Risk algorithm using serial biomarker measurements doubles the number of screen-detected cancers compared with a single-threshold rule in the United Kingdom collaborative trial of ovarian cancer screening

PURPOSE: Cancer screening strategies have commonly adopted single-biomarker thresholds to identify abnormality. We investigated the impact of serial biomarker change interpreted through a risk algorithm on cancer detection rates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 46,237 women, age 50 years or older underwent incidence screening by using the multimodal strategy (MMS) in which annual serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) was interpreted with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA). Women were triaged by the ROCA: normal risk, returned to annual screening; intermediate risk, repeat CA-125; and elevated risk, repeat CA-125 and transvaginal ultrasound. Women with persistently increased risk were clinically evaluated. All participants were followed through national cancer and/or death registries. Performance characteristics of a single-threshold rule and the ROCA were compared by using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: After 296,911 women-years of annual incidence screening, 640 women underwent surgery. Of those, 133 had primary invasive epithelial ovarian or tubal cancers (iEOCs). In all, 22 interval iEOCs occurred within 1 year of screening, of which one was detected by ROCA but was managed conservatively after clinical assessment. The sensitivity and specificity of MMS for detection of iEOCs were 85.8% (95% CI, 79.3% to 90.9%) and 99.8% (95% CI, 99.8% to 99.8%), respectively, with 4.8 surgeries per iEOC. ROCA alone detected 87.1% (135 of 155) of the iEOCs. Using fixed CA-125 cutoffs at the last annual screen of more than 35, more than 30, and more than 22 U/mL would have identified 41.3% (64 of 155), 48.4% (75 of 155), and 66.5% (103 of 155), respectively. The area under the curve for ROCA (0.915) was significantly (P = .0027) higher than that for a single-threshold rule (0.869). CONCLUSION: Screening by using ROCA doubled the number of screen-detected iEOCs compared with a fixed cutoff. In the context of cancer screening, reliance on predefined single-threshold rules may result in biomarkers of value being discarded

The cost-effectiveness of screening for ovarian cancer: results from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Background: To assess the within trial cost-effectiveness of an NHS ovarian cancer screening (OCS) programme using data from UKCTOCS and extrapolate results based on average life expectancy. Methods: Within trial economic evaluation of no screening (C) versus either (1) an annual OCS programme using transvaginal ultrasound (USS) or (2) an annual ovarian cancer multimodal screening programme with serum CA125 interpreted using a risk algorithm (ROCA) and transvaginal ultrasound as a second line test (MMS), plus comparison of lifetime extrapolation of the no screening arm and the MMS programme using both a predictive and a Markov model. Results: Using a CA125-ROCA cost of £20, the within trial results show USS to be strictly dominated by MMS, with the MMS versus C comparison returning an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £91,452 per life year gained (LYG). If the CA125-ROCA unit cost is reduced to £15 the ICER becomes £77,818 per LYG. Predictive extrapolation over the expected lifetime of the UKCTOCS women returns an ICER of £30,033 per LYG, while Markov modelling produces an ICER of £46,922 per QALY. Conclusions: Analysis suggests that, after accounting for the lead-time required to establish full mortality benefits, a national OCS programme based on the MMS strategy quickly approaches the current NICE thresholds for cost-effectiveness when extrapolated out to lifetime as compared to the within trial ICER estimates. Whether MMS could be recommended on economic grounds would depend on the confirmation and size of the mortality benefit at the end of an ongoing follow-up of the UKCTOCS cohort

Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial

Background Ovarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the eff ect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality. Methods In this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50–74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computergenerated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. Findings Between June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202 638 women: 50 640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50 639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101 359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202 546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50 624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50 623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101 299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345 570 MMS and 327 775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0–12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0–14 of 15% (95% CI –3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (–7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar fl exible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality eff ect was made up of 8% (–20 to 31) in years 0–7 and 23% (1–46) in years 7–14, and in the USS group, of 2% (–27 to 26) in years 0–7 and 21% (–2 to 42) in years 7–14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly diff erent death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (–2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (–27 to 43) in years 0–7 and 28% (–3 to 49) in years 7–14 in favour of MMS. Interpretation Although the mortality reduction was not signifi cant in the primary analysis, we noted a signifi cant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7–14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-eff ectiveness of ovarian cancer screening

