On log-transformations, vector autoregressions and empirical evidence

This paper re-analyses a bivariate US macroeconomic time series, previously used to demonstrate the need for bias corrections in the forecasts of levels of variables, modelled and originally forecast using a V AR after log-transformation. It is demonstrated that claims previously made for these data, concerning improvements in forecast accuracy following bias correction, were not well founded. Simple univariate forecasting procedures are shown to be more successful for these data than a cointegrated V AR, with or without bias correction. In the light of previous empirical work, such findings could have been expected. This further reinforces the call for an answer to why well-motivated theoretical advances in time series analysis often do not lead to noticeable improvements in out-of-sample forecast accuracy

Nutrition in Rehabilitation

Diet has been implicated as a risk factor in atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, osteoporosis, obesity, high blood pressure and chronic liver and kidney diseases. These diseases include almost all of the most common non-traumatic causes of death in the United States. It has been suggested that many physicians do not have the opportunity for specific training in nutrition while in medical school. Many studies have shown that patients admitted to a hospital are at risk of malnutrition and that this risk will increase as length of hospital stay increases. Other studies suggested nutritional deficiencies may result in delayed wound healing, major and minor complications, and increased mortality. These complications increase length of stay and hospital costs. A physical therapist, as part of a team, has the chance to impart basic nutritional information to patients. This information may be in addition to information provided to the patient by a physician, nurse, dietician or other health care worker. Patients with improved nutrition benefit from disease prevention through elimination of this risk factor. Patients with improved nutrition also benefit directly from increased energy to participate in physical therapy. This paper will be a review of the literature on the topics of prevalence of malnutrition in hospitals, physician education in nutrition, and nutrition in wound healing to summarize recent findings. From these findings, conclusions concerning nutrition in rehabilitation and recommendations for physical therapists will be provided

Selection and Estimation of Trigonometric Component Models for Seasonal Time Series

We present a method for investigating the evolution of trend and seasonality in an observed time series. A general model is fitted to a residual spectrum, using trigonometric components to represent the seasonality. We show graphically how well the fitted spectrum captures the evidence for evolving seasonality associated with the different seasonal frequencies. After fitting a seasonal IMA model, the method requires only ordinary least squares estimation. A submodel which adequately fits the data can then be conveniently selected. We apply the method to two time series and discuss the implications for time series forecastin

Tackling the teacher shortage – near-peer mentoring of STEM students for outreach and engagement using trainee teachers

This poster outlines a pilot scheme for delivering CPD training to undergraduate STEM students, utilising trainee science teachers as “near-peer” mentors to enhance student volunteers’ ability to undertake science outreach activities in local schools and the wider community. The driving force for this project is to tackle the teacher shortage in STEM subjects, which it is hoped can be achieved in a number of ways. The trainee teachers themselves will develop their professional skills by acting as mentors while STEM students will become more closely engaged with the profession, current pedagogy and young people within schools. This effectively serves as a marketing tool which potentially increases the likelihood of these students applying for Initial Teacher Training (ITT). Finally, the long-term goal is to enhance children’s enthusiasm for science at an early stage, with a view to widening participation and improving uptake of STEM subjects at A-level and in Higher Education – nurturing the interest and talent of a future generation of teachers

CUMBRIA (Reino Unido) (Inglaterra). Central. Mapas generales (1789). 1:65400

Comprende la zona central del condado inglés de CumbriaEscala gráfica de 5 millas [= 12,3 cm]. Coordenadas de la ciudad de Keswick, referidas, al parecer, al meridiano de Greenwich (O 3°01'30''/N 54°03'30''). Orientado con lis en rosa de ocho vientosOrografía a trazosTítulo enmarcado en un paisaje montañosoForma parte de la Colección Mendoz

Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions.

Explosive volcanic eruptions affect climate, but how climate change affects the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unexplored. We combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to today, a consequence of future tropopause height rise and unchanged eruptive column height. In contrast, global-mean radiative forcing, stratospheric warming and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30%, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively. These changes are driven by an aerosol size decrease, mainly caused by the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and an increase in eruptive column height. Quantifying changes in both eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is therefore key to assessing the climate response to future eruptions