The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on International Migration: Does Education Matter?

Using migration data in 1990 and 2000, we find that inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in non-OECD countries affects the out-migration of individuals with tertiary and secondary education to OECD countries originating the investments, but has no significant effect on the out-migration of individuals with primary education. Distinguishing between linkage and home effects, our results show a dominant home effect of FDI for individuals with tertiary education, but a stronger linkage effect for those with secondary education. The existing stock of former migrants in foreign countries influences the out-migration of individuals with primary education

International Comovement of Economic Fluctuations: A Spatial Analysis

We consider the comovement of economic volatility across multiple countries. Using spatial models with data from 187 countries over the period of 1960–2007, we find a strong spatial comovement of economic volatility. More interestingly, the effect of geographical proximity on economic volatility comovement is strongest during the period of international shocks (1973–86), but almost disappears over the globalization era (1987–2007). By way of contrast, the influence of trade relations in determining the comovement of economic volatility is significant over 1987–2007

Testing Monetary Policy Intentions in Open Economies

Temple (2002) argues that the inflation level used in Romer (1993) lacks power in revealing the policy intentions of monetary authorities. Temple also points out that Romer\u27s use of the openness--inflation correlation cannot be explained by time consistency theory. In this article, we demonstrate that more open economies experience less inflation volatility and persistence. We attribute our findings to the hypothesis that monetary authorities in more open economies adopt more aggressive monetary policies. This pattern emerges strongly after 1990. Our results indicate that the near-universal regime shift in 1990 is not just a simple process of increased monetary policy aggressiveness, but an increased response to economic openness

Valorização do patrimônio científico e tecnológico brasileiro: descobrindo conjuntos de objetos de C&T pelo Brasil

Most of Brazil's science and technology (S&T) heritage has yet to be tracked down. The knowledge amassed on the topic is still limited, and there is a real risk that Brazilian science and technology objects may already have been modernized or discarded. A research project was developed in the last four years including several initiatives to preserve this kind of heritage, as such: a national survey to build up a picture of the current state of this heritage; studies concerning heritage protection legislation of some countries, including Brazil; and two case studies of collections of S&T objects (Observatório do Valongo and Colégio Pedro II). This paper presents an overview of the results obtained in the several initiatives of preservation undertaken. The survey is divided into different areas of knowledge and different time frames. As such, we are interested in sets of objects from the exact sciences, the different engineering specialties, as well as geography, geology and oceanography, which were manufactured in or before the 1960s. A registration form was prepared which was adapted from a form used in surveys of collections of this kind in Portugal. Sets of objects have been identified at museums, universities and research institutes. From the results, it could be observed that: the best preserved collections are at the few museums devoted to the area, but the universities hold most of the artifacts and the overwhelming majority of the objects were made in the twentieth century.A maior parte dos bens que constituem o patrimônio cultural da Ciência e Tecnologia (C&T) está para ser descoberta. O conhecimento acumulado sobre o tema ainda é limitado e há um risco real de que os objetos já tenham sido modernizados ou descartados. Nos últimos quatro anos, desenvolveu-se um projeto de pesquisa, envolvendo várias iniciativas para preservar este tipo de patrimônio: um levantamento nacional para construir um panorama do estado atual desse patrimônio; estudos sobre a legislação de proteção ao patrimônio de alguns países, inclusive o Brasil; e dois estudos de caso de coleções de objetos de C&T (Observatório do Valongo e Colégio Pedro II, ambos no Rio de Janeiro). Este artigo apresenta uma visão geral dos resultados obtidos e, em especial, dos levantamentos de conjuntos de objetos de C&T. Utilizou-se um recorte em relação a áreas do conhecimento e período histórico, compreendendo objetos pertencentes à s ciências exatas, à s diferentes especialidades de engenharia, bem como geografia, geologia e oceanografia, e fabricados até 1960. A partir da adaptação de um formulário usado em pesquisas similares em Portugal, elaborou-se uma ficha de registro, que permitiu identificar conjuntos de objetos em museus, universidades e institutos de pesquisa. Pôde-se, com isso, observar que as coleções mais bem preservadas estão nos poucos museus dedicados à área, enquanto as universidades detêm a maior parte dos artefatos, e que a esmagadora maioria dos objetos foi produzida no século XX

Political Campaign Advertising Dynamics

We investigate the effectiveness of political campaign advertisements. From findings in communications, political science, and psychology, we know that the relation between voters and campaign strategists is dynamic and evolves until voters\u27 views on a candidate crystallize. After that point, political campaign advertisements are ineffective. To capture this dynamic we develop an adaptive learning model that relates voters\u27 impression formation to expectations about candidate behavior, one form of which (rational expectations), renders political advertising ineffective. We treat rational expectations as a limiting result that supports the concept of crystallization. Our model assumes that voters misspecify their forecasts about a particular candidate\u27s attributes and campaign strategy. Over time voters can reach a rational expectations equilibrium about a candidate\u27s qualities and discount political advertising. We illustrate the learning dynamics using simulations. As one application of this approach we focus on the influence campaign message (strategy) volatility has on crystallization (i.e., reaching the rational expectations equilibrium). Our simulation results show that campaign message volatility has an important effect on crystallization. One implication is that crystallization is a fragile, special case result that can be altered by informational shocks during the campaign

WORDS AND DEEDS: SYMBOLIC POLITICS AND DECISION MAKING AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE

The Fed has often been accused of using ambiguity, concealment, and deception when it is subject to intense scrutiny and pressure. We investigate this issue by examining the relationship between the Fed's policy statements and its subsequent use of a key policy instrument, the federal funds rate. Our analysis shows that the Fed usually does what it says it will do during times of economic distress (recessions), but that its actions are more inclined to diverge from its stated intent when a sluggish economy coincides with presidential elections. Copyright 1994 Blackwell Publishers Ltd..

Replication data for: Testing for Cointegrating Relationships with Near-Integrated Data

Testing theories about political change requires analysts to make assumptions about the memory of their time series. Applied analyses are often based on inferences that time series are integrated and cointegrated. Typically analyses rest on Dickey–Fuller pretests for unit roots and a test for cointegration based on the Engle–Granger two-step method. We argue that this approach is not a good one and use Monte Carlo analysis to show that these tests can lead analysts to conclude falsely that the data are cointegrated (or nearly cointegrated) when the data are near-integrated and not cointegrating. Further, analysts are likely to conclude falsely that the relationship is not cointegrated when it is. We show how inferences are highly sensitive to sample size and the signal-to-noise ratio in the data. We suggest three things. First, analysts should use the single equation error correction test for cointegrating relationships; second, caution is in order in all cases where near-integration is a reasonable alternative to unit roots; and third, analysts should drop the language of cointegration in many cases and adopt single-equation error correction models when the theory of error correction is relevant

What explains recent changes in international monetary policy attitudes toward inflation? Evidence from developed countries

This paper identifies source(s) contributing to the recent international shift in monetary policy attitudes toward inflation. Data from 18 developed countries suggests that this shift is connected to the universal increase in policy responses to economic openness in the 1990s.