A Bureau of Labor Statistics perspective on bias in the consumer price index (panel discussion)

Consumer price indexes ; Prices

New Evidence on Outlet Substitution Effects in Consumer Price Index Data

In this paper we provide new and detailed evidence on the impact on the U.S. CPI of the appearance and growth of new types of product outlets. Using actual CPI microdata for 2002-2007, we find that the changing mix of outlets had a statistically significantly negative impact on average prices in most of the 14 item food categories we study. In contrast to previous studies of this issue, our approach allows us to examine the effects of changes in outlet mix both across outlet types (such as among large groceries, discount department stores, and warehouse club stores) and within those outlet categories. We also adjust for numerous differences in item characteristics such as brand name, organic certification, and, importantly, package size. In our sample we find that the upward impact on price from increased item quality has offset most of the downward impact of lower-priced outlets. We also provide evidence showing that a simulated “matched-model” approach similar to that used in the CPI yields indexes that differ to a surprising extent from our baseline hedonic indexes, which also hold outlet and item mix constant.Outlet Bias, Consumer Price Index

Reconsideration of Weighting and Updating Procedures in the US CPI

Production capital and technology (i.e., total factor productivity) in U.S. manufacturing are fundamental for understanding output and productivity growth of the U.S. economy but are unobserved at this level of aggregation and must be estimated before being used in empirical analysis. Previously, we developed a method for estimating production capital and technology based on an estimated dynamic structural economic model and applied the method using annual SIC data for 1947-1997 to estimate production capital and technology in U.S. total manufacturing. In this paper, we update this work by reestimating the model and production capital and technology using annual SIC data for 1949-2001 and partly overlapping NAICS data for 1987-2005.Aggregation, Consumer Price Index, CPI, Index Number

Sourcing Substitution and Related Price Index Biases

intermediate input. We define a class of bias problems that arise when purchasers shift their expenditures among sellers charging different prices for units the purchasers view as the same product but that are not regarded as being the same for the purposes of price measurement. For businesses purchasing from other businesses, these sorts of shifts can cause sourcing substitution bias in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Import Price Index (MPI), as well as potentially in the proposed new true Input Price Index (IPI). Similarly, when consumers shift their expenditures for the same products temporally to take advantage of promotional sales or among retailers charging different per unit prices, this can cause a promotions bias problem in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or a CPI outlet substitution bias. We provide a common framework for these bias problems. Ideal target indexes are defined and discussed that could greatly reduce these biases. We also address the challenges national statistics agencies must surmount to produce price index measures more like the specified target ones. 1

Lifetime measurements of excited states in ¹⁶³W and the implications for the anomalous B(E2) ratios in transitional nuclei

This letter reports lifetime measurements of excited states in the odd-N nucleus 163W using the recoil-distance Doppler shift method to probe the core polarising effect of the i13/2 neutron orbital on the underlying soft triaxial even-even core. The ratio B(E2:21/2⁺ → 17/2⁺)/B(E2:17/2⁺ → 13/2⁺) is consistent with the predictions of the collective rotational model. The deduced B(E2) values provide insights into the validity of collective model predictions for heavy transitional nuclei and a geometric origin for the anomalous B(E2) ratios observed in nearby even-even nuclei is proposed