31 research outputs found

    Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

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    This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance

    Heat vulnerability and adaptive capacities: findings of a household survey in Ludwigsburg, BW, Germany

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    In 2019, record-setting temperatures in Europe adversely affected human health and wellbeing (WMO 2020) and cities—thus, people in urban areas suffered particularly under heat stress. However, not only heat stress but also the differential vulnerability of people exposed is key when defining adaptation priorities. Up to now, local data on vulnerability and particularly adaptive capacities is rather rare. Various aspects of human vulnerability to heat and capacities to adapt to heat stress in urban areas still have to be explored and assessed, for example in terms of the adaptation at home, during work or while commuting to work. The paper presents new findings of a household survey on how and where different groups experience heat stress and how they assess their susceptibility and capacities to cope and adapt. The findings are based on a survey conducted in the medium-sized city of Ludwigsburg, Germany. Findings show significant linkages and correlations between socio-economic factors and heat vulnerability and capacities to respond. The analysis gives special emphasis to relationships between willingness to implement adaptive measures to reduce heat stress risks and risk perception and adaptive capacities. Particularly, the analysis of future adaptation options and the ability and willingness of different households to implement these provides new insights on the differential capacities to adapt and the need for tailor-made transformation programs.Universität Stuttgart (1023

    Heat vulnerability and adaptive capacities: findings of a household survey in Ludwigsburg, BW, Germany

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    <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>In 2019, record-setting temperatures in Europe adversely affected human health and wellbeing (WMO 2020) and cities—thus, people in urban areas suffered particularly under heat stress. However, not only heat stress but also the differential vulnerability of people exposed is key when defining adaptation priorities. Up to now, local data on vulnerability and particularly adaptive capacities is rather rare. Various aspects of human vulnerability to heat and capacities to adapt to heat stress in urban areas still have to be explored and assessed, for example in terms of the adaptation at home, during work or while commuting to work. The paper presents new findings of a household survey on how and where different groups experience heat stress and how they assess their susceptibility and capacities to cope and adapt. The findings are based on a survey conducted in the medium-sized city of Ludwigsburg, Germany. Findings show significant linkages and correlations between socio-economic factors and heat vulnerability and capacities to respond. The analysis gives special emphasis to relationships between willingness to implement adaptive measures to reduce heat stress risks and risk perception and adaptive capacities. Particularly, the analysis of future adaptation options and the ability and willingness of different households to implement these provides new insights on the differential capacities to adapt and the need for tailor-made transformation programs.</jats:p&gt

    Using OpenStreetMap Data and Machine Learning to Generate Socio-Economic Indicators

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    Socio-economic indicators are key to understanding societal challenges. They disassemble complex phenomena to gain insights and deepen understanding. Specific subsets of indicators have been developed to describe sustainability, human development, vulnerability, risk, resilience and climate change adaptation. Nonetheless, insufficient quality and availability of data often limit their explanatory power. Spatial and temporal resolution are often not at a scale appropriate for monitoring. Socio-economic indicators are mostly provided by governmental institutions and are therefore limited to administrative boundaries. Furthermore, different methodological computation approaches for the same indicator impair comparability between countries and regions. OpenStreetMap (OSM) provides an unparalleled standardized global database with a high spatiotemporal resolution. Surprisingly, the potential of OSM seems largely unexplored in this context. In this study, we used machine learning to predict four exemplary socio-economic indicators for municipalities based on OSM. By comparing the predictive power of neural networks to statistical regression models, we evaluated the unhinged resources of OSM for indicator development. OSM provides prospects for monitoring across administrative boundaries, interdisciplinary topics, and semi-quantitative factors like social cohesion. Further research is still required to, for example, determine the impact of regional and international differences in user contributions on the outputs. Nonetheless, this database can provide meaningful insight into otherwise unknown spatial differences in social, environmental or economic inequalities

    Current knowledge on relevant methodologies and datarequirements as well as lessons learned and gaps identified at different levels, in assessing the risk of loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change

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    Drawing on existing relevant work and documents, this technical paper aims to provide an overview of existing methodologies and tools for assessing the risk of loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change. In particular, the paper assesses 18 selected approaches, methods and tools in terms of their data and information requirements, strengths, weaknesses, lessons learned, gaps at different levels and relevance for social and environmental impacts, as well as discussing capacity needs for applying risk assessment methods in developing countries. It also considers risk assessment application to decision-making. Parties may wish to use the information contained in this paper as they consider approaches to address loss and damage associated with climate change impacts in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to enhance adaptive capacity, and to implement the work programme on loss and damage under the Convention, including to inform the discussions and develop further activities under the work programme

    Spatial Planning and Systems Thinking Tools for Climate Risk Reduction: A Case Study of the Andaman Coast, Thailand

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    The impact of climate change and related hazards such as floods, heatwaves, and sea level rise on human lives, cities, and their hinterlands depends not only on the nature of the hazard, but also on urban development, adaptation, and other socioeconomic processes that determine vulnerability and exposure. Spatial planning can reduce climate risk not just by influencing the exposure, but also by addressing social vulnerability. This requires that relevant information is available to planners and that plans are implemented and coordinated between sectors. This article is based on a research project in Thailand, particularly on the results of multi-sectoral workshops in the case study region of the Andaman Coast in southern Thailand, and draws upon climate risk, spatial planning, and systems thinking discourses. The article formulates recommendations for planning in the context of Thailand that are relevant for other rapidly growing and urbanizing regions. Among other conclusions, it suggests that systems thinking approaches and cross-sectoral strategies are ways to grasp the interdependencies between and within climate risk and spatial development challenges

    Adaptation after Extreme Flooding Events: Moving or Staying? The Case of the Ahr Valley in Germany

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    More than 130 lives were lost in the 2021 heavy precipitation and flood event in the Ahr Valley, Germany, where large parts of the valley were destroyed. Afterwards, public funding of about 15 billion Euros has been made available for reconstruction. However, with people and settlements being in highly exposed zones, the core question that is not sufficiently addressed is whether affected people want to rebuild in the same place, or rather opt to move out. The paper explores this question and assesses motivations and reasons for moving or staying in the Ahr Valley. For this purpose, a household survey was conducted focusing on 516 flood-affected households. The collected data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results revealed that the ownership of the house or flat significantly influenced the decision of whether to stay or to leave. In addition, an attachment to the place and the belief that such extreme events occur very rarely influenced the decision to stay and rebuild. Age, gender and household income barely influenced the decision to stay or to move to a new place. Interestingly, results demonstrated that many respondents view settlement retreat and the relocation of critical infrastructures as important options to reduce risk, however, many still rebuild in the same place. These insights enable local policy and practice to better address the needs of the population in terms of whether to stay or move after such an extreme disaster
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