Investigating the ecological and economic consequences of marine climate change in UK waters

Climate change is of concern for both marine biodiversity and the human societies that are supported by it. Predictive models are required to assess potential responses of socio-ecological systems to climate change, implement measures to enhance their adaptability, and ensure the persistence of marine species and the livelihoods that depend on them. This requires a combination of modelling techniques, making use of a variety of data while dealing with uncertainty at many stages of the modelling procedure. This thesis explores the impact of climate change on a marine socio-ecological system, in particular through climate-induced shifts in species’ distributions. It further aims to explore sources of uncertainty in projecting models under climate change. Ecological and economic research techniques are applied to a set of species predominantly inhabiting UK waters, using projections of climate change for 2050. Ensemble projections suggest polewards shifts in species at an average rate of 27 and 42 km per decade for demersal and pelagic species respectively. Uncertainties concerning alternative, valid data sources and modelling procedures, notably species distribution models, contribute variation to predictions, and a multi-model approach is advocated to incorporate uncertainties and prevent bias through model selection. Predictions help identify increased risk of over-fishing through bycatch and indicate likely changes in environmental suitability of protected areas. Results also demonstrate how an index of agreement may be used to promote the tractability and application of projections by non-specialist communities. Furthermore, total maximum catch potential within UK waters is predicted to decrease by 2050, resulting in a median decrease in profitability between 2005 and 2050 of 10%, dependent on alterations in key costs such as fuel price. This thesis highlights the tight link between climate change impacts at ecological and socio-economic levels. Although adaptive capacity might be enhanced by switching gear or altering fishing patterns, rebuilding fish stocks to sustainable level will both improve their resilience to multiple threats and improve the resilience of fishers to withstand changes in distribution and catch

A vegetations map of south America.

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Socio-economic Impacts—Fisheries

Fishers and scientists have known for over 100 years that the status of fish stocks can be greatly influenced by prevailing climatic conditions. Based on historical sea surface temperature data, the North Sea has been identified as one of 20 ‘hot spots’ of climate change globally and projections for the next 100 years suggest that the region will continue to warm. The consequences of this rapid temperature rise are already being seen in shifts in species distribution and variability in stock recruitment. This chapter reviews current evidence for climate change effects on fisheries in the North Sea—one of the most important fishing grounds in the world—as well as available projections for North Sea fisheries in the future. Discussion focuses on biological, operational and wider market concerns, as well as on possible economic consequences. It is clear that fish communities and the fisheries that target them will be very different in 50 or 100 years’ time and that management and governance will need to adapt accordingly

Pervasive and intelligent decision support in Intensive Medicine – the complete picture

Series : Lecture notes in computer science (LNCS), vol. 8649In the Intensive Care Units (ICU) it is notorious the high number of data sources available. This situation brings more complexity to the way of how a professional makes a decision based on information provided by those data sources. Normally, the decisions are based on empirical knowledge and common sense. Often, they don’t make use of the information provided by the ICU data sources, due to the difficulty in understanding them. To overcome these constraints an integrated and pervasive system called INTCare has been deployed. This paper is focused in presenting the system architecture and the knowledge obtained by each one of the decision modules: Patient Vital Signs, Critical Events, ICU Medical Scores and Ensemble Data Mining. This system is able to make hourly predictions in terms of organ failure and outcome. High values of sensitivity where reached, e.g. 97.95% for the cardiovascular system, 99.77% for the outcome. In addition, the system is prepared for tracking patients’ critical events and for evaluating medical scores automatically and in real-time.(undefined

The information needs of people living with ankylosing spondylitis: a questionnaire survey

<p>BACKGROUND:Today, health care is patient-centred with patients more involved in medical decision making and taking an active role in managing their disease. It is important that patients are appropriately informed about their condition and that their health care needs are met. We examine the information utilisation, sources and needs of people with ankylosing spondylitis (AS).</p> <p>METHODS: Participants in an existing AS cohort study were asked to complete a postal or online questionnaire containing closed and open-ended questions, regarding their information access and needs. Participants were stratified by age and descriptive statistics were performed using STATA 11, while thematic analysis was performed on open-ended question narratives. Qualitative data was handled in Microsoft Access and explored for emerging themes and patterns of experiences.</p> <p>RESULTS: Despite 73% of respondents having internet access, only 49% used the internet to access information regarding AS. Even then, this was only infrequently. Only 50% of respondents reported accessing written information about AS, which was obtained mainly in specialist clinics. Women were more likely than men to access information (63% (women) 46% (men)) regardless of the source, while younger patients were more likely to use online sources. The main source of non-written information was the rheumatologist. Overall, the respondents felt there was sufficient information available, but there was a perception that the tone was often too negative. The majority (95%) of people would like to receive a regular newsletter about AS, containing positive practical and local information. Suggestions were also made for more information about AS to be made available to non-specialist medical professionals and the general public.</p> <p>CONCLUSIONS: There appears to be sufficient information available for people with AS in the UK and this is mostly accessed by younger AS patients. Many patients, particularly men, choose not to access AS information and concerns were raised about its negative tone. Patients still rely on written and verbal information from their specialists. Future initiatives should focus on the delivery of more positive information, targeting younger participants in particular and increasing the awareness in the general population and wider non-specialist medical community.</p&gt

Evidence for a common physical description of non-Fermi-liquid behavior in f-electron systems

The non-Fermi-liquid (NFL) behavior observed in the low temperature specific heat $C(T)$ and magnetic susceptibility $\chi(T)$ of f-electron systems is analyzed within the context of a recently developed theory based on Griffiths singularities. Measurements of $C(T)$ and $\chi(T)$ in the systems $Th_{1-x}U_{x}Pd_{2}Al_{3}$, $Y_{1-x}U_{x}Pd_3$, and $UCu_{5-x}M_{x}$ (M = Pd, Pt) are found to be consistent with $C(T)/T \propto \chi(T) \propto T^{-1+\lambda}$ predicted by this model with $\lambda <1$ in the NFL regime. These results suggest that the NFL properties observed in a wide variety of f-electron systems can be described within the context of a common physical picture.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Non-Fermi liquid behavior and Griffiths phase in {\it f}-electron compounds

We study the interplay among disorder, RKKY and Kondo interactions in {\it f}-electron alloys. We argue that the non-Fermi liquid behavior observed in these systems is due to the existence of a Griffiths phase close to a quantum critical point. The existence of this phase provides a unified picture of a large class of materials. We also propose new experiments that can test these ideas.Comment: 4 pages, 1 Figure. NEW version of the original manuscript. A single framework for NFL behavior in different kinds of alloys is presented. Final version finally allowed to appear on the glorious Physical Review Letter

Multipulse phases in k-mixtures of Bose-Einstein condensates

For a competitive system of k coupled nonlinear Schroedinger equations we prove the existence, when the competition parameter is large, of positive radial solutions on R^N. We show that, when the competition parameter goes to infinity, the profile of each component separates, in many pulses, from the others. Moreover, we can prescribe the location of such pulses in terms of the oscillations of the changing-sign solutions of the scalar nonlinear Schroedinger equation. Within an Hartree-Fock approximation, this provides a theoretical indication of phase separation into many nodal domains for the k-mixtures of Bose-Einstein condensates.Comment: 21 page