemiological health impact functions combined with data describing population, baseline asthma incidence and prevalence, and pollutant concentrations. We constructed a new dataset of national and regional emergency room visit rates among people with asthma using published survey data. Results: We estimated that 9–23 million and 5–10 million annual asthma emergency room visits globally in 2015 could be attributable to ozone and PM2.5, respectively, representing 8–20% and 4–9% of the annual number of global visits, respectively. The range reflects the application of central risk estimates from different epidemiological meta-analyses. Anthropogenic emissions were responsible for ∼37% and 73% of ozone and PM2.5 impacts, respectively. Remaining impacts were attributable to naturally occurring ozone precursor emissions (e.g., from vegetation, lightning) and PM2.5 (e.g., dust, sea salt), though several of these sources are also influenced by humans. The largest impacts were estimated in China and India. Conclusions: These findings estimate the magnitude of the global asthma burden that could be avoided by reducing ambient air pollution. We also identified key uncertainties and data limitations to be addressed to enable refined estimation. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP376

Clean Shipping: Exploring the impact of emission regulation

The environmental impact of the maritime industry has been under much public discussion,culminating in 2015 when regulations limiting sulphur content from shipping vessels came intoeffect in the Baltic Sea. Since then, the maximum sulphur content of fuel used by all ships navigating the Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA) must be no more than 0.1 per cent. Up-to-date information on thetechnical efficiency and socio-economic impacts of different clean shipping solutions and theircapacity to comply with the regulations, however, is currently very limited. In order to develop future environmental regulations, policy makers and authorities need more knowledge. The shipping industry also needs to make informed investment decisions. To allow for knowledge-based decision making, discussions are needed involving maritime authorities, policy makers, NGOs, and the private sector.We have answered questions on the shipping industry's compliance with environmentalregulations, examining the technical efficiencies of different techniques for removing pollutionfrom exhaust gases. We have also explored the cost-effectiveness of various compliancemeasures used across the industry.Modelling methods have enabled us to assess current and future compliance costs as well aslook at the effects on public health and the environment. We have taken a closer look at threecities in the region to spread best practice on air quality measurement and modelling at a localscale. We have provided analysis to make recommendations that will improve the welfare of thepeople of the Baltic Sea Region. For environmental regulation to be effective, compliance needs to be monitored and noncompliance needs to be sanctioned. We have also presented findings on compliance levels and reflect on the attitudes of ship-owners responsible for meeting the regulations.The project aims to support maritime businesses and economic growth. Clean shipping solutionsprovide the potential for businesses to innovate. The development of clean shipping technologiesleads to spin-off enterprises and allows European industry actors to lead the way in globalmarkets. The Baltic Sea Region is a forerunner in this respect, acting as a living laboratory forclean shipping. The effectiveness of SECA was analysed by comparing the costs and benefits of the regulation according to a framework presented in Lähteenmäki-Uutela et al. (2018). As part of this work, wehave developed a free web-based economic decision-making tool to help companies estimate investment costs and decide what investments to make to comply with SECA regulations.In addition to promoting technological development and improving future regulation, we havebeen active in sharing the results with the wider community. Finding ways to meet the increasingdemand for improved air quality will ultimately bring economic opportunities as well as wellbeingfor the people of the region.</p

Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions

Emission of pollutants from shipping contributes to ambient air pollution. Our aim was to estimate exposure to particulate air pollution (PM2.5) and health effects from shipping in countries around the Baltic Sea, as well as effects of the sulfur regulations for fuels enforced in 2015 by the Baltic Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA). Yearly PM2.5 emissions, from ship activity data and emission inventories in 2014 and 2016, were estimated. Concentrations and population exposure (0.1&deg; &times; 0.1&deg;) of PM2.5 were estimated from a chemical transport mode, meteorology, and population density. Excess mortality and morbidity were estimated using established exposure-response (ER) functions. Estimated mean PM2.5 per inhabitant from Baltic shipping was 0.22 &micro;g/m3 in 2014 in ten countries, highest in Denmark (0.57 &micro;g/m3). For the ER function with the steepest slope, the number of estimated extra premature deaths was 3413 in total, highest in Germany and lowest in Norway. It decreased by about 35% in 2016 (after SECA), a reduction of &gt;1000 cases. In addition, 1500 non-fatal cases of ischemic heart disease and 1500 non-fatal cases of stroke in 2014 caused by Baltic shipping emissions were reduced by the same extent in 2016. In conclusion, PM2.5 emissions from Baltic shipping, and resulting health impacts decreased substantially after the SECA regulations in 2015

