IDENTIFICATION AND AN L.P. ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE PLANS FOR DAIRY FARM ADJUSTMENT IN SOUTH-EASTERN MINNESOTA

Livestock Production/Industries,

The didactic value of linking models: experiences from the LEI model funnel

The complexity of agri-environmental economic issues is such that a model that is fully consistent at all levels of aggregation and all type of questions to be addressed is not available at the Agricultural Economics Research Institute in the Hague LEI. Such a model is probably also not feasible. At LEI this problem is solved by linking models at different scales of analysis: global economic, national economy-wide, regional agricultural, national spatial and farm levels. This linked model system enlarges scope and consistency of the analysis. The goal of the model linking, however, is not a full integration and, ultimately, simultaneous optimization of the models. Therefore, the different models of the LEI model funnel are often rather loosely linked. Hence, it is not surprising that the models sometimes produce different results even for the shared variables. This article describes the difficulties to share and exchange information between different models and identifies possible solutions which aim at a more consistent analysis along the models combined at LEI while maintaining the diversity of modelling approaches.economic models, combined models, quantitative policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Effects of agri-environmental measures and changes in EU single farm payments on Dutch agriculture

Part of the Health check of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union in 2008, will be a discussion of the linkage between direct payments to farmers and the contribution of agricultural production to social important values. The objective of this paper is to analyse the economic and environmental effects of extra region specific environmental measures and a redistribution of direct payments to the Dutch agricultural sector in 2020. In doing so a chain of models is used from the dairy farm level to the regional sector level in the Netherlands to the European sector level. From the dairy farm model it is found that the extra-environmental measures result in a decrease in the number of dairy cows per ha and a decrease in the gross margin per ha in the regions at hand. At maximum the gross margin decreases with about € 1,300 per ha. This is the case on intensive types of dairy farms in the Nature2000 areas. Linking and aggregating these results to the regional sector level and using the sector model of the Netherlands it is found that income from dairy farming at sector level and national milk production decreases with about 6%. Emission of ammonia decreases with 11% and Nitrogen (N) surplus at soil level decreases with 22%. However, economic and environmental results can be very different per type of dairy farm and province.economic models, model linking, policy, regions, dairy farming, environment and nature, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Livestock Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF BST ON THE MINNESOTA MILK SUPPLY

Livestock Production/Industries,

The Impact of Milk Quota Abolishment on Dutch Agriculture and Economy: Applying an Agricultural Sector Model Integrated Into a Mixed Input-Output Model

A modelling system is presented and used to analyse the impact of milk quota abolishment on Dutch agriculture and economy. The modelling system consists of a regionalised, agri-environmental, partial equilibrium, mathematical programming model of agriculture supply in the Netherlands integrated into a mixed input-output model. It was found that abolition of the milk quota system has large impacts on milk production and livestock numbers and composition. The latter is explained by the strict mineral and manure policies in the Netherlands; an increase in the numbers of dairy cows leaves less room for other livestock. It is also found that, although the total effect on gross value added in the Dutch economy is limited, the effects for individual industries can be large.Mathematical programming, Manure markets, Input-Output, Dairy policy, Agribusiness,

Effects of abolition of the EU milk quota system for Dutch agriculture and environment

Following model calculations presented in this paper he removal of the EU quota system will result in 21% more milk production in the Netherlands. Large dairy farms expand and achieve higher income levels compared to a scenario with quota continuation, as increasing scale of production and decrease of quota costs outweigh price reductions and extra manure disposal costs. Production in the category of relatively small farms, however, declines and farms in this category will leave business. Sector income will only marginally fall while production expansion will remain within the limits of present environmental policies related to manure and nutrient applications.milk quota, mathematical programming models, environment, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Future of European agriculture after the Health Check

This paper identifies major future trends and driving factors and perspectives and challenges resulting from them for European agriculture and food sectors until the year 2020. The focus of the paper is an analysis of key driving forces and the provision of a well developed reference scenario under the assumption of continued CAP reform and taking into account the framework discussions in the Doha Development Round. To assess the impact of policies the paper also examines a liberalisation (no support) and regionalization (maximum support) scenario. In terms of policy options the paper shows that the structural change process in agriculture (measured in terms of agricultural share in GDP) is a long-term process that continues with or without policy changes. The EU is facing an increasing diversity of structure and structural adjustment. The livestock sector (especially cattle) faces important challenges and restructuring. Alternative policy settings may not produce very different effect on the overall production as factor markets adjust. However, the regional impact on the environment and on the number of farms may prove to be more significant.economic modelling, future, CAP policy options, structural change, Agricultural and Food Policy,

SCENAR2020: Future of European Agriculture under Different Policy Options, the economic modelling framework

This paper identifies major future trends and driving factors and perspectives and challenges resulting from them for European agriculture and food sectors until the year 2020. The focus of the paper is an analysis of key driving forces and the provision of a well developed reference scenario under the assumption of continued CAP reform and taking into account the framework discussions in the Doha Development Round. To assess the impact of policies the paper also examines a liberalisation (no support) and regionalisation (max support) scenario. In terms of policy options the paper shows that structural change process in agriculture is a long-term process that continues with or without policy changes. EU is facing an increasing diversity of structure and structural adjustment. The livestock sector faces important challenges and restructuring. Alternative policy settings may not produce very different effect on the overall production. However, the regional impact may prove to be more significant.Economic Modelling, Future, CAP Policy Options, Structural Change, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,