The Evolution of Overconfidence

Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health, to sports, business, and combat. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing you are better than you are in reality-is advantageous because it serves to increase ambition, morale, resolve, persistence, or the credibility of bluffing, generating a self-fulfilling prophecy in which exaggerated confidence actually increases the probability of success. However, overconfidence also leads to faulty assessments, unrealistic expectations, and hazardous decisions, so it remains a puzzle how such a false belief could evolve or remain stable in a population of competing strategies that include accurate, unbiased beliefs. Here, we present an evolutionary model showing that, counter-intuitively, overconfidence maximizes individual fitness and populations will tend to become overconfident, as long as benefits from contested resources are sufficiently large compared to the cost of competition. In contrast, "rational" unbiased strategies are only stable under limited conditions. The fact that overconfident populations are evolutionarily stable in a wide range of environments may help to explain why overconfidence remains prevalent today, even if it contributes to hubris, market bubbles, financial collapses, policy failures, disasters, and costly wars.Comment: Supplementary Information include

Generalized strategies in the Minority Game

We show analytically how the fluctuations (i.e. standard deviation) in the Minority Game (MG) can be made to decrease below the random coin-toss limit if the agents use more general behavioral strategies. This suppression of the standard deviation results from a cancellation between the actions of a crowd, in which agents act collectively and make the same decision, and an anticrowd in which agents act collectively by making the opposite decision to the crowd.Comment: Revised manuscript: a few minor typos corrected. Results unaffecte

Structural Properties and Relative Stability of (Meta)Stable Ordered, Partially-ordered and Disordered Al-Li Alloy Phases

We resolve issues that have plagued reliable prediction of relative phase stability for solid-solutions and compounds. Due to its commercially important phase diagram, we showcase Al-Li system because historically density-functional theory (DFT) results show large scatter and limited success in predicting the structural properties and stability of solid-solutions relative to ordered compounds. Using recent advances in an optimal basis-set representation of the topology of electronic charge density (and, hence, atomic size), we present DFT results that agree reasonably well with all known experimental data for the structural properties and formation energies of ordered, off-stoichiometric partially-ordered and disordered alloys, opening the way for reliable study in complex alloys.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 2 Table

Quantum Algorithm to Solve Satisfiability Problems

A new quantum algorithm is proposed to solve Satisfiability(SAT) problems by taking advantage of non-unitary transformation in ground state quantum computer. The energy gap scale of the ground state quantum computer is analyzed for 3-bit Exact Cover problems. The time cost of this algorithm on general SAT problems is discussed.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Mixed population Minority Game with generalized strategies

We present a quantitative theory, based on crowd effects, for the market volatility in a Minority Game played by a mixed population. Below a critical concentration of generalized strategy players, we find that the volatility in the crowded regime remains above the random coin-toss value regardless of the "temperature" controlling strategy use. Our theory yields good agreement with numerical simulations.Comment: Revtex file + 3 figure

Temperature Dependent Scattering Rates at the Fermi Surface of Optimally Doped Bi 2212

For optimally doped Bi 2212, scattering rates in the normal state are found to have a linear temperature dependence over most of the Fermi surface. In the immediate vicinity of the (1,0) point, the scattering rates are nearly constant in the normal state, consistent with models in which scattering at this point determines the c-axis transport. In the superconducting state, the scattering rates away from the nodal direction appear to level off and become temperature-independent.Comment: published version, 4 pages, 3 eps figures + 1 jpg figur

Coherent control of injection currents in high-quality films of Bi2Se3

Films of the topological insulator Bi2Se3 are grown by molecular beam epitaxy with in-situ reflection high-energy electron diffraction. The films are shown to be high-quality by X-ray reflectivity and diffraction and atomic-force microscopy. Quantum interference control of photocurrents is observed by excitation with harmonically related pulses and detected by terahertz radiation. The injection current obeys the expected excitation irradiance dependence, showing linear dependence on the fundamental pulse irradiance and square-root irradiance dependence of the frequency-doubled optical pulses. The injection current also follows a sinusoidal relative-phase dependence between the two excitation pulses. These results confirm the third-order nonlinear optical origins of the coherently controlled injection current. Experiments are compared to a tight-binding band structure to illustrate the possible optical transitions that occur in creating the injection current.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure, journal articl