Appendix A. An adaptive Metropolis-Hastings scheme.

An adaptive Metropolis-Hastings scheme

Bird migration numbers

The following variables are given in the columns: Species: bird species of concern, 3+3 abbreviation of scientific name Season: "Spring" or "Autumn" Year: year when data has been collected (5 years per species-season combination) DOY: day of year (1 to 365) X_sp: covariate describing the relative migration intensity of related species (NA = missing value) N: number of observed birds at Hanko bird observatory (NA = missing value

Appendix B. Algorithm convergence.

Algorithm convergence

Appendix A. Summary statistics and distance metrics.

Summary statistics and distance metrics

Appendix B. Figures for Scenario 1.

Figures for Scenario 1

Supplement 1. Matlab functions for fitting the models in Scenario 3.

<h2>File List</h2><div> <p><a href="fitModel.m">fitModel.m</a> (MD5: dcf2f5a898ddf08cc71f14dbafabd124)</p> <p><a href="fullNLL.m">fullNLL.m</a> (MD5: 514a14611653186dabcf5bff28bfa50f)</p> <p><a href="kalman.m">kalman.m</a> (MD5: d1f7404cbf0f8bc9ecce730023f2a891)</p> </div><h2>Description</h2><div> <p>fitModel.m fits a data set simulated under Scenario 3.<br> fullNLL.m computes the likelihood for the full ML method.<br> kalman.m is an implementation of the kalman filter used by fitModel.</p> </div

Appendix A. Likelihood calculations.

Likelihood calculations

Appendix D. Figures for Scenario 3.

Figures for Scenario 3

Appendix C. Figures for Scenario 2.

Figures for Scenario 2

Appendix A. Parameter estimates and figure of environmental variation.

Parameter estimates and figure of environmental variation