Application of Stochastic Reliability Modeling to Waterfall and Feature Driven Development Software Development Lifecycles

There are many techniques for performing software reliability modeling. In the environment of software development some models use the stochastic nature of fault introduction and fault removal to predict reliability. This thesis research analyzes a stochastic approach to software reliability modeling and its performance on two distinct software development lifecycles. The derivation of the model is applied to each lifecycle. Contrasts between the lifecycles are shown. Actual data collected from industry projects illustrate the performance of the model to the lifecycle. Actual software development fault data is used in select phases of each lifecycle for comparisons with the model predicted fault data. Various enhancements to the model are presented and evaluated, including optimization of the parameters based on partial observations

Application of multi-agent games to the prediction of financial time-series

We report on a technique based on multi-agent games which has potential use in the prediction of future movements of financial time-series. A third-party game is trained on a black-box time-series, and is then run into the future to extract next-step and multi-step predictions. In addition to the possibility of identifying profit opportunities, the technique may prove useful in the development of improved risk management strategies.Comment: Work presented at the NATO Workshop on Econophysics. Prague (Feb 2001). To appear in Physica

The unavoidable costs of ethnicity : a review of evidence on health costs

This report was commissioned by the Advisory Committee on Resource Allocation (ACRA), and prepared by the Centre for Health Services Studies (CHESS) and the Centre for Research in Ethnic Relations (CRER) at the University of Warwick. The NHS Executive does not necessarily assent to the factual accuracy of the report, nor necessarily share the opinions and recommendations of the authors. The study reviews the evidence concerning the degree to which the presence of populations of minority ethnic origin was associated with ‘unavoidable additional costs’ in health service delivery. While local health authorities retail full autonomy in their use of funds allocated to them under the Hospital and Community Health Services formula, the size of that budget is governed by a set of weightings applied to their population, to allow for factors known to influence levels of need, and the costs of providing services. The study began by considering the definitions used in describing ‘ethnicity’ and ethnic groups in relevant medical and social policy literature. It is clear that no fixed set of terms can be adopted, and that flexibility is required to respond to social changes. The terms used in the 1991 Census, with additions to allow for local and contemporary developments, provide a suitable baseline but require additional information on religion language and migration history for clinical and health service delivery planning. There have been notable developments in health service strategy to meet the needs of black and minority ethnic groups which have been encouraged by good practice guidelines and local initiatives. Together with research into epidemiology and ethnic monitoring of services, these have enlarged understanding of the impact of diversity. A conceptual model is developed which explores the potential for such diversity to lead to variations in the cost of providing health services to a multi-ethnic population. The research team reviewed the existing published evidence relating to ethnic health and disease treatment in medical, social science, academic and practitioner literature, using conventional techniques. Additional evidence was located through trawls of ‘grey’ literature in specialist collections, and through contacting all English health districts with a request for information. A number of authorities and trusts provided written and oral evidence, and a bibliography of key materials is provided. Key issues considered include the need for and use of, interpreter and translation services, the incidence of ‘ethnically-specific’ disease, and variations in the prevalence and cost of treating ‘common’ conditions in minority ethnic populations. Sources of variation are discussed, and a ‘scoping’ approach adopted to explore the extent to which these variations could be adequately modelled. It is clear that while some additional costs can be identified, and seen to be unavoidable, there are other areas where the presence of minority populations may lead to lessened pressures on budgets, or where provision of ‘ethnic-specific’ facilities may be alternative to existing needs. The literature provides a range of estimates which can be used in a modelling exercise, but is deficient in many respects, particularly in terms of precise costs associated with procedure and conditions, or in associating precise and consistent categories of ethnic group with epidemiological and operational service provision data. Certain other activities require funding to set them up, and may not be directly related to population size. There is considerable variation in the approaches adopted by different health authorities, and many services are provided by agencies not funded by NHS budgets. The study was completed before the announcement of proposed changes in health service commissioning which may have other implications for ethnic diversity. The presence of minorities is associated with the need to provide additional services in respect of interpreting and translation, and the media of communication. In order to achieve clinical effectiveness, a range of advocacy support facilities or alternative models of provision seem to be desirable. Ethnic diversity requires adaptation and additional evidence in order to inform processes of consultation and commissioning. Minority populations do create demands for certain additional specific clinical services not required by the bulk of the majority population: it is not yet clear to what extent the reverse can be stated since research on ‘under-use’ is less well developed. Some variations in levels of need, particularly those relating to established clinical difference in susceptibility or deprivation, are already incorporated in funding formulae although it is not clear how far the indicators adequately reflect these factors. Costs are not necessarily simply related to the size of minority populations. The provision of services to meet minority needs is not always a reflection of their presence, but has frequently depended upon the provision of additional specific funds. There is a consensus that the NHS research and development strategy should accept the need for more work to establish the actual levels of need and usage of service by ethnic minority groups, and that effort should be made to use and improve the growing collection of relevant information through ethnic monitoring activities. A variety of modelling techniques are suggested, and can be shown to have the potential to provide practical guidance to future policy in the field. Current data availability at a national or regional scale is inadequate to provide estimates of the ‘additional costs of ethnicity’ but locally collected data and the existence of relevant policy initiatives suggest that a focused study in selected districts would provide sufficiently robust information to provide reliable estimates. The review has demonstrated that there are costs associated with the presence of minority ethnic groups in the population which can be shown to be unavoidable and additional, but that others are either ‘desirable’ or ‘alternative’. It would be wrong to assume that all cost pressures of this nature are in the same direction. Our study has drawn attention to deficiencies in data collection and budgeting which may hinder investigation of the effectiveness of the service in general. The process of drawing attention to ethnic minority needs itself leads to developments in services which are functional and desirable for the majority population

