Assessing water quality for cropping management practices: A new approach for dissolved inorganic nitrogen discharged to the Great Barrier Reef

Applications of nitrogen (N) fertiliser to agricultural lands impact many marine and aquatic ecosystems, and improved N fertiliser management is needed to reduce these water quality impacts. Government policies need information on water quality and risk associated with improved practices to evaluate the benefits of their adoption. Policies protecting Great Barrier Reef (GBR) ecosystems are an example of this situation. We developed a simple metric for assessing the risk of N discharge from sugarcane cropping, the biggest contributor of dissolved inorganic N to the GBR. The metric, termed NiLRI, is the ratio of N fertiliser applied to crops and the cane yield achieved (i.e. kg N (t cane)−1). We defined seven classes of water quality risk using NiLRI values derived from first principles reasoning. NiLRI values calculated from (1) results of historical field experiments and (2) survey data on the management of 170,177 ha (or 53%) of commercial sugarcane cropping were compared to the classes. The NiLRI values in both the experiments and commercial crops fell into all seven classes, showing that the classes were both biophysically sensible (c.f. the experiments) and relevant to farmers’ experience. We then used machine learning to explore the association between crop management practices recorded in the surveys and associated NiLRI values. Practices that most influenced NiLRI values had little apparent direct impact on N management. They included improving fallow management and reducing tillage and compaction, practices that have been promoted for production rather than N discharge benefits. The study not only provides a metric for the change in N water quality risk resulting from adoption of improved practices, it also gives the first clear empirical evidence of the agronomic practices that could be promoted to reduce water quality risk while maintaining or improving yields of sugarcane crops grown in catchments adjacent to the GBR. Our approach has relevance to assessing the environmental risk of N fertiliser management in other countries and cropping systems

Paddock scale modelling to assess effectiveness of agricultural management practice in improving water quality in the Great Barrier Reef Catchments

Agriculture in the catchment areas adjacent to the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Marine Park generates pollutants that are a concern for the health of the Reef. Under the Paddock to Reef Integrated Monitoring, Modelling and Reporting program (P2R) of the Reef Plan, the impacts of improved agricultural management practices on water quality entering the GBR are modelled to evaluate the effectiveness of Government water quality improvement policies. The Source Catchments modelling framework estimates loads of pollutants entering the GBR lagoon from rivers. However, Source Catchments does not have the capacity to represent the collection of management practices available to farmers that affect water quality in runoff and drainage at a paddock scale. Therefore, paddock scale agricultural systems models were used to demonstrate the effects of management practice adoption and to provide input to the catchment scale models. Paddock scale models were used because they represent a level of process detail compatible with the management practice investments and implementation on-ground. A fit-for-purpose modelling approach was used, where the paddock model most suited to a given land use and/or water quality pollutant was applied. Three one-dimensional agricultural systems models were employed; HowLeaky in grains, APSIM in sugarcane with HowLeaky post-processing for herbicides and phosphorous and GRASP in grazing lands. These models share similar soil water balance, ground cover and runoff sub-models. However, they vary in the level of detail, particularly in terms of representing crop growth and in the processes considered, such as pesticide degradation and export. In grains and sugarcane cropping, the pollutant time-series (e.g. load per day per unit area) in the Source Catchments models was replaced with an output time-series from HowLeaky or APSIM for each soil-climate spatial combination. Management practices were grouped into systems classed as A, B, C or D. The proportion of each of these management systems contributing to the modelled loads was adjusted to reflect data on the prevalence of adoption of improved management practices in the GBR catchment. In grazing lands, GRASP pasture utilisation and ground cover time-series outputs were interrogated to derive relationships between changes in grazing system management and changes in the USLE C-factors. The USLE is used to predict hillslope erosion in the Source Catchments model. Scaling indices derived from GRASP outputs were used to adjust the USLE C-factors applied in Source Catchments where management practices had changed. The P2R program has demonstrated the effectiveness of linking paddock scale models or emergent models derived from them with catchment scale models. This has enabled detailed management options to be simulated to investigate broad scale water quality impacts of the adoption of improved agricultural practices

Nitrogen fertiliser management of sugarcane crops for meeting global environmental challenges

