An Assessment of the Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of NSW Agriculture's Wheat Breeding Program

The Wagga wheat breeding program has been operating for over 100 years. In that time, it has released a flow of new wheat varieties for wheat growers in south-eastern Australia. Those varieties have led to increases in both yields and grain quality. The average annual rate of yield improvement in NSW has been 3.2% compared to the average for Australia of 2.4% with a significant proportion of these productivity gains arising from new varieties. In this analysis, the investment in that program from 1980 to 2003 has been evaluated. Given the lags inherent in wheat breeding investments, the benefits from those investments are being measured from 1993 to 2020. The broad structure of the program has remained relatively stable for most of the period since 1980. The program consists of 2-3 wheat breeders, one breeder-pathologist, and a cereal chemist, with appropriate technical and field support, totaling approximately 15 full-time equivalents per year. The costs of the program have averaged approximately $1.2 million per year over the period. In assessing the Wagga wheat breeding program it is important to consider how the industry would have developed without the program. The benefits of the program were measured as the difference in returns from improved wheat varieties in NSW over that period and the returns that would have been achieved in the absence of the Wagga breeding program. The assumption used to determine the impact without the Wagga program was that the rate of yield improvement in NSW would have been the same as for the rest of Australia. For quality, without the Wagga program the assumption was that in southern NSW the increase in quality would have been 20$321 million. The economic benefits of the breeding program are shared by producers, processors and consumers in the wheat industry, some of whom live overseas. Because Australia is largely a price taker on world wheat markets and because the wheat processing and distribution sector in Australia is generally considered to be competitive, most of the benefits of the wheat breeding program are likely to remain with producers. However these gains are offset by declines in the world price in response to advancing technology throughout the world. These economic benefits have positive social consequences, largely through their contribution to the incomes of farmers and those who handle and process wheat in regional NSW. Some of these gains are in the form of new marketing and processing industries around the increasingly specialised industry segments resulting directly from the changes that have occurred in wheat varieties. Perhaps these new skills add to the social capital of towns in the wheat belt of NSW. In environmental terms, the wheat breeding program itself is not likely to have major impacts, since the wheat industry would have been very similar whether or not there was a Wagga breeding program. However, to the extent that improved productivity from the Wagga program's varieties has allowed an expansion of the wheat industry, there could be some negative environmental consequences of the breeding program, such as those arising from the clearing of land, increased cultivation and increased use of herbicides. On the other hand, the high levels of disease resistance developed and maintained has meant that wheat production is not associated with large-scale fungicide use, and hence the danger of chemical contamination of the environment is less than it would have been without the resistance developed in this program. Some of these environmental impacts affect the costs and incomes of wheat farmers and hence are reflected in economic benefits and some spill over to the broader community and have not been valued here. It is not clear that these social and environmental impacts would be much different without the Wagga breeding program, except through the extent to which the Wagga program has allowed the wheat industry in NSW to develop more than it otherwise would have. Without the Wagga program the slower gains in yield and quality would also be associated with some social and environmental impacts, and it is the difference that is critical in evaluating the Wagga program. The costs of this program have been met partly by the NSW taxpayers through NSW Agriculture and partly by the grains industry through levies from the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC). The recent introduction of variety royalty payments ("end-point royalties") has not yet led to significant funding, but may be expected to do so in the future. The nature of the outputs of plant breeding programs is that there are large economic benefits that flow directly to producers, processors and consumers in the industry. However the social and environmental impacts on the broader community, while not explicitly valued here, are considered to be small relative to economic benefits and relative to some other programs of NSW Agriculture that have been evaluated. Hence it is appropriate that the industry, though GRDC levies and royalties on production, has increasingly funded the operations of the wheat breeding program. Recent institutional changes for the wheat breeding program have made it even more commercially-based for the future and less reliant on government funding. The new institutional arrangements for wheat breeding programs and the strengthening role of the private sector in supplying varieties traditionally supplied by the public sector mean that the place of public wheat breeding programs is being re-assessed. A key question is whether publicly-operated programs, can offer some additional benefits either to the industry or to the community, which would not result from the complete privatisation of the wheat breeding sector. While those issues have not been addressed directly in this analysis, the results indicate that past investments in public wheat breeding program at Wagga have certainly been a productive use of public funds over the past 20 years or so.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

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On the He II Emission In Eta Carinae and the Origin of Its Spectroscopic Events