A Search for Binary Stars at Low Metallicity

We present initial results measuring the companion fraction of metal-poor stars ([Fe/H]$<-$2.0). We are employing the Lick Observatory planet-finding system to make high-precision Doppler observations of these objects. The binary fraction of metal-poor stars provides important constraints on star formation in the early Galaxy (Carney et al. 2003). Although it has been shown that a majority of solar metallicity stars are in binaries, it is not clear if this is the case for metal-poor stars. Is there a metallicity floor below which binary systems do not form or become rare? To test this we are determining binary fractions at metallicities below [Fe/H]$=-2.0$. Our measurments are not as precise as the planet finders', but we are still finding errors of only 50 to 300 m/s, depending on the signal-to-noise of a spectrum and stellar atmosphere of the star. At this precision we can be much more complete than previous studies in our search for stellar companions.Comment: To appear in conference proceedings,"First Stars III", eds. B. O'Shea, A. Heger & T. Abel. 3 pages, 5 figure

Wind Turbine Wake Effect Visualization And LiDAR Measurement Techniques

The expansion of wind energy development has resulted in larger wind farms and closer placement of turbines to utilize the space available. Each turbine produces a wake that affects downstream turbines, which causes issues such as production loss, blade loading, and fluctuating electrical output. In order to minimize this impact, the wake produced by turbines must first be understood. Experimental methods were used in the exploration of the wake effects of wind turbines. Smoke visualization inside a controlled wind facility was used to determine the helical vortex wake distribution behind a 3.3 m diameter turbine as well as the tip vortex shedding on the blade. Wind Doppler Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) measurement devices are used to measure the velocity of aerosols to determine the wind velocity. This technique can be used to measure the airspeed in the wake of a wind turbine. The University of Waterloo Wind Energy Group has a ZephIR z150 LiDAR to use in this study. The LiDAR was verified for accuracy against a cup and vane anemometer. The results determined that the LiDAR was suitable to provide accurate measurements in further turbine wake experiments. The University of Waterloo’s facilities provide the advantage to study wake effects under controlled wind conditions as well as under realistic open-air conditions

Recent Contributions of Theory to Our Understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Revolutionary observational arrays, together with a new generation of ocean and climate models, have provided new and intriguing insights into the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the last two decades. Theoretical models have also changed our view of the AMOC, providing a dynamical framework for understanding the new observations and the results of complex models. In this paper we review recent advances in conceptual understanding of the processes maintaining the AMOC. We discuss recent theoretical models that address issues such as the interplay between surface buoyancy and wind forcing, the extent to which the AMOC is adiabatic, the importance of mesoscale eddies, the interaction between the middepth North Atlantic Deep Water cell and the abyssal Antarctic Bottom Water cell, the role of basin geometry and bathymetry, and the importance of a three‐dimensional multiple‐basin perspective. We review new paradigms for deep water formation in the high‐latitude North Atlantic and the impact of diapycnal mixing on vertical motion in the ocean interior. And we discuss advances in our understanding of the AMOC's stability and its scaling with large‐scale meridional density gradients. Along with reviewing theories for the mean AMOC, we consider models of AMOC variability and discuss what we have learned from theory about the detection and meridional propagation of AMOC anomalies. Simple theoretical models remain a vital and powerful tool for articulating our understanding of the AMOC and identifying the processes that are most critical to represent accurately in the next generation of numerical ocean and climate models