Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Science and Ideology in Economic, Political, and Social Thought

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, then by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences. The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

The Science Performance of JWST as Characterized in Commissioning

This paper characterizes the actual science performance of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), as determined from the six month commissioning period. We summarize the performance of the spacecraft, telescope, science instruments, and ground system, with an emphasis on differences from pre-launch expectations. Commissioning has made clear that JWST is fully capable of achieving the discoveries for which it was built. Moreover, almost across the board, the science performance of JWST is better than expected; in most cases, JWST will go deeper faster than expected. The telescope and instrument suite have demonstrated the sensitivity, stability, image quality, and spectral range that are necessary to transform our understanding of the cosmos through observations spanning from near-earth asteroids to the most distant galaxies.Comment: 5th version as accepted to PASP; 31 pages, 18 figures; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1538-3873/acb29

Higher environmental relative moldiness index values measured in homes of adults with asthma, rhinitis, or both conditions

Higher values of the environmental relative moldiness index (ERMI), a DNA-based method for quantifying indoor molds, have been associated with asthma in children. In this study, settled dust samples were collected from the homes of adults with asthma, rhinitis, or both conditions (n=139 homes) in Northern California. The ERMI values for these samples were compared to those from dust collected in homes from the same geographic region randomly selected as part of the 2006 American Healthy Home Survey (n=44). The median ERMI value in homes of adult with airway disease (6) was significantly greater than median ERMI value (2) in the randomly selected homes (p<0.0001). In this study in Northern California, the homes of adults with asthma had ERMI values consistent with a heavier burden of indoor mold than that measured in other homes from the same region

Middle Pleistocene Thames-Medway deposits at Clacton-on-Sea

In 1987 an archaeological investigation was undertaken during redevelopment of the erstwhile Butlin’s holiday camp at Clacton-on-Sea, on the grounds that the Middle Pleistocene Clacton Channel Deposits, containing the type-Clactonian Palaeolithic industry, were known to extend beneath the site. Excavations for a storm-drain allowed sampling at points along a longitudinal traverse of the main Clacton Channel. Analysis of these samples has provided new palaeontological information, including data pertaining to the rise in relative sea level during the interglacial represented. Systematic studies of molluscs and ostracods, the latter undertaken at Clacton for the first time, have been particularly valuable. Information from the Butlin’s site supplements evidence previously gathered from the West Cliff section and from other localities at Clacton. The calcareous clay (‘marl’) that underlies the Clacton golf course extends beneath Butlin’s, where it was found to be part of the Freshwater Beds, not the Estuarine Beds, as hitherto supposed. The Clacton Estuarine Beds, restricted to the eastern end of the site, have their base just below 2 m O.D., implying that their superposition upon the Clacton Freshwater Beds occurred when relative sea level in this area was close to present ordnance datum. Correlation of the Clacton Channel Deposits with the interglacial immediately following the Anglian/Elsterian Stage appears secure; equivalence with Oxygen Isotope Stage 11 of the oceanic sequence is most probable. A borehole survey and subsequent excavation revealed a Holocene sequence of unlithified tufa and organic sediments beneath part of the site

The earliest record of human activity in northern Europe

The colonization of Eurasia by early humans is a key event after their spread out of Africa, but the nature, timing and ecological context of the earliest human occupation of northwest Europe is uncertain and has been the subject of intense debate1. The southern Caucasus was occupied about 1.8 million years (Myr) ago2, whereas human remains from Atapuerca-TD6, Spain (more than 780 kyr ago)3 and Ceprano, Italy (about 800 kyr ago)4 show that early Homo had dispersed to the Mediterranean hinterland before the Brunhes–Matuyama magnetic polarity reversal (780 kyr ago). Until now, the earliest uncontested artefacts from northern Europe were much younger, suggesting that humans were unable to colonize northern latitudes until about 500 kyr ago5, 6. Here we report flint artefacts from the Cromer Forest-bed Formation at Pakefield (52° N), Suffolk, UK, from an interglacial sequence yielding a diverse range of plant and animal fossils. Event and lithostratigraphy, palaeomagnetism, amino acid geochronology and biostratigraphy indicate that the artefacts date to the early part of the Brunhes Chron (about 700 kyr ago) and thus represent the earliest unequivocal evidence for human presence north of the Alps