Break-even inflation rate and the risk premium: an alternative approach to the VAR models in forecasting the CPI

This paper examines, for the Brazilian case, if break-even inflation rates (BEIR) extracted from fixed income securities are an unbiased estimator of consumer inflation, measured by the CPI. Our estimates suggest that BEIRs are informative about future inflation, especially for the maturity of three months. The main innovation of our work, however, is the method used for estimation, allowing us to conclude that the inflation risk premium, for some maturities considered, varies over time and is not irrelevant from the economic standpoint. We also compared the inflation forecasts obtained from BEIRs with the ones extracted from VAR models used by Central Bank and estimates from the Focus Survey Report's Top5s. The forecasts performed with BEIRs showed greater accuracy than those extracted from VAR models. These projections, however, underperformed those from the Top5s.break-even inflation rate, inflation expectations, inflation

"Forty-one plus twenty-four is?": investigating on arithmetic processing in late bilinguals at low and high proficiency

Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro de Comunicação e Expressão, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Inglês: Estudos Linguísticos e Literários, Florianópolis, 2023.Abstract: The field of numerical cognition has tried to understand the underlying mechanisms of how humans understand and process numerical information. Numerical information varies from seemingly simple actions such as choosing the cookie with the most chocolate chips, in which we try to recognize numerosity, to more complex actions such as multiplying or dividing, in which we need to manipulate precise numbers. Having in mind that most people need to deal with numerical information on a daily basis and that this mathematical processing is closely linked to the language that it has been taught, the current study tries to better understand how bilingual people deal with manipulating precise numerical information. The aim of this study, more specifically, is to investigate if more proficient speakers of an L2 are better at dealing with precise numerical information in their L2 and/or their L1 than less proficient speakers. In order to explore that, an online experiment was run with 36 Brazilian Portuguese-English (BP- EN) late bilingual participants of different proficiency levels in which they solved arithmetic problems of different complexities (one or two-digit problems), types (addition, subtraction, multiplication, or division), and language (English or Portuguese). Results show that proficiency plays a small role in arithmetic processing in the L2. In too-simple problems, proficiency did not yield a strong interaction with reaction times, whereas, in too-complex problems, a language overload surpassed L2 proficiency as an aid to solving the arithmetic operation. Hence, results demonstrate that proficiency has an effect on arithmetic processing and that this effect interacts with the complexity of the problems presented.A área da cognição numérica tem tentado entender os mecanismos subjacentes de como os seres humanos entendem e processam informações numéricas. Informações numéricas variam entre ações aparentemente simples como escolher o biscoito com mais gotas de chocolate, em que tentamos reconhecer numerosidade, ou ações mais complexas como multiplicar ou dividir, em que precisamos manipular números exatos. Tendo em mente que a maior parte das pessoas precisam lidar com informações numéricas diariamente, e que esse processamento matemático possui estreita ligação com a linguagem em que foi ensinado, o presente estudo tenta entender melhor como indivíduos bilíngues lidam com a manipulação de informações numéricas precisas. O propósito deste estudo, mais especificamente, é investigar se falantes de L2 mais proficientes lidam melhor com informações numéricas precisas em sua L2 e/ou sua L1, quando comparados à falantes menos proficientes de L2. A fim de explorar esta hipótese, foi realizado um experimento online com 36 falantes bilíngues tardios de Português Brasileiro-Inglês (PB- IN) com diferentes níveis de proficiência em que eles resolveram problemas aritméticos de diferentes complexidade (problemas de um ou dois dígitos), tipos (adição, subtração, multiplicação ou divisão) e língua (Português ou Inglês). Os resultados demonstram que a proficiência desempenha um papel limitado no processamento aritmético na L2. Em problemas demasiadamente simples, a proficiência não gerou uma interação significativa com os tempos de reação, ao mesmo tempo que em problemas demasiadamente complexos, uma sobrecarga linguística excedeu a proficiência na L2 em auxiliar a resolver o problema aritmético. Portanto, os resultados demonstram que a proficiência possui um efeito no processamento aritmético, e que esse efeito interage com a complexidade dos problemas apresentados

Knowledge production and firm growth in Brazil

The aim of this study is to gauge the impact of the production of knowledge on the accumulation of fixed capital in Brazil. The hypothesis is that investment in R&D causes investment in fixed capital in Brazilian industrial firms. The empirical estimates rest on an IPEA database for information on firms and the workers linked to these firms during the period 1996-2003 and on the National Innovation Survey (PINTEC) for information on technological development. In the article, various estimates are made using three empirical procedures. First, the firms that grew most and invested most are described. Second, econometric models relating R&D expenditures, technological innovation and the accumulation of fixed capital are estimated. A model having five equations and a structure similar to that of CDM models is estimated. The system employs instrumental variables to correct for endogeneity and solves the selection problem by including a firm-survival equation. Third, the causal relations between R&D and investment in fixed capital are sought through contrafactual analysis and a difference model. The results support the initial hypothesis, indicating that investments in R&D lead to an average 17% increase in investments in fixed capital among Brazilian firms.firm growth, knowledge production, R&D, innovation, simultaneous equation models