N fertiliser management is increasingly important in sugarcane crop as imperatives to reduce environmental impacts of N escalate. In this paper we report testing of a new concept for N management in sugarcane, the N Replacement system. This system aligns N applications with actual cane production, rather than potential production, by relying on soil N reserves to buffer differences in crop N needs and N fertiliser supply in individual crops. In 11 experiments that were conducted over an average of three crops, yields in the N Replacement treatment were similar to those achieved with the farmers’ conventional N management that had average N applications 18 to 157 kg/ha/crop greater than in the N Replacement treatments. The crop N surplus, an estimate of N potentially lost to the environment, was ~40% lower in the N replacement treatments compared with conventional N management. N concentrations and N uptake in cane for most crops were lower than those previously reported. These low N concentrations may be a response to the lower N application, and explain why yields were maintained in the N Replacement system at the lower N rates. The results show that the ecologically-based N Replacement system may deliver superior environmental outcomes without significantly reducing production. The results also show that predicting yield of the coming crop, a common basis for N management, is not necessary in sugarcane N management, provided N applications and production are matched in the longer term

Agronomic benefits and risks associated with the irrigated peanut–maize production system under a changing climate in northern Australia

With the aim of increasing peanut production in Australia, the Australian peanut industry has recently considered growing peanuts in rotation with maize at Katherine in the Northern Territory—a location with a semi-arid tropical climate and surplus irrigation capacity. We used the well-validated APSIM model to examine potential agronomic benefits and long-term risks of this strategy under the current and warmer climates of the new region. Yield of the two crops, irrigation requirement, total soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were simulated. Sixteen climate stressors were used; these were generated by using global climate models ECHAM5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0 and MRIGCM232 with a median sensitivity under two Special Report of Emissions Scenarios over the 2030 and 2050 timeframes plus current climate (baseline) for Katherine. Effects were compared at three levels of irrigation and three levels of N fertiliser applied to maize grown in rotations of wet-season peanut and dry-season maize (WPDM), and wet-season maize and dry-season peanut (WMDP). The climate stressors projected average temperature increases of 1°C to 2.8°C in the dry (baseline 24.4°C) and wet (baseline 29.5°C) seasons for the 2030 and 2050 timeframes, respectively. Increased temperature caused a reduction in yield of both crops in both rotations. However, the overall yield advantage of WPDM increased from 41% to up to 53% compared with the industry-preferred sequence of WMDP under the worst climate projection. Increased temperature increased the irrigation requirement by up to 11% in WPDM, but caused a smaller reduction in total SOC accumulation and smaller increases in N losses and GHG emission compared with WMDP. We conclude that although increased temperature will reduce productivity and total SOC accumulation, and increase N losses and GHG emissions in Katherine or similar northern Australian environments, the WPDM sequence should be preferable over the industry-preferred sequence because of its overall yield and sustainability advantages in warmer climates. Any limitations of irrigation resulting from climate change could, however, limit these advantages

Agronomic benefits and risks associated with the irrigated peanut–maize production system under a changing climate in northern Australia

With the aim of increasing peanut production in Australia, the Australian peanut industry has recently considered growing peanuts in rotation with maize at Katherine in the Northern Territory—a location with a semi-arid tropical climate and surplus irrigation capacity. We used the well-validated APSIM model to examine potential agronomic benefits and long-term risks of this strategy under the current and warmer climates of the new region. Yield of the two crops, irrigation requirement, total soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were simulated. Sixteen climate stressors were used; these were generated by using global climate models ECHAM5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0 and MRIGCM232 with a median sensitivity under two Special Report of Emissions Scenarios over the 2030 and 2050 timeframes plus current climate (baseline) for Katherine. Effects were compared at three levels of irrigation and three levels of N fertiliser applied to maize grown in rotations of wet-season peanut and dry-season maize (WPDM), and wet-season maize and dry-season peanut (WMDP). The climate stressors projected average temperature increases of 1°C to 2.8°C in the dry (baseline 24.4°C) and wet (baseline 29.5°C) seasons for the 2030 and 2050 timeframes, respectively. Increased temperature caused a reduction in yield of both crops in both rotations. However, the overall yield advantage of WPDM increased from 41% to up to 53% compared with the industry-preferred sequence of WMDP under the worst climate projection. Increased temperature increased the irrigation requirement by up to 11% in WPDM, but caused a smaller reduction in total SOC accumulation and smaller increases in N losses and GHG emission compared with WMDP. We conclude that although increased temperature will reduce productivity and total SOC accumulation, and increase N losses and GHG emissions in Katherine or similar northern Australian environments, the WPDM sequence should be preferable over the industry-preferred sequence because of its overall yield and sustainability advantages in warmer climates. Any limitations of irrigation resulting from climate change could, however, limit these advantages

