Tropical cyclones within the sedimentary record : analyzing overwash deposition from event to millennial timescales

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution February 2009.Tropical cyclone activity over the last 5000 years is investigated using overwash sediments from coastal lagoons on the islands of Vieques, Puerto Rico and Koshikijima, Japan. A simple sediment transport model can reproduce the landward fining deposits observed at Vieques, and reveals that although the record exhibits centennial-tomillennial changes in hurricane overwash frequency, the magnitude of these flooding events has remained relatively constant. Stochastic simulations of hurricane overwash show that breaks in activity at Vieques are extremely long and unlikely to occur under the current hurricane climatology and the present barrier morphology. Periods of less frequent hurricane deposition at Vieques are contemporaneous with intervals of increased El Niño occurrences and reduced precipitation in West Africa, suggesting a dominant influence by these two climatic phenomena. Hiatuses in overwash activity between 3600- to-2500 and 1000-500 years ago are longer than what is generated by overwash simulations under a constant El Niño-like state, indicating that mechanisms in addition to variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation are required to completely produce the overwash variability at Vieques. Periods of low overwash activity at Vieques are concurrent with increased overwash activity at Kamikoshiki and may indicate a correspondence between tropical cyclone activity in the western Northern Atlantic and the western North Pacific.Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, the Risk Prediction Initiative, the National Geographic Society, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research, and graduate student fellowships from the Coastal Ocean Institute at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and the United States Geological Survey

Sediment deposition in the lower Hudson River estuary

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution September 1999This study uses geophysical and sedimentological data collected from the Lower Hudson River estuary to identify the depositional response of the estuary to high river discharge events. Erosional and depositional environments in the estuary are identified through the use of side-scan sonar, bottom penetrating sonar and surficial sediment sampling. Sediment cores are used to document deposit thicknesses and to obtain the spatial distribution of estuarine deposits. Results show a high degree of spatial and temporal variability in sedimentation within the estuary. Two primary deposits are identified underneath the turbidity maximum for the estuary. Approximately 300,000 metric tons of sediment were deposited within these two deposits during May and June of 1998. This short-term accumulation underneath the turbidity maximum of the estuary can account for 30 to 98 percent of the estimated, river-borne sediment load supplied to the estuary during the 1997-1998 water year. Both the tidally produced stratigraphy observed in sediment cores and the spatial distribution of identified deposits, support the theory that sedimentation underneath the turbidity maximum of the estuary is primarily the results of a convergence in bottom water flow, caused by the formation of a salinity front during ebb tide.This research was funded by the Hudson River Foundation and a National Science Foundation Coastal Trainee Fellowship

Grain-size analysis of hurricane-induced event beds in a New England salt marsh, Massachusetts, USA

Author Posting. © Coastal Education and Research Foundation, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of Coastal Education and Research Foundation for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Coastal Research 37(2), (2021): 326-33, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-19-00159.1.Tropical cyclones pose a growing threat to coastal infrastructure and livelihood. Because instrumental and historic records are too short to help us understand interactions between tropical cyclones and climate on a longer scale, proxy records are the only means for reconstructing millennia of tropical cyclone impacts. This study determines grain-size trends in storm-induced overwash deposits along a transect of sediment cores from a salt marsh in Mattapoisett, Massachusetts, to characterize sorting trends and compare deposits associated with individual storms. The overwash deposits preserved within the high-marsh peat provide a record spanning the last two millennia. Building on a 2010 study, a different approach was used to accurately determine the grain-size distribution of overwash deposits from cores in a transect running perpendicular to the adjacent sandy/gravely barrier. Although maximum grain-size values are expected to decrease as distance from the barrier increases, not all event deposits that were studied follow this trend within uncertainty. Analysis of the storm event beds reveal a significant difference in settling trends between historic and prehistoric deposits, with historic deposits largely displaying landward-fining trends and prehistoric deposits largely displaying landward-coarsening trends. This suggests changes in the hydrodynamic or that geomorphic regime may have altered the way in which storm beds were deposited at this site. This new in-depth, transect-based approach has utility for improving the accuracy of future storm reconstructions, particularly for events for which no historic record exists

Exploring typhoon variability over the mid-to-late Holocene : evidence of extreme coastal flooding from Kamikoshiki, Japan

