537 research outputs found

    Lessons to be learned from test evaluations during the Covid-19 pandemic:RSS Working Group’s Report on Diagnostic Tests

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    The coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic raised challenges for everyday life. Development of new diagnostic tests was necessary, but under such enormous pressure risking inadequate evaluation. Against a background of concern about standards applied to the evaluation of in vitro diagnostic tests (IVDs), clear statistical thinking was needed on the principles of diagnostic testing in general, and their application in a pandemic. Therefore, in July 2020, the Royal Statistical Society convened a Working Group of six biostatisticians to review the statistical evidence needed to ensure the performance of new tests, especially IVDs for infectious diseases—for regulators, decision-makers, and the public. The Working Group’s review was undertaken when the Covid-19 pandemic shone an unforgiving light on current processes for evaluating and regulating IVDs for infectious diseases. The report’s findings apply more broadly than to the pandemic and IVDs, to diagnostic test evaluations in general. A section of the report focussed on lessons learned during the pandemic and aimed to contribute to the UK Covid-19 Inquiry’s examination of the response to, and impact of, the Covid-19 pandemic to learn lessons for the future. The review made 22 recommendations on what matters for study design, transparency, and regulation

    Gamma-Ray Bursts and Magnetars as Possible Sources of Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays: Correlation of Cosmic Ray Event Positions with IRAS Galaxies

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    We use the two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test to study the correlation between the 60 cosmic ray events above 4x10^19 eV from the AGASA experiment and the positions of infrared luminous galaxies from the IRAS PSCz catalog. These galaxies are expected to be hosts to gamma ray bursts (GRB) and magnetars, both of which are associated with core collapse supernovae and have been proposed as possible acceleration sites for ultra high energy cosmic rays. We find consistency between the models and the AGASA events to have been drawn from the same underlying distribution of positions on the sky with KS probabilities ~50%. Application of the same test to the 11 highest AGASA events above 10^20 eV, however, yields a KS probability of < 0.5%, rejecting the models at >99.5% significance level. Taken at face value, these highest energy results suggest that the existing cosmic ray events above 10^20 eV do not owe their origin to long burst GRBs, rapidly rotating magnetars, or any other events associated with core collapse supernovae. The larger data set expected from the AUGER experiment will test whether this conclusion is real or is a statistical fluke that we estimate to be at the 2 sigma level.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures. Final Version to be published in Phys. Rev.

    Stellar migration and chemical enrichment in the milky way disc: a hybrid model

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    We develop a hybrid model of galactic chemical evolution that combines a multiring computation of chemical enrichment with a prescription for stellar migration and the vertical distribution of stellar populations informed by a cosmological hydrodynamic disc galaxy simulation. Our fiducial model adopts empirically motivated forms of the star formation law and star formation history, with a gradient in outflow mass loading tuned to reproduce the observed metallicity gradient. With this approach, the model reproduces many of the striking qualitative features of the Milky Way disc’s abundance structure: (i) the dependence of the [O/Fe]–[Fe/H] distribution on radius Rgal and mid-plane distance |z|; (ii) the changing shapes of the [O/H] and [Fe/H] distributions with Rgal and |z|; (iii) a broad distribution of [O/Fe] at sub-solar metallicity and changes in the [O/Fe] distribution with Rgal, |z|, and [Fe/H]; (iv) a tight correlation between [O/Fe] and stellar age for [O/Fe] > 0.1; (v) a population of young and intermediate-age α-enhanced stars caused by migration-induced variability in the Type Ia supernova rate; (vi) non-monotonic age–[O/H] and age–[Fe/H] relations, with large scatter and a median age of ∌4 Gyr near solar metallicity. Observationally motivated models with an enhanced star formation rate ∌2 Gyr ago improve agreement with the observed age–[Fe/H] and age–[O/H] relations, but worsen agreement with the observed age–[O/Fe] relation. None of our models predict an [O/Fe] distribution with the distinct bimodality seen in the observations, suggesting that more dramatic evolutionary pathways are required. All code and tables used for our models are publicly available through the Versatile Integrator for Chemical Evolution (VICE; https://pypi.org/project/vice)

