Shifts in the Nineteenth-Century Phillips Curve Relationship

This paper examines shifts in the output effects of unanticipated inflation in the nineteenth-century United States by estimatinga Lucas-type aggregate supply function over the 1840-1900 period. It is shown that, in contrast to the twentieth-century experience in which there has been a pronounced movement toward greater cyclical price rigidity, the nineteenth-century output response to unanticipated price changes was roughly stable over the period. Such stability is also particularly interesting in view of the dramatic changes in communications and transportation technology, particularly the telegraph and the railroad, which greatly facilitated information flows and thereby should have forced the price-surprise coefficient downward. Other factors which may have offset the influence of these improvements in information technology on the price-surprise coefficient include the reduced general price level variability due to the gold standard in the postbellum period and the possibility that the net effects of such improvements may in fact have been small because shocks were able to spread more rapidly aswell. Finally, the perceived increase in cyclical price rigidity over the nineteenth century in the raw data is shown to have resulted not from a change in price-surprise coefficient hut rather from an increased degree of persistence or inertia in the economy.

Control of Complex Dynamic Systems by Neural Networks

This paper considers the use of neural networks (NN's) in controlling a nonlinear, stochastic system with unknown process equations. The NN is used to model the resulting unknown control law. The approach here is based on using the output error of the system to train the NN controller without the need to construct a separate model (NN or other type) for the unknown process dynamics. To implement such a direct adaptive control approach, it is required that connection weights in the NN be estimated while the system is being controlled. As a result of the feedback of the unknown process dynamics, however, it is not possible to determine the gradient of the loss function for use in standard (back-propagation-type) weight estimation algorithms. Therefore, this paper considers the use of a new stochastic approximation algorithm for this weight estimation, which is based on a 'simultaneous perturbation' gradient approximation that only requires the system output error. It is shown that this algorithm can greatly enhance the efficiency over more standard stochastic approximation algorithms based on finite-difference gradient approximations

Electron Cloud Buildup Characterization Using Shielded Pickup Measurements and Custom Modeling Code at CESRTA

The Cornell Electron Storage Ring Test Accelerator experimental program includes investigations into electron cloud buildup, applying various mitigation techniques in custom vacuum chambers. Among these are two 1.1-m-long sections located symmetrically in the east and west arc regions. These chambers are equipped with pickup detectors shielded against the direct beam-induced signal. They detect cloud electrons migrating through an 18-mm-diameter pattern of small holes in the top of the chamber. A digitizing oscilloscope is used to record the signals, providing time-resolved information on cloud development. Carbon-coated, TiN-coated and uncoated aluminum chambers have been tested. Electron and positron beams of 2.1, 4.0 and 5.3 GeV with a variety of bunch populations and spacings in steps of 4 and 14 ns have been used. Here we report on results from the ECLOUD modeling code which highlight the sensitivity of these measurements to the physical phenomena determining cloud buildup such as the photoelectron production azimuthal and energy distributions, and the secondary yield parameters including the true secondary, re-diffused, and elastic yield values.Comment: Presented at ECLOUD'12: Joint INFN-CERN-EuCARD-AccNet Workshop on Electron-Cloud Effects, La Biodola, Isola d'Elba, Italy, 5-9 June 2012; CERN-2013-002, pp. 241-25

Vector unparticle contributions to lepton g-2

The generic unparticle propagator may be modified in two ways. Breaking the conformal symmetry effectively adds a mass term to the propagator, while considering vacuum polarization corrections adds a width-like term. Both of these modifications result naturally from the coupling of the unparticle to standard model (SM) fields. We explore how these modifications to the propagator affect the calculation of the lepton anomalous magnetic moment using an integral approximation of the propagator that is accurate for $d\lesssim1.5$, where $d$ is the unparticle dimension. We find that for this range of $d$ and various values of the conformal breaking scale $\mu$, the value of $g-2$ calculated when allowing various SM fermions to run in the unparticle self-energy loops does not significantly deviate from the value of $g-2$ when the width term is ignored. We also investigate the limits on a characteristic mass scale for the unparticle sector as a function of $\mu$ and $d$.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables. Included neutrinos in loops. Added reference

Civil applications of high-speed rotorcraft and powered-lift aircraft configurations

Advanced subsonic vertical and short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) aircraft configurations offer new transportation options for civil applications. Described is a range of vehicles from low-disk to high-disk loading aircraft, including high-speed rotorcraft, V/STOL aircraft, and short takeoff and landing (STOL) aircraft. The status and advantages of the various configurations are described. Some of these show promise for relieving congestion in high population-density regions and providing transportation opportunities for low population-density regions

V/STOL aircraft configurations and opportunities in the Pacific Basin

Advanced aircraft configurations offer new transportation options for the Pacific Basin. Described is a range of vehicles from low-disk to high-disk loading aircraft, including high-speed rotorcraft, subsonic vertical and short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) aircraft, and subsonic short takeoff and landing (STOL) aircraft. The status and advantages of the various configurations are described. Some of these show promise for satisfying many of the transportation requirements of the Pacific Basin; as such, they could revolutionize short-haul transportation in that region

Aircraft technology opportunities for the 21st Century

New aircraft technologies are presented that have the potential to expand the air transportation system and reduce congestion through new operating capabilities, and at the same time provide greater levels of safety and environmental compatibility. Both current and planned civil aeronautics technology at the NASA Ames, Lewis, and Langley Research Centers are addressed. The complete spectrum of current aircraft and new vehicle concepts is considered including rotorcraft (helicopters and tiltrotors), vertical and short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) and short takeoff and landing (STOL) aircraft, subsonic transports, high speed transports, and hypersonic/transatmospheric vehicles. New technologies for current aircraft will improve efficiency, affordability, safety, and environmental compatibility. Research and technology promises to enable development of new vehicles that will revolutionize or greatly change the transportation system. These vehicles will provide new capabilities which will lead to enormous market opportunities and economic growth, as well as improve the competitive position of the U.S. aerospace industry

Fluctuating fortunes and Hawaiian house prices

Real estate prices in a local market can be driven by an identifiable group of purchasers. In Hawaii, residents of both the U.S. mainland and Japan have been significant purchasers of homes. An analysis suggests that house prices in Hawaii were driven primarily by purchasers from the U.S. mainland for most of the 1975–2008 period. But, during Japan’s “bubble economy” in the late 1980s and immediately thereafter, house prices in Hawaii were driven primarily by demand from Japan.Housing - Prices - Hawaii