Transportation Energy Pathways LDRD.

This report presents a system dynamics based model of the supply-demand interactions between the USlight-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, its fuels, and the corresponding primary energy sources through the year2050. An important capability of our model is the ability to conduct parametric analyses. Others have reliedupon scenario-based analysis, where one discrete set of values is assigned to the input variables and used togenerate one possible realization of the future. While these scenarios can be illustrative of dominant trendsand tradeoffs under certain circumstances, changes in input values or assumptions can have a significantimpact on results, especially when output metrics are associated with projections far into the future. Thistype of uncertainty can be addressed by using a parametric study to examine a range of values for the inputvariables, offering a richer source of data to an analyst.The parametric analysis featured here focuses on a trade space exploration, with emphasis on factors thatinfluence the adoption rates of electric vehicles (EVs), the reduction of GHG emissions, and the reduction ofpetroleum consumption within the US LDV fleet. The underlying model emphasizes competition between13 different types of powertrains, including conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), conventional hybrids(HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles(BEVs).We find that many factors contribute to the adoption rates of EVs. These include the pace of technologicaldevelopment for the electric powertrain, battery performance, as well as the efficiency improvements inconventional vehicles. Policy initiatives can also have a dramatic impact on the degree of EV adoption. Theconsumer effective payback period, in particular, can significantly increase the market penetration rates ifextended towards the vehicle lifetime.Widespread EV adoption can have noticeable impact on petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas(GHG) emission by the LDV fleet. However, EVs alone cannot drive compliance with the most aggressiveGHG emission reduction targets, even as the current electricity source mix shifts away from coal and towardsnatural gas. Since ICEs will comprise the majority of the LDV fleet for up to forty years, conventional vehicleefficiency improvements have the greatest potential for reductions in LDV GHG emissions over this time.These findings seem robust even if global oil prices rise to two to three times current projections. Thus,investment in improving the internal combustion engine might be the cheapest, lowest risk avenue towardsmeeting ambitious GHG emission and petroleum consumption reduction targets out to 2050.3 AcknowledgmentThe authors would like to thank Dr. Andrew Lutz, Dr. Benjamin Wu, Prof. Joan Ogden and Dr. ChristopherYang for their suggestions over the course of this project. This work was funded by the Laboratory DirectedResearch and Development program at Sandia National Laboratories.

Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020

[EN] Following its emergence in late 2019, the spread of SARS-CoV-21,2 has been tracked by phylogenetic analysis of viral genome sequences in unprecedented detail3,4,5. Although the virus spread globally in early 2020 before borders closed, intercontinental travel has since been greatly reduced. However, travel within Europe resumed in the summer of 2020. Here we report on a SARS-CoV-2 variant, 20E (EU1), that was identified in Spain in early summer 2020 and subsequently spread across Europe. We find no evidence that this variant has increased transmissibility, but instead demonstrate how rising incidence in Spain, resumption of travel, and lack of effective screening and containment may explain the variant’s success. Despite travel restrictions, we estimate that 20E (EU1) was introduced hundreds of times to European countries by summertime travellers, which is likely to have undermined local efforts to minimize infection with SARS-CoV-2. Our results illustrate how a variant can rapidly become dominant even in the absence of a substantial transmission advantage in favourable epidemiological settings. Genomic surveillance is critical for understanding how travel can affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and thus for informing future containment strategies as travel resumes.S

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection

Behavioral ecology and population genetics of two populations of blue crab, Callinectes sapidus (Rathbun), in New Jersey:

Blue crabs are important estuarine organisms, both ecologically and economically. Due to historical differences of human impact between contaminated Hackensack Meadowlands (HM) and cleaner Tuckerton (TK), adult prey capture, juvenile predator avoidance, adult/juvenile aggression, metal accumulation/depuration and population genetics were investigated.HM adults had reduced prey capture on active prey compared to TK crabs, suggesting HM crabs may have reduced coordination. Stomach analysis revealed HM crabs’ stomachs contained ~60% algae/plant and detritus/sediment, and lower crab and fish weights than TK crabs. TK crabs were caged in HM or fed HM food for 8 weeks; their prey capture declined significantly indicating environmental factors were responsible for the behavioral differences. Crabs were then analyzed for metals in muscle and hepatopancreas. HM crabs were fed clean food or transplanted to TK; TK crabs were fed contaminated food or transplanted to HM. Significant tissue differences were found for Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn. HM crabs did not show a significant decrease in Hg after switching environment or diet, but showed a significant decrease in Cu, Pb and Zn in hepatopancreas after switching. TK crabs showed a significant increase of Hg in muscle and Cr and Zn in hepatopancreas after switching environment or food. In the lab, HM juveniles attacked threatening stimuli significantly more and TK juveniles fled or gave a mixed response significantly more. HM juveniles were significantly better at avoiding a crab predator when substrate was present. Follow-up experiments were conducted without substrate to determine if aggression was important. Aggressive juveniles were no more successful than non-aggressive ones at avoiding a predator. Adults were placed in a large tank with a crab pot; significantly fewer HM adults entered the pot. The first HM crab to enter generally prevented others from entering or attacked those that did, suggesting aggression may be causing low pot counts. Microsatellites were analyzed using four markers. Genotypic differences were not found among the three years which indicates these populations are not genetically distinct. Yearly differences were not found. These results indicate genetics can be ruled out. The ‘switch’ experiments results indicate the environment is causing the behavioral differences.Ph.D.Includes bibliographical references (p. 108-121)by Jessica M. Reichmut