    The Lifetime of FRIIs in Groups and Clusters: Implications for Radio-Mode Feedback

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    We determine the maximum lifetime t_max of 52 FRII radio sources found in 26 central group galaxies from cross correlation of the Berlind SDSS group catalog with the VLA FIRST survey. Mock catalogs of FRII sources were produced to match the selection criteria of FIRST and the redshift distribution of our parent sample, while an analytical model was used to calculate source sizes and luminosities. The maximum lifetime of FRII sources was then determined via a comparison of the observed and model projected length distributions. We estimate the average FRII lifetime is 1.5x10^7 years and the duty cycle is ~8x10^8 years. Degeneracies between t_max and the model parameters: jet power distribution, axial ratio, energy injection index, and ambient density introduce at most a factor of two uncertainty in our lifetime estimate. In addition, we calculate the radio active galactic nuclei (AGN) fraction in central group galaxies as a function of several group and host galaxy properties. The lifetime of radio sources recorded here is consistent with the quasar lifetime, even though these FRIIs have substantially sub-Eddington accretion. These results suggest a fiducial time frame for energy injection from AGN in feedback models. If the morphology of a given extended radio source is set by large-scale environment, while the lifetime is determined by the details of the accretion physics, this FRII lifetime is relevant for all extended radio sources.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ. High resolution paper available at http://www.astronomy.ohio-state.edu/~bird/BMK07.pd

    Structural basis for tunable control of actin dynamics by myosin-15 in mechanosensory stereocilia

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    The motor protein myosin-15 is necessary for the development and maintenance of mechanosensory stereocilia, and mutations in myosin-15 cause hereditary deafness. In addition to transporting actin regulatory machinery to stereocilia tips, myosin-15 directly nucleates actin filament (“F-actin”) assembly, which is disrupted by a progressive hearing loss mutation (p.D1647G, “jordan”). Here, we present cryo–electron microscopy structures of myosin-15 bound to F-actin, providing a framework for interpreting the impacts of deafness mutations on motor activity and actin nucleation. Rigor myosin-15 evokes conformational changes in F-actin yet maintains flexibility in actin’s D-loop, which mediates inter-subunit contacts, while the jordan mutant locks the D-loop in a single conformation. Adenosine diphosphate–bound myosin-15 also locks the D-loop, which correspondingly blunts actin-polymerization stimulation. We propose myosin-15 enhances polymerization by bridging actin protomers, regulating nucleation efficiency by modulating actin’s structural plasticity in a myosin nucleotide state–dependent manner. This tunable regulation of actin polymerization could be harnessed to precisely control stereocilium height

    Inflation and the Scale Dependent Spectral Index: Prospects and Strategies

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    We consider the running of the spectral index as a probe of both inflation itself, and of the overall evolution of the very early universe. Surveying a collection of simple single field inflationary models, we confirm that the magnitude of the running is relatively consistent, unlike the tensor amplitude, which varies by orders of magnitude. Given this target, we confirm that the running is potentially detectable by future large scale structure or 21 cm observations, but that only the most futuristic measurements can distinguish between these models on the basis of their running. For any specified inflationary scenario, the combination of the running index and unknown post-inflationary expansion history induces a theoretical uncertainty in the predicted value of the spectral index. This effect can easily dominate the statistical uncertainty with which Planck and its successors are expected to measure the spectral index. More positively, upcoming cosmological experiments thus provide an intriguing probe of physics between TeV and GUT scales by constraining the reheating history associated with any specified inflationary model, opening a window into the "primordial dark age" that follows the end of inflation.Comment: 32 pages. v2 and v3 Minor reference updates /clarification
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