Impact on mortality and cancer incidence rates of using random invitation from population registers for recruitment to trials

Background: Participants in trials evaluating preventive interventions such as screening are on average healthier than the general population. To decrease this 'healthy volunteer effect' (HVE) women were randomly invited from population registers to participate in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) and not allowed to self refer. This report assesses the extent of the HVE still prevalent in UKCTOCS and considers how certain shortfalls in mortality and incidence can be related to differences in socioeconomic status.Methods: Between 2001 and 2005, 202 638 postmenopausal women joined the trial out of 1 243 312 women randomly invited from local health authority registers. The cohort was flagged for deaths and cancer registrations and mean follow up at censoring was 5.55 years for mortality, and 2.58 years for cancer incidence. Overall and cause-specific Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) and Standardised Incidence Ratios (SIRs) were calculated based on national mortality (2005) and cancer incidence (2006) statistics. The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD 2007) was used to assess the link between socioeconomic status and mortality/cancer incidence, and differences between the invited and recruited populations.Results: The SMR for all trial participants was 37%. By subgroup, the SMRs were higher for: younger age groups, extremes of BMI distribution and with each increasing year in trial. There was a clear trend between lower socioeconomic status and increased mortality but less pronounced with incidence. While the invited population had higher mean IMD scores (more deprived) than the national average, those who joined the trial were less deprived.Conclusions: Recruitment to screening trials through invitation from population registers does not prevent a pronounced HVE on mortality. The impact on cancer incidence is much smaller. Similar shortfalls can be expected in other screening RCTs and it maybe prudent to use the various mortality and incidence rates presented as guides for calculating event rates and power in RCTs involving women

Overexpression of cyclins A and B as markers of neoplastic glandular lesions of the cervix

Introduction. Cyclins are a family of regulatory proteins that play a pivotal role in controlling the cell cycle. While there is evidence of their altered expression in cervical squamous lesions, their precise role in glandular neoplasia is yet to be elucidated.Objectives. To investigate the role of cyclins as markers of early cervical glandular neoplasia by comparing their expression in lesions of different histological type.Methods. Through a cross-sectional analytical study, paraffin wax sections of normal cervix (n = 11), endometriosis/tubo-endometrioid metaplasia (TEM) (n = 19), cervical glandular intraepithelial neoplasia (CGIN) (n = 33), and invasive adenocarcinoma (n = 28) were studied using monoclonal antibodies for cyclins A, B, D, and E with heat pretreatment for antigen unmasking. A quantitative assessment was employed for the analysis of percentage expression of each marker. Statistical analysis of data was performed using SPSS.Results. A progressive significant increase in cyclin A expression occurred from normal cervix (median: 0, IQ: 0-0), through endometriosis/TEM (median: 1, IQ: 0-15) and CGIN (median: 15, IQ: 0-30) to invasive adenocarcinoma (median: 40, IQ: 21.25-60). Cyclin B, exhibited a similar pattern (median: 0, IQ: 0-0, median: 0, IQ: 0-0.5, median: 8, IQ: 0.75-15, and median: 30, IQ: 15-45, respectively). Statistically higher expression of cyclin B was found in CGIN than in TEM/endometriosis (P &lt; 0.001). Invasive adenocarcinomas expressed higher levels of cyclins A and B than CGIN (P &lt; 0.001). There was significantly greater cyclin E expression in TEM/endometriosis than in normal cervix (P = 0.03) with a nonsignificant further increase in CGIN and invasive adenocarcinoma. The expression of cyclin D was not significantly different among all groups.Conclusions. Our data indicate that up-regulation of cyclin A and B expression occurs in neoplastic lesions of the cervix. Cyclin B expression was significantly more widespread in CGIN lesions than in TEM/endometriosis indicating that further assessment of the value of this marker in the diagnosis of cervical glandular neoplasia is warranted. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p

Effect of delays in primary care referral on survival of women with epithelial ovarian cancer: retrospective audit