We describe and analyze Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations of transient emission near 4680 {\AA} in Eta Car, reported earlier by Steiner & Damineli (2004). If, as seems probable, this is He II $\lambda$4687, then it is a unique clue to Eta Car's 5.5-year cycle. According to our analysis, several aspects of this feature support a mass-ejection model of the observed spectroscopic events, and not an eclipse model. The He II emission appeared in early 2003, grew to a brief maximum during the 2003.5 spectroscopic event, and then abruptly disappeared. It did not appear in any other HST spectra before or after the event. The peak brightness was larger than previously reported, and is difficult to explain even if one allows for an uncertainty factor of order 3. The stellar wind must provide a temporary larger-than-normal energy supply, and we describe a special form of radiative amplification that may also be needed. These characteristics are consistent with a class of mass-ejection or wind-disturbance scenarios, which have implications for the physical structure and stability of Eta Car.Comment: 47 pages (including all appendices, tabs, & figs), 9 figures, 3 tables; submitted to Astrophysical Journal (2005 March 29), accepted for publication in Ap

Inverse Fourier transform technique of measuring averaged absorption cross section in the reverberation chamber and Monte Carlo study of its uncertainty

The averaged absorption cross section (ACS) of a lossy object characterises its ability to capture power from diffused electromagnetic waves. The averaged ACS is very important in many EMC research areas such as indoor wireless channel modelling and human safety exposure study. The measurement of averaged ACS in a reverberation chamber can be achieved by measuring the rate of power loss in the time domain, however this technique requires dense frequency sampling for taking the inverse Fourier transform, which is very time consuming. A new scenario which accelerates the measurement speed is presented in this paper. It combines the technique of non-linear curve fitting to the power delay profile, segmented frequency sweeping and continuous mode stirring. The scenario was validated by measuring the averaged ACS of a hollow plastic sphere filled with deionized water in an EMC reverberation chamber. Measurement results showed a good accordance with the simulations and the measurement uncertainty was studied numerically with the Monte Carlo method

Mahi-mahi (Coryphaena hippurus) life development: morphological, physiological, behavioral and molecular phenotypes.

BackgroundMahi-mahi (Coryphaena hippurus) is a commercially and ecologically important fish species that is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical waters. Biological attributes and reproductive capacities of mahi-mahi make it a tractable model for experimental studies. In this study, life development of cultured mahi-mahi from the zygote stage to adult has been described.ResultsA comprehensive developmental table has been created reporting development as primarily detailed observations of morphology. Additionally, physiological, behavioral, and molecular landmarks have been described to significantly contribute in the understanding of mahi life development.ConclusionRemarkably, despite the vast difference in adult size, many developmental landmarks of mahi map quite closely onto the development and growth of Zebrafish and other warm-water, active Teleost fishes

Halo Star Streams in the Solar Neighborhood

We have assembled a sample of halo stars in the solar neighborhood to look for halo substructure in velocity and angular momentum space. Our sample includes red giants, RR Lyrae, and red horizontal branch stars within 2.5 kpc of the Sun with [Fe/H] less than -1.0. It was chosen to include stars with accurate distances, space velocities, and metallicities as well as well-quantified errors. We confirm the existence of the streams found by Helmi and coworkers, which we refer to as the H99 streams. These streams have a double-peaked velocity distribution in the z direction. We use the results of modeling of the H99 streams by Helmi and collaborators to test how one might use v_z velocity information and radial velocity information to detect kinematic substructure in the halo. We find that detecting the H99 streams with radial velocities alone would require a large sample. We use the velocity distribution of the H99 streams to estimate their age. From our model of the progenitor of the H99 streams, we determine that it was accreted between 6 and 9 Gyr ago. The H99 streams have [alpha/Fe] abundances similar to other halo stars in the solar neighborhood, suggesting that the gas that formed these stars were enriched mostly by Type II SNe. We have also discovered in angular momentum space two other possible substructures, which we refer to as the retrograde and prograde outliers. The retrograde outliers are likely to be halo substructure, but the prograde outliers are most likely part of the smooth halo. The retrograde outliers have significant structure in the v_phi direction and show a range of [alpha/Fe]. The methods presented in this paper can be used to exploit the kinematic information present in future large databases like RAVE, SDSSII/SEGUE, and Gaia.Comment: 46 pages, 13 figures, and 9 tables. Minor changes to text to match proofed version of the paper. Low resolution figures. High resolution version at http://www.astro.wisc.edu/~kepley/solar_streams.p