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Quaternary Science Reviews 28 (2009): 1774-1785, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.02.005.Sediment cores from two coastal lakes located on the island of Kamikoshiki in southwestern Japan (Lake Namakoike and Lake Kaiike) provide evidence for the response of a backbarrier beach system to episodic coastal inundation over the last 6400 years. Subbottom seismic surveys exhibit acoustically laminated, parallel to subparallel seismic reflectors, intermittently truncated by erosional unconformities. Sediment cores collected from targeted depocenters in both lakes contain finely laminated organic mud interbedded with coarse grained units, with depths of coarse deposits concurrent with prominent seismic reflectors. The timing of the youngest deposit at Kamikoshiki correlates to the most recently documented breach in the barrier during a typhoon in 1951 AD. Assuming this modern deposit provides an analog for identifying past events, paleo typhoons may be reconstructed from layers exhibiting an increase in grain-size, a break in fine-scale stratigraphy, and elevated Sr concentrations. Periods of barrier breaching are concurrent with an increase in El Niño frequency, indicating that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation has potentially played a key role in governing typhoon variability during the mid-to-late Holocene. An inverse correlation is observed between tropical cyclone reconstructions from the western North Atlantic and the Kamikoshiki site, which may indicate an oscillating pattern in tropical cyclone activity between the western Northern Atlantic and the western North Pacific, or at least between the western Northern Atlantic and regions encompassing southern Japan. The two kamikaze typhoons which contributed to the failed Mongol invasions of Japan in 1274 AD and 1281 AD occur during a period with more frequent marine-sourced deposition at the site, suggesting the events took place during a period of greater regional typhoon activity.The study was supported by the Coastal Ocean Institute (COI) and the Ocean and Climate Change Institute (OCCI) at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute

A decadally-resolved paleohurricane record archived in the late Holocene sediments of a Florida sinkhole

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 287 (2011): 14-30, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2011.07.001.A 4500-year record of hurricane-induced storm surges is developed from sediment cores collected from a coastal sinkhole near Apalachee Bay, Florida. Recent deposition of sand layers in the upper sediments of the pond was found to be contemporaneous with significant, historic storm surges at the site modeled using SLOSH and the Best Track, post-1851 A.D. dataset. Using the historic portion of the record for calibration, paleohurricane deposits were identified by sand content and dated using radiocarbon-based age models. Marine-indicative foraminifera, some originating at least 5 km offshore, were present in several modern and ancient storm deposits. The presence and long-term preservation of offshore foraminifera suggest that this site and others like it may yield promising microfossil-based paleohurricane reconstructions in the future. Due to the sub-decadal (~ 7 year) resolution of the record and the site’s high susceptibility to hurricane-generated storm surges, the average, local frequency of recorded events, approximately 3.9 storms per century, is greater than that of previously published paleohurricane records from the region. The high incidence of recorded events permitted a time series of local hurricane frequency during the last five millennia to be constructed. Variability in the frequency of the largest storm layers was found to be greater than what would likely occur by chance alone, with intervals of both anomalously high and low storm frequency identified. However, the rate at which smaller layers were deposited was relatively constant over the last five millennia. This may suggest that significant variability in hurricane frequency has occurred only in the highest magnitude events. The frequency of high magnitude events peaked near 6 storms per century between 2800 and 2300 years ago. High magnitude events were relatively rare with about 0-3 storms per century occurring between 1900 to 1600 years ago and between 400 to 150 years ago. A marked decline in the number of large storm deposits, which began around 600 years ago, has persisted through present with below average frequency over the last 150 years when compared to the preceding five millennia.Funding for this research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Coastal Ocean Institute. the model. The Florida State University Marine Laboratory provided lodging during fieldwork. This research was completed during an American Meteorological Society Graduate Fellowship, National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship and Coastal Ocean Institute Fellowship. This work was further supported by National Science Foundation award #OCE-0903020

Turbidity hysteresis in an estuary and tidal river following an extreme discharge event