OBJECTIVE: To examine referral pathways from primary care for patients with epithelial ovarian cancer and to identify factors related to survival at 18 months. DESIGN: Retrospective review of patient notes. SETTING: General practices and receiving hospitals within Mersey region. SUBJECTS: 135 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer identified from an audit in the Mersey area between 1992 and 1994. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Delays between onset of symptoms and treatment attributable to patient, general practitioner, and hospital. RESULTS: 105 (78%) women first presented to their general practitioner within four weeks of the onset of symptoms. 99 (73%) women were referred to hospital by their general practitioners within four weeks of presentation, and 95 (70%) were seen in hospital within two weeks of referral. Multivariate analysis with survival as the dependent variable identified age (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 0.99) cancer stage III or more (0.15, 0.05 to 0.43), and non-specific symptoms (0.36, 0.14 to 0.89) as significant variables. CONCLUSION: Most patients attended their general practitioner within four weeks and were referred within two weeks. No evidence was found that delays in referral or diagnosis adversely affected survival at 18 months. Stage of disease at surgery was the most important adverse factor. An effective screening programme is the most likely method to improve survival

Structure-based design and functional studies of novel noroviral 3C protease chimaeras offer insights into substrate specificity

The norovirus NS6 protease is a key target for anti-viral drug development. Noroviruses encode a 2200 amino acid polyprotein which is cleaved by this critical protease at five defined boundary substrates into six mature non-structural (NS) proteins. Studies of the human norovirus (HNV) NS6 protease, in the context of a full ORF1 polyprotein, have been severely hampered because HNVs are not culturable. Thus, investigations into the HNV NS6 protease have been largely restricted to in vitro assays using Escherichia coli-expressed, purified enzyme. The NS6 protease is formed of two distinct domains joined by a linking loop. Structural data suggest that domain 2 of the protease possesses substantial substrate binding pockets which form the bulk of the interactions with the NS boundaries and largely dictate boundary specificity and cleavage. We have constructed chimaeric murine norovirus (MNV) genomes carrying individual domains from the HNV protease and demonstrated by cell transfection that chimaeric HNV proteases have functional activity in the context of the full-length ORF1 polyprotein. Although domain 2 primarily confers boundary specificity, our data suggest that an inter-domain interaction exists within HNV NS6 protease which influences cleavage of specific substrates. The present study also shows that chimaeric MNVs provide improved models for studying HNV protein function in the context of a full ORF1 polyprotein

Recruitment to multicentre trials — lessons from UKCTOCS: descriptive study

Objective To describe the factors that contributed to successful recruitment of more than 200 000 women to the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, one of the largest ever randomised controlled trials. Design Descriptive study. Setting 13 NHS trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Participants Postmenopausal women aged 50-74; exclusion criteria included ovarian malignancy, bilateral oophorectomy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, active non-ovarian malignancy, and participation in other ovarian cancer screening trials. Main outcome measures Achievement of target recruitment, acceptance rates of invitation, and recruitment rates. Results The trial was set up in 13 centres with 27 adjoining local health authorities. The coordinating centre team was led by one of the senior investigators, who was closely involved in planning and day to day trial management. Of 1 243 282 women invited, 23.2% (288 955) replied that they were eligible and would like to participate. Of those sent appointments, 73.6% (205 090) attended for recruitment. The acceptance rate varied from 19% to 33% between trial centres. Measures to ensure target recruitment included named coordinating centre staff supporting and monitoring each centre, prompt identification and resolution of logistic problems, varying the volume of invitations by centre, using local nonattendance rates to determine the size of recruitment clinics, and organising large ad hoc clinics supported by coordinating centre staff. The trial randomised 202 638 women in 4.3 years. Conclusions Planning and trial management are as important as trial design and require equal attention from senior investigators. Successful recruitment needs constant monitoring by a committed proactive management team that is willing to explore individual solutions for different centres and use central resources to improve local recruitment. Automation of trial processes with web based trial management systems is crucial in large multicentre randomised controlled trials. Recruitment can be further enhanced by using information videos and group discussions