The Formation of Preferences in Two-level Games: An Analysis of India’s Domestic and Foreign Energy Policy

This paper examines the formation of India’s energy-policy strategy as an act of doubleedged diplomacy. After developing an analytical framework based on the two-level game approach to international relations (IR), it focuses on the domestic context of policy preference formation. India’s energy strategy is shaped by a shortage of energy and the scarcity of indigenous reserves; these problems have together resulted in a growing import dependence in order to sustain economic growth rates, outdated cross-subsidies, overregulation, and nontransparent bureaucratic structures which are adverse to private investment. The Indian government still dominates the energy sector, but large electoral constituencies within the country exert a considerable indirect influence. The paper analyzes how all these domestic necessities combine with India’s general foreign policy goals and traditions to form an overall energy strategy. We finally discuss how this strategy plays out in a competitive international environment where global resources are shrinking (with most claims already distributed) and environmental concerns are on the rise.preferences in two-level games, Indian foreign policy, energy security

Staatlichkeit in Entwicklungsländern: Versachlichung tut not

Copper remains at elevated levels in the aquatic environment of Stockholm due to diffuse urban sources. Management of these diffuse sources requires their quantification but they cannot be measured directly by field observations. The working hypothesis of this thesis was that Copper levels in the sediments of urban lakes would reflect diffuse emissions within their catchment areas. In order to test this hypothesis, a source – transport – storage conceptual model was developed for tracing the urban diffuse sources of Copper to the sediment in the urbanised catchment. A substance flow analysis (SFA) approach was taken in the source module and a fate, mass-balance model was applied in the lake module. Five separate urban lakes (Judarn, Laduviken, Långsjön, Råcksta Träsk and Trekanten) within the Stockholm area and a main water flow pathway from Lake Mälaren to the inner archipelago of the Baltic Sea, through Stockholm, were selected as case studies.  In comparison to actual source strength data in the literature for the five case study lakes, the SFA approach gave similar results to previous models, but with reduced uncertainty. The SFA approach was also able to indicate the actual sources of urban copper, which was not accomplished by the other approaches and which is a great advantage in managing the sources. For the five lakes in Stockholm, traffic and copper roofs were found to be major contributors of Copper. For the three more polluted lakes, good agreement was obtained between simulated sediment copper contents and independent field observations, thereby supporting the applicability of the model in such cases. Furthermore, simulation results showed sediment copper content to be linearly dependent on the urban load. While this suggests that the urban copper sediment level reflects the urban load, considerable integration of this load over time (decade(s)) was suggested by the simulation results, so time must be allowed in order to detect a change in the urban load by field monitoring of the sediments.  Published data on the main water flow pathway from Lake Mälaren to the archipelago showed a peak in sediment copper content close to the city centre, confirming a considerable urban influence. An approach to quantitatively follow Cu from its urban source through such a complex, aquatic system was developed and applied to Stockholm. The compliance of future quantitative model results with monitoring data may help test the choices made in this conceptual model and the applicability of the model. Data availability proved to be a major obstacle to achieving a quantitative model, particularly as several municipalities with different levels of data availability surround the main water flow pathway studied.  Finally, the applicability of the quantitative, coupled source – transport – storage was demonstrated in a simplified scenario analysis. The ability of the model to estimate the copper load to air and soil and to the urban aquatic environment was also demonstrated.QC 2011032

Collective Self-Blockade? Why the UN Climate Conference in Paris Could Fail

On 19 and 20 April 2015, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate took place in Washington, DC. Industrialised countries and emerging economies are meeting in multiple forums this year to explore their positions in advance of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in December. The preparations for an effective global climate change agreement at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in December 2015 are proving to be difficult. While the BRICS states, the United States, and the EU are verbally proclaiming their commitment, they often impede themselves as a group due to national interests. Against this backdrop, it is necessary to consider alternatives to a global but weak climate change agreement. Of the key countries and groups, only the EU, the United States, and Russia have submitted their intended nationally determined contributions to climate protection to the United Nations. The political approach taken by the emerging economies is being influenced by international expectations and national constellations. Due to their internal preferences, neither the United States nor China are interested in a strong, obligatory climate agreement at the global level. This makes a global consensus unlikely. Bilateral, public–private, and market-based solutions are easier to implement politically than a new global agreement. The renewed failure to reach a global climate agreement could lead to other options for action. Repeated and complicated negotiations at the global level will certainly not bring about the changes necessary to reach the 2°C goal on time. Three scenarios for the future are possible: The chaotic and multi-stakeholder international politics of climate change will continue. Climate clubs made up of key emitters will become trailblazers and will impose sanctions on non-members. A citizens’ climate politics in the sense of the "Copenhagen Theory of Change" will supplement or replace the great transformation from above. The EU and Germany could use meetings such as the G7 or the Major Economies Forum to discuss the potential of climate clubs and could set the latter in motion should the UN Climate Conference in Paris fail

