Telling Cause from Effect using MDL-based Local and Global Regression

We consider the fundamental problem of inferring the causal direction between two univariate numeric random variables $X$ and $Y$ from observational data. The two-variable case is especially difficult to solve since it is not possible to use standard conditional independence tests between the variables. To tackle this problem, we follow an information theoretic approach based on Kolmogorov complexity and use the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle to provide a practical solution. In particular, we propose a compression scheme to encode local and global functional relations using MDL-based regression. We infer $X$ causes $Y$ in case it is shorter to describe $Y$ as a function of $X$ than the inverse direction. In addition, we introduce Slope, an efficient linear-time algorithm that through thorough empirical evaluation on both synthetic and real world data we show outperforms the state of the art by a wide margin.Comment: 10 pages, To appear in ICDM1

Causal Inference by Stochastic Complexity

The algorithmic Markov condition states that the most likely causal direction between two random variables X and Y can be identified as that direction with the lowest Kolmogorov complexity. Due to the halting problem, however, this notion is not computable. We hence propose to do causal inference by stochastic complexity. That is, we propose to approximate Kolmogorov complexity via the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, using a score that is mini-max optimal with regard to the model class under consideration. This means that even in an adversarial setting, such as when the true distribution is not in this class, we still obtain the optimal encoding for the data relative to the class. We instantiate this framework, which we call CISC, for pairs of univariate discrete variables, using the class of multinomial distributions. Experiments show that CISC is highly accurate on synthetic, benchmark, as well as real-world data, outperforming the state of the art by a margin, and scales extremely well with regard to sample and domain sizes

Discovering Reliable Dependencies from Data: Hardness and Improved Algorithms

The reliable fraction of information is an attractive score for quantifying (functional) dependencies in high-dimensional data. In this paper, we systematically explore the algorithmic implications of using this measure for optimization. We show that the problem is NP-hard, which justifies the usage of worst-case exponential-time as well as heuristic search methods. We then substantially improve the practical performance for both optimization styles by deriving a novel admissible bounding function that has an unbounded potential for additional pruning over the previously proposed one. Finally, we empirically investigate the approximation ratio of the greedy algorithm and show that it produces highly competitive results in a fraction of time needed for complete branch-and-bound style search.Comment: Accepted to Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM'18

VoG: Summarizing and Understanding Large Graphs

How can we succinctly describe a million-node graph with a few simple sentences? How can we measure the "importance" of a set of discovered subgraphs in a large graph? These are exactly the problems we focus on. Our main ideas are to construct a "vocabulary" of subgraph-types that often occur in real graphs (e.g., stars, cliques, chains), and from a set of subgraphs, find the most succinct description of a graph in terms of this vocabulary. We measure success in a well-founded way by means of the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle: a subgraph is included in the summary if it decreases the total description length of the graph. Our contributions are three-fold: (a) formulation: we provide a principled encoding scheme to choose vocabulary subgraphs; (b) algorithm: we develop \method, an efficient method to minimize the description cost, and (c) applicability: we report experimental results on multi-million-edge real graphs, including Flickr and the Notre Dame web graph.Comment: SIAM International Conference on Data Mining (SDM) 201

Explainable Data Decompositions

Our goal is to discover the components of a dataset, characterize why we deem these components, explain how these components are different from each other, as well as identify what properties they share among each other. As is usual, we consider regions in the data to be components if they show significantly different distributions. What is not usual, however, is that we parameterize these distributions with patterns that are informative for one or more components. We do so because these patterns allow us to characterize what is going on in our data as well as explain our decomposition. We define the problem in terms of a regularized maximum likelihood, in which we use the Maximum Entropy principle to model each data component with a set of patterns. As the search space is large and unstructured, we propose the deterministic Disc algorithm to efficiently discover high-quality decompositions via an alternating optimization approach. Empirical evaluation on synthetic and real-world data shows that efficiently discovers meaningful components and accurately characterises these in easily understandable terms