Modelling the wheat sector in South Africa

In this study, the structure of the South African wheat market is analysed using economic theory and econometric modelling techniques. The model is used to make baseline projections regarding the supply and use of wheat in South Africa and to analyse the impacts of various policy alternatives on the wheat sector for the period 2004–2008. Results indicate that the area harvested in the summer as well as winter region will decrease over time. Domestic consumption will marginally increase over time, which will result in higher levels of imports. The ability of the model to simulate policy shocks is illustrated by means of simulating the impact of the elimination of the wheat import tariff on the wheat sector.Industrial Organization,

Facilitating decision-making in agriculture by using a system of models

This article presents a deterministic farm-level model developed to link to an existing partial equilibrium sector-level model of the grain and livestock sectors of South Africa. The objective is to create a linked system of models consisting of a sector- and farm-level model with the capability to analyse the likely effects of changes in policies and markets at both the sector and representative farm level in South Africa. A representative farm in the Free State Province is used to validate the farm-level model. The farm-level model is used to simulate a baseline as well as two scenarios of the representative farm for the period 2003 to 2010. Results indicate that the farm-level model simulates the representative farm rather accurately compared to historical data. The baseline and scenario results indicate that the linked system of models can be useful for policy and business decision-makers to analyse the impact of change in policies and markets at both the sector- and farm level.Farm Management,

Modelling the impact of the ‘Fast Track’ land reform policy on Zimbabwe’s maize sector

This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of the ‘fast track’ land reform policy on maize production in Zimbabwe through the construction of a partial equilibrium model that depicts what could have happened if no further policy shifts had taken place after 2000. The resimulated baseline model was used to make projections based on the various trends of exogenous variables in 2000. This means that the model generated an artificial data set based on what the maize market would have looked like under a set of the pre-2000 existent policy conditions. The ‘fast track’ land reform policy was thus assessed based on the performance of the baseline model using a range of “what if” assumptions. Commercial area harvested was 39 % less than what could have been harvested in 2001, and declining by negative 80.57 % in 2007. Results showed total maize production was 61.85 % and 43.88 % less than what could have been produced in the 2002 and 2005 droughts, respectively. This may imply that droughts would have been less severe if the ‘fast track’ land reform was not implemented. Therefore, the ‘fast track’ land reform had a negative effect on maize production. Thus, the econometric model system developed provided a basis through which the effects of the FTLRP on the maize market may be analyzed and understood.‘fast track’ land reform programme, partial equilibrium model, maize, Zimbabwe, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use,

Integrating Agricultural Input Expenditure into a South African Agricultural Sector’s Partial Equilibrium Model

Agricultural inputs expenditure has not been widely incorporated in most partial equilibrium models. Moreover, input costs are treated exogenous and the recursive link between input and output side of the sector is overlooked in few of the models that attempts to incorporate input expenditures. The study has addressed both issues by integrating agricultural input expenditures into the South African sectoral partial equilibrium model by endogenising input costs and recursively linking both input and output side of the agricultural sectors to enhance the results of a standard partial equilibrium model in analysing the effect of policies on agricultural sector.Agricultural Finance, Farm Management,

MODELLING THE MARKET OUTLOOK AND POLICY ALTERNATIVES FOR THE WHEAT SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA

In this study, the structure of the South African wheat market is analysed using economic theory and econometric modelling techniques. The developed model is used to make baseline projections regarding the supply and use of wheat in South Africa and to analyse the impacts of various policy alternatives on the wheat sector for the period 2002 2008. Results indicate that after an initial decline in the area harvested in 2003, the area harvested will increase over time. Domestic consumption will gradually decrease over time, which will result in lower levels of imports and higher level of exports. Three policy scenarios are analysed, the elimination of the import tariff for wheat, a twelve percent depreciation in the exchange rate, and the convergence of the elimination of the import tariff and the 12% depreciation in the exchange rate.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Impact of Electrostatic Forces in Contact Mode Scanning Force Microscopy

In this $\ll$ contribution we address the question to what extent surface charges affect contact-mode scanning force microscopy measurements. % We therefore designed samples where we could generate localized electric field distributions near the surface as and when required. % We performed a series of experiments where we varied the load of the tip, the stiffness of the cantilever and the hardness of the sample surface. % It turned out that only for soft cantilevers could an electrostatic interaction between tip and surface charges be detected, irrespective of the surface properties, i.\,e. basically regardless its hardness. % We explain these results through a model based on the alteration of the tip-sample potential by the additional electric field between charged tip and surface charges

Model Closure and Price Formation Under Switching Grain Market Regimes in South Africa

This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce more reliable projections of the evolution of the sector under alternative shocks.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

Model closure and price formation under switching grain market regimes in South Africa

This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce more reliable projections of the evolution of the sector under alternative shocks.Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,