Impact of COVID-19 on Diagnostic Cardiac Procedural Volume in Oceania: The IAEA Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocol Survey on COVID-19 (INCAPS COVID)

Objectives: The INCAPS COVID Oceania study aimed to assess the impact caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiac procedure volume provided in the Oceania region. Methods: A retrospective survey was performed comparing procedure volumes within March 2019 (pre-COVID-19) with April 2020 (during first wave of COVID-19 pandemic). Sixty-three (63) health care facilities within Oceania that perform cardiac diagnostic procedures were surveyed, including a mixture of metropolitan and regional, hospital and outpatient, public and private sites, and 846 facilities outside of Oceania. The percentage change in procedure volume was measured between March 2019 and April 2020, compared by test type and by facility. Results: In Oceania, the total cardiac diagnostic procedure volume was reduced by 52.2% from March 2019 to April 2020, compared to a reduction of 75.9% seen in the rest of the world (p&lt;0.001). Within Oceania sites, this reduction varied significantly between procedure types, but not between types of health care facility. All procedure types (other than stress cardiac magnetic resonance [CMR] and positron emission tomography [PET]) saw significant reductions in volume over this time period (p&lt;0.001). In Oceania, transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) decreased by 51.6%, transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) by 74.0%, and stress tests by 65% overall, which was more pronounced for stress electrocardiograph (ECG) (81.8%) and stress echocardiography (76.7%) compared to stress single-photon emission computerised tomography (SPECT) (44.3%). Invasive coronary angiography decreased by 36.7% in Oceania. Conclusion: A significant reduction in cardiac diagnostic procedure volume was seen across all facility types in Oceania and was likely a function of recommendations from cardiac societies and directives from government to minimise spread of COVID-19 amongst patients and staff. Longer term evaluation is important to assess for negative patient outcomes which may relate to deferral of usual models of care within cardiology

International Impact of COVID-19 on the Diagnosis of Heart Disease

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has adversely affected diagnosis and treatment of noncommunicable diseases. Its effects on delivery of diagnostic care for cardiovascular disease, which remains the leading cause of death worldwide, have not been quantified. Objectives: The study sought to assess COVID-19's impact on global cardiovascular diagnostic procedural volumes and safety practices. Methods: The International Atomic Energy Agency conducted a worldwide survey assessing alterations in cardiovascular procedure volumes and safety practices resulting from COVID-19. Noninvasive and invasive cardiac testing volumes were obtained from participating sites for March and April 2020 and compared with those from March 2019. Availability of personal protective equipment and pandemic-related testing practice changes were ascertained. Results: Surveys were submitted from 909 inpatient and outpatient centers performing cardiac diagnostic procedures, in 108 countries. Procedure volumes decreased 42% from March 2019 to March 2020, and 64% from March 2019 to April 2020. Transthoracic echocardiography decreased by 59%, transesophageal echocardiography 76%, and stress tests 78%, which varied between stress modalities. Coronary angiography (invasive or computed tomography) decreased 55% (p &lt; 0.001 for each procedure). In multivariable regression, significantly greater reduction in procedures occurred for centers in countries with lower gross domestic product. Location in a low-income and lower–middle-income country was associated with an additional 22% reduction in cardiac procedures and less availability of personal protective equipment and telehealth. Conclusions: COVID-19 was associated with a significant and abrupt reduction in cardiovascular diagnostic testing across the globe, especially affecting the world's economically challenged. Further study of cardiovascular outcomes and COVID-19–related changes in care delivery is warranted

Reduction of cardiac imaging tests during the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of Italy. Findings from the IAEA Non-invasive Cardiology Protocol Survey on COVID-19 (INCAPS COVID)

Background: In early 2020, COVID-19 massively hit Italy, earlier and harder than any other European country. This caused a series of strict containment measures, aimed at blocking the spread of the pandemic. Healthcare delivery was also affected when resources were diverted towards care of COVID-19 patients, including intensive care wards. Aim of the study: The aim is assessing the impact of COVID-19 on cardiac imaging in Italy, compare to the Rest of Europe (RoE) and the World (RoW). Methods: A global survey was conducted in May–June 2020 worldwide, through a questionnaire distributed online. The survey covered three periods: March and April 2020, and March 2019. Data from 52 Italian centres, a subset of the 909 participating centres from 108 countries, were analyzed. Results: In Italy, volumes decreased by 67% in March 2020, compared to March 2019, as opposed to a significantly lower decrease (p &lt; 0.001) in RoE and RoW (41% and 40%, respectively). A further decrease from March 2020 to April 2020 summed up to 76% for the North, 77% for the Centre and 86% for the South