Gender Justice as an International Objective: India in the G20

The G20 states have made a commitment to drastically lower the gender differential in their labour markets. All G20 states, including India, will have great difficulty doing so, as the disparity is a consequence not of formal deficiencies, but of informal norms and value attitudes. It will take both time and holistic approaches on the domestic and international levels to change this. Gender justice will feature more prominently at this year's G20 summit under the German presidency. At past summits, the issue was rather neglected. The 2014 Brisbane Declaration represented a watershed moment, as the G20 states committed to reduce the gender gap in the labour market participation rate by 25 per cent by the year 2025. Women's employment rates in some countries are, however, stagnating – in India they have even dropped. Neither economic growth nor statutory requirements or strides in women's education have improved the situation. Given all this, the question arises of how the stated objective can be reached. The Modi government has developed a new strategy to increase women's participation in the labour market that includes attracting textile and other manufacturing industries and promoting self-employment and professional qualifications. It remains to be seen whether the measures will succeed; whether low-paying jobs in the textile industry will truly lead to good jobs; and whether this will increase women's levels of societal, political, and economic participation. A change in discriminatory value attitudes is particularly crucial. The G20 states are in at least verbal agreement that gender justice is fundamental to sustainable and socially just economic growth. The increase in women's labour market participation should be seen as just one step in the right direction. To help create vital jobs in India, Germany should advocate for holistic political measures in the context of its G20 presidency, and the EU and the G20 should support India in its attempts to open markets and attract direct investment

Die Interaktion interner und externer Faktoren beim Wandel der indischen Außenpolitik

"Der Einfluss gesellschaftlicher Gruppen auf die indische Außenpolitik, auch des Parlaments oder selbst des militärischen Apparats war traditionell recht gering; die außenpolitische Elite genoss daher erhebliche Entscheidungsautonomie, war sich im übrigen in den wesentlichen Fragen auch einig. Ein Kurswechsel, der eigentlich nach dem Ende der Blockkonfrontation zu erwarten gewesen wäre, blieb zunächst aus. Er wurde wesentlich gefördert durch die wirtschaftlichen Reformen seit Mitte der 1980er Jahre, verstärkt seit 1991 - Reformen, die ihrerseits auch durch die sicherheitspolitischen Implikationen des relativen Zurückbleibens Indiens gegenüber den Konkurrenten veranlasst waren. Diese Reformen und die damit einhergehende Notwendigkeit, die Attraktivität des Landes für internationales Kapital zu erhöhen und neue Absatzmärkte für indische Waren zu finden - in einer Welt intensiverer Standortkonkurrenz -, förderten schließlich eine Reorientierung der indischen Außenpolitik, nämlich eine Annäherung an den Westen und die südostasiatischen Staaten. Sie stärkten auch jene gesellschaftlichen Gruppen, die von diesem Wandel profitierten und sich daher für seine Fortsetzung stark machten. Das Resultat ist ein neues außenpolitisches Paradigma: Sicherheit wird nun breiter definiert, beinhaltet nicht nur wirtschaftlichen Fortschritt, sondern auch Schutz vor den Rückwirkungen ungleicher Entwicklung innerhalb des Landes und seiner Nachbarschaft. Diesbezügliche Befürchtungen und der Druck der wirtschaftlichen Globalisierung haben auch eine konziliantere Haltung gegenüber den anderen südasiatischen Staaten gefördert, die sich in einseitigen Konzessionen Indiens niederschlägt. Verbunden mit den wirtschaftlichen Motiven der Neuausrichtung ist eine neue Werthaltung der indischen Außenpolitik im Sinne der Allianz mit anderen demokratischen Staaten, vornehmlich den USA. Das Wachstum jener gesellschaftlichen Gruppen, die von einem stärkeren Austausch mit dem Rest der Welt begünstigt werden und die politische Stärkung bislang unterprivilegierter Gruppen haben allerdings das Management der Außenpolitik schwieriger gemacht." (Autorenreferat

Política exterior e paz: um jogo em dois níveis?

Durante los dos periodos presidenciales de Juan Manuel Santos, la política exterior colombiana dirigió una buena parte de sus esfuerzos a solidificar, a través del involucramiento de actores internacionales, las negociaciones que se llevaban a cabo con la otrora guerrilla de las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC-EP). En el presente texto se analiza ese proceso a través de la teoría de los dos niveles de juego (two-level game theory). Además, se considera que la organización de la política exterior colombiana alrededor de la solidificación de los Diálogos de La Habana respondió a la necesidad de consolidar este proceso, de dotarlo de legitimidad entre la población y de garantizar la implementación de lo acordado. Así, a través de acciones concretas y del proceso de internacionalización en sí mismo se construyó una suerte de 'blindaje internacional' que establece restricciones a la posibilidad de dar marcha atrás a lo establecido en el Acuerdo.During the two presidential terms of Juan Manuel Santos, Colombian foreign policy focused on solidifying, through the involvement of international actors, the negotiations that were taking place with the former guerrilla of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (farc-ep, after the initials in Spanish). In the present text, the author analyzes the process of internationalization of the peace process and the subsequent implementation of what was agreed upon through the two-level game theory. Thus, it is considered that the organization of Colombian foreign policy around the solidification of the Dialogues of Havana responded to the need to consolidate them, give them legitimacy among the population and guarantee the implementation of what was agreed upon. In addition, through concrete actions and the process of internationalization itself, a kind of 'international armor' was built, which establishes restrictions from international politics on the possibility of reversing the provisions of the Agreement

Kinderarmut hat Langzeitwirkung : Zu Umfang und Ursachen in Entwicklungsländern

Der Umfang und die Ursachen von Kinderarmut sind in der bisherigen entwicklungsstrategischen Literatur allenfalls als Seitenaspekt der allgemeinen Armutsanalyse behandelt worden. Erst in den letzten Jahren wurden die gegenüber der Armut von Erwachsenen unterschiedlichen Ursachen von Kinderarmut stärker beachtet. Zu dieser stärkeren Wahrnehmung haben auch der Einsatz von Kindersoldaten in Bürgerkriegen, die anhaltende Diskussion über Kinderarbeit in Entwicklungsländern und die zunehmende Zahl von AIDS-Waisen beigetragen