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ralston, D. K., Yellen, B., Woodruff, J. D., & Fernald, S. Turbidity hysteresis in an estuary and tidal river following an extreme discharge event. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(15), (2020): e2020GL088005, doi:10.1029/2020GL088005.Nonlinear turbidity‐discharge relationships are explored in the context of sediment sourcing and event‐driven hysteresis using long‐term (≥12‐year) turbidity observations from the tidal freshwater and saline estuary of the Hudson River. At four locations spanning 175 km, turbidity generally increased with discharge but did not follow a constant log‐log dependence, in part due to event‐driven adjustments in sediment availability. Following major sediment inputs from extreme precipitation and discharge events in 2011, turbidity in the tidal river increased by 20–50% for a given discharge. The coherent shifts in the turbidity‐discharge relationship along the tidal river over the subsequent 2 years suggest that the 2011 events increased sediment availability for resuspension. In the saline estuary, changes in the sediment‐discharge relationship were less apparent after the high discharge events, indicating that greater background turbidity due to internal sources make event‐driven inputs less important in the saline estuary at interannual time scales.This work was sponsored by the National Estuarine Research Reserve System Science Collaborative, funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and managed by the University of Michigan Water Center (NAI4NOS4190145), with additional support to Yellen and Woodruff from USGS Cooperative Agreement No. G19AC00091

Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9 (2008): Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane-induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B.P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B.P. and 500–1000 years B.P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Niño state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, Risk Prediction Initiative, National Geographic Society, Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research

Turbidity Hysteresis in an Estuary and Tidal River Following an Extreme Discharge Event

Nonlinear turbidity‐discharge relationships are explored in the context of sediment sourcing and event‐driven hysteresis using long‐term (≥12‐year) turbidity observations from the tidal freshwater and saline estuary of the Hudson River. At four locations spanning 175 km, turbidity generally increased with discharge but did not follow a constant log‐log dependence, in part due to event‐driven adjustments in sediment availability. Following major sediment inputs from extreme precipitation and discharge events in 2011, turbidity in the tidal river increased by 20–50% for a given discharge. The coherent shifts in the turbidity‐discharge relationship along the tidal river over the subsequent 2 years suggest that the 2011 events increased sediment availability for resuspension. In the saline estuary, changes in the sediment‐discharge relationship were less apparent after the high discharge events, indicating that greater background turbidity due to internal sources make event‐driven inputs less important in the saline estuary at interannual time scales

Tropical cyclone wind speed constraints from resultant storm surge deposition : a 2500 year reconstruction of hurricane activity from St. Marks, FL

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 14 (2013): 2993–3008, doi:10.1002/ggge.20217.Recent work suggests that the patterns of intense (≥category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) hurricane strikes over the last few millennia might differ from that of overall hurricane activity during this period. Prior studies typically rely on assigning a threshold storm intensity required to produce a sedimentological overwash signal at a particular coastal site based on historical analogs. Here, we improve on this approach by presenting a new inverse-model technique that constrains the most likely wind speeds required to transport the maximum grain size within resultant storm deposits. As a case study, the technique is applied to event layers observed in sediments collected from a coastal sinkhole in northwestern Florida. We find that (1) simulated wind speeds for modern deposits are consistent with the intensities for historical hurricanes affecting the site, (2) all deposits throughout the ∼2500 year record are capable of being produced by hurricanes, and (3) a period of increased intense hurricane frequency is observed between ∼1700 and ∼600 years B.P. and decreased intense storm frequency is observed from ∼2500 to ∼1700 and ∼600 years B.P. to the present. This is consistent with prior reconstructions from nearby sites. Changes in the frequency of intense hurricane strikes may be related to the degree of penetration of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation.2014-02-2

How unique was Hurricane Sandy? Sedimentary reconstructions of extreme flooding from New York Harbor

© The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 4 (2014): 7366, doi:10.1038/srep07366.The magnitude of flooding in New York City by Hurricane Sandy is commonly believed to be extremely rare, with estimated return periods near or greater than 1000 years. However, the brevity of tide gauge records result in significant uncertainties when estimating the uniqueness of such an event. Here we compare resultant deposition by Hurricane Sandy to earlier storm-induced flood layers in order to extend records of flooding to the city beyond the instrumental dataset. Inversely modeled storm conditions from grain size trends show that a more compact yet more intense hurricane in 1821 CE probably resulted in a similar storm tide and a significantly larger storm surge. Our results indicate the occurrence of additional flood events like Hurricane Sandy in recent centuries, and highlight the inadequacies of the instrumental record in estimating current flood risk by such extreme events.Funding for this work was provided by the Hudson River Foundation Expedited Grant #004/12E, the Hudson River Foundation Graduate Fellowship 02–13, the National Science Foundation (RAPID grant #1313859 and instrument and facility support via grant IF-0949313), and the Dalio Explore Fund