Climate change abatement and farm profitability analyses across agricultural environments

Management practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from farms or increase on-farm carbon storage can contribute to climate change mitigation. Farmers, however, are only likely to adopt new management practices if they contribute to farm profitability. We use the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate how different cropping practices contribute to greenhouse gas abatement at case study farms in different grain growing regions across Australia. The APSIM simulations were subsequently used to calculate farm gross margins and conduct whole-farm economic modelling to estimate the costs of abatement under different management practices. Integrating detailed biophysical and economic analyses enables us to demonstrate the difference in potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across agricultural environments. We show this for two case study farms in different grain growing regions, where we found both positive and negative relationships between greenhouse gas abatement and profitability for the management practices. This diversity in potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across agricultural environments must be recognised in order to understand the role agriculture can play in climate change mitigation, and understand the implications of any potential future changes to include the industry in carbon pricing policies

Simulating long-term nutrient dynamics to better assess soil fertility in subtropical cropping

Soil chemical fertility has steadily declined in tropical and subtropical agriculture. Assessing effect of phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), and carbon (C) on crop productivity is complex because climate often dictates crop nutrient response, causing suboptimal yield and fertiliser inefficiency. The Agricultural Productions Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model accounts for C x N x climate interactions, but modelling P is constrained by a dearth of suitable data. We simulated P, N, and C dynamics at a 35-year long-term field trial, where a range of N (0, 40, 80, 120 kg ha-1 ) and P (0, 10, 20 kg ha-1 ) fertiliser rates were consistently applied. We parameterised the model by assuming correspondence between conceptual soil P pools and Hedley fractionation pools, and with quantified P adsorption isotherms, measured organic N, C, and charcoal content to estimate organic matter decay coefficients, pool sizes, and C:N ratios. APSIM accounted for variation in mean N export (94 %), crop yield (88 %), and P export (62 %) across the 12 treatments, and reproduced interannual variation in N × P effects for crop yield and N export. APSIM also identified depletion or accumulation of soil P, N, and C in most treatments. P fractionation and isotherm measurements are labour intensive but worthwhile and future efforts should work to consolidate a database for different soil types. Using this P modelling approach will enable better assessment of climate variability on soil fertility and crop productivity, and guide management practices to deliver better fertiliser efficiency and maintain soil organic C

Simulating long-term phosphorus, nitrogen, and carbon dynamics to advance nutrient assessment in dryland cropping

Soil chemical fertility has steadily declined in tropical and subtropical agriculture with depleted stocks of phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), and carbon (C). Assessing the dynamics of these elements and their interactions on crop productivity in dryland cropping are complex because climate often dictates crop nutrient response. This results in under- or over- fertilising crops, suboptimal crop yield, and fertiliser inefficiency. The Agricultural Productions Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model accounts for C x N x climate interactions, but simulation of P dynamics is constrained by a dearth of suitable data. To address this problem, we used a novel approach to simulate P, N, and C dynamics at a 35-year long-term field trial, where a broad range of N (0, 40, 80, 120 kg ha−1) and P (0, 10, 20 kg ha−1) fertiliser rates were consistently applied. We parameterised the soil P model with quantified adsorption isotherms and by assuming correspondence between conceptual soil P pools and Hedley fractionation pools. Soil N and C dynamics were parameterised with measured organic N, C, and charcoal content to estimate organic matter decay coefficients, pool sizes, and C:N ratios. APSIM accounted for variation in mean N export (94%), crop yield (88%), and P export (62%) across the 12 treatments, and reproduced interannual variation in N × P effects for crop yield and N export, where crop response was strongly mediated by N supply and water availability. APSIM also identified the long-term depletion or accumulation of soil P, N, and C in most treatments. P fractionation and isotherm measurements are labour intensive but worthwhile, and future efforts should work to consolidate a database for different soil types. Better informed P modelling will provide insights into the effects of climate variability on soil fertility and crop productivity, and guide management practices to deliver better fertiliser efficiency and maintain soil organic C