A Note on the Use of Markov Chains in Forecasting Store Choice

Ehrenberg\u27s sweeping criticism of Markov brand switching models [3] highlights many shortcomings of these models for aggregate analysis of consumer behavior. While it has been pointed out that some of his criticisms are not entirely correct [13], one of Ehrenberg\u27s themes is unquestionably valid. The models tend to break down empirically due to violations of important Markovian stability assumptions [14]. A situation in which the assumptions of the model appear less restrictive is short-run forecasting of store choice behavior of individual families

An Ion Ejection Technique for the Study of Ion-Molecule Reactions with Ion Cyclotron Resonance Spectroscopy

A novel technique involving a straightforward modification of an ion cyclotron resonance spectrometer has been developed which utilizes the excitation of the characteristic oscillatory motion of the ions, due to the trapping field, for ejecting ions from the cyclotron resonance cell. By pulsing the rf ejection field and referencing the detection system to the pulsing frequency, a spectrum of ions whose number density is modulated by the pulsed ejection field is obtained. This is directly applicable in studying ion-molecule reactions for the determination of product ion distributions, even when other processes, such as direct ionization or concurrent ion-molecule reactions, contribute to product ions of interest

Risk of asthmatic episodes in children exposed to sulfur dioxide stack emissions from a refinery point source in Montreal, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the respiratory effects of short-term exposures to petroleum refinery emissions in young children. This study is an extension of an ecologic study that found an increased rate of hospitalizations for respiratory conditions among children living near petroleum refineries in Montreal (Canada). METHODS: We used a time-stratified case-crossover design to assess the risk of asthma episodes in relation to short-term variations in sulfur dioxide levels among children 2-4 years of age living within 0.5-7.5 km of the refinery stacks. Health data used to measure asthma episodes included emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions from 1996 to 2004. We estimated daily levels of SO2 at the residence of children using a) two fixed-site SO2 monitors located near the refineries and b) the AERMOD (American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model) atmospheric dispersion model. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios associated with an increase in the interquartile range of daily SO2 mean and peak exposures (31.2 ppb for AERMOD peaks). We adjusted for temperature, relative humidity, and regional/urban background air pollutant levels. RESULTS: The risks of asthma ED visits and hospitalizations were more pronounced for same-day (lag 0) SO2 peak levels than for mean levels on the same day, or for other lags: the adjusted odds ratios estimated for same-day SO2 peak levels from AERMOD were 1.10 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00-1.22] and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.10-1.82), over the interquartile range, for ED visits and hospital admissions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term episodes of increased SO2 exposures from refinery stack emissions were associated with a higher number of asthma episodes in nearby children

A counterfactual study of the Charge of the Light Brigade

We use a mathematical model to perform a counterfactual study of the 1854 Charge of the Light Brigade. We first calibrate the model with historical data so that it reproduces the actual charge’s outcome. We then adjust the model to see how that outcome might have changed if the Heavy Brigade had joined the charge, and/or if the charge had targeted the Russian forces on the heights instead of those in the valley. The results suggest that all of the counterfactual attacks would have led to heavier British casualties. However, a charge by both brigades along the valley might plausibly have yielded a British victory

Geographical variation in certification rates of blindness and sight impairment in England, 2008-2009

To examine and interpret the variation in the incidence of blindness and sight impairment in England by PCT, as reported by the Certificate of Vision Impairment (CVI). Design: Analysis of national certification data. Setting: All Primary Care Trusts, England. Participants: 23 773 CVI certifications issued from 2008 to 2009. Main Outcome measures: Crude and Age standardised rates of CVI data for blindness and sight loss by PCT. Methods: The crude and age standardised CVI rates per 100 000 were calculated with Spearman's rank correlation used to assess whether there was any evidence of association between CVI rates with Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and the Programme Spend for Vision. Results: There was high-level variation, almost 11-fold (coefficient of variation 38%) in standardised CVI blindness and sight impairment annual certification rates across PCTs. The mean rate was 43.7 and the SD 16.7. We found little evidence of an association between the rate of blindness and sight impairment with either the IMD or Programme Spend on Vision. Conclusions: The wide geographical variation we found raises questions about the quality of the data and whether there is genuine unmet need for prevention of sight loss. It is a concern for public health practitioners who will be interpreting these data locally and nationally as the CVI data will form the basis of the public health indicator ‘preventable sight loss’. Poor-quality data and inadequate interpretation will only create confusion if not addressed adequately from the outset. There is an urgent need to address the shortcomings of the current data collection system and to educate all public health practitioners

Individual sequences in large sets of gene sequences may be distinguished efficiently by combinations of shared sub-sequences

BACKGROUND: Most current DNA diagnostic tests for identifying organisms use specific oligonucleotide probes that are complementary in sequence to, and hence only hybridise with the DNA of one target species. By contrast, in traditional taxonomy, specimens are usually identified by 'dichotomous keys' that use combinations of characters shared by different members of the target set. Using one specific character for each target is the least efficient strategy for identification. Using combinations of shared bisectionally-distributed characters is much more efficient, and this strategy is most efficient when they separate the targets in a progressively binary way. RESULTS: We have developed a practical method for finding minimal sets of sub-sequences that identify individual sequences, and could be targeted by combinations of probes, so that the efficient strategy of traditional taxonomic identification could be used in DNA diagnosis. The sizes of minimal sub-sequence sets depended mostly on sequence diversity and sub-sequence length and interactions between these parameters. We found that 201 distinct cytochrome oxidase subunit-1 (CO1) genes from moths (Lepidoptera) were distinguished using only 15 sub-sequences 20 nucleotides long, whereas only 8–10 sub-sequences 6–10 nucleotides long were required to distinguish the CO1 genes of 92 species from the 9 largest orders of insects. CONCLUSION: The presence/absence of sub-sequences in a set of gene sequences can be used like the questions in a traditional dichotomous taxonomic key; hybridisation probes complementary to such sub-sequences should provide a very efficient means for identifying individual species, subtypes or genotypes. Sequence diversity and sub-sequence length are the major factors that determine the numbers of distinguishing sub-sequences in any set of sequences