The effects of intercontinental emission sources on European air pollution levels

This study is based on model results from TF HTAP (Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) phase II, in which a set of source receptor model experiments have been defined, reducing global (and regional) anthropogenic emissions by 20% in different source regions throughout the globe, with the main focus on the year 2010. All the participating models use the same set of anthropogenic emissions. Comparisons of model results to measurements are shown for selected European surface sites and for ozone sondes, but the main focus here is on the contributions to European ozone levels from different world regions, and how and why these contributions differ depending on the model. We investigate the origins by use of a novel stepwise approach, combining simple tracer calculations and calculations of CO and O3. To highlight the differences, we analyse the vertical transects of the midlatitude effects from the 20% emission reductions. The spread in the model results increases from the simple CO tracer to CO and then to ozone as the complexity of the physical and chemical processes involved increase. As a result of non-linear ozone chemistry, the contributions from non-European relative to European sources are larger for ozone compared to the CO and the CO tracer. For annually averaged ozone the contributions from the rest of the world is larger than the effects from European emissions alone, with the largest contributions from North America and eastern Asia. There are also considerable contributions from other nearby regions to the east and from international shipping. The calculated contributions to European annual average ozone from other major source regions relative to all contributions from all major sources (RAIR – Relative Annual Intercontinental Response) have increased from 43% in HTAP1 to 82% in HTAP2. This increase is mainly caused by a better definition of Europe, with increased emissions outside of Europe relative to those in Europe, and by including a nearby non-European source for external-to-Europe regions. European contributions to ozone metrics reflecting human health and ecosystem damage, which mostly accumulated in the summer months, are larger than for annual ozone. Whereas ozone from European sources peaks in the summer months, the largest contributions from non-European sources are mostly calculated for the spring months, when ozone production over the polluted continents starts to increase, while at the same time the lifetime of ozone in the free troposphere is relatively long. At the surface, contributions from non-European sources are of similar magnitude for all European subregions considered, defined as TF HTAP receptor regions (north-western, south-western, eastern and south-eastern Europe).JRC.D.5-Food Securit

Multi-model study of HTAP II on sulfur and nitrogen deposition

This study uses multi-model ensemble results of 11 models from the second phase of Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP II) to calculate the global sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition in 2010. Modeled wet deposition is evaluated with observation networks in North America, Europe and East Asia. The modeled results agree well with observations, with 76–83% of stations being edicted within 50% of observations. The models underestimate SO24 , NO3 and NHC 4 wet depositions in some European and East Asian stations but overestimate NO3 wet deposition in the eastern United States. Intercomparison with previous projects (PhotoComp, ACCMIP and HTAP I) shows that HTPA II has considerably improved the estimation of deposition at European and East Asian stations. Modeled dry deposition is generally higher than the “inferential” data calculated by observed concentration and modeled velocity in North America, but the inferential data have high uncertainty, too. The global S deposition is 84 Tg(S) in 2010, with 49% in continental regions and 51% in the ocean (19% of which coastal). The global N deposition consists of 59 Tg(N) oxidized nitrogen (NOy / deposition and 64 Tg(N) reduced nitrogen (NHx / deposition in 2010. About 65% of N is deposited in continental regions, and 35% in the ocean (15% of which coastal). The estimated outflow of pollution from land to ocean is about 4 Tg(S) for S deposition and 18 Tg(N) for N deposition. Comparing our results to the results in 2001 from HTAP I, we find that the global distributions of S and N deposition have changed considerably during the last 10 years. The global S deposition decreases 2 Tg(S) (3 %) from 2001 to 2010, with significant decreases in Europe (5 Tg(S) and 55 %), North America (3 Tg(S) and 29 %) and Russia (2 Tg(S) and 26 %), and increases in South Asia (2 Tg(S) and 42 %) and the Middle East (1 Tg(S) and 44 %). The global N deposition increases by 7 Tg(N) (6 %), mainly contributed by South Asia (5 Tg(N) and 39 %), East Asia (4 Tg(N) and 21 %) and Southeast Asia (2 Tg(N) and 21 %). The NHx deposition increases with no control policy on NH3 emission in North America. On the other hand, NOy deposition has started to dominate in East Asia (especially China) due to boosted NOx emission.JRC.D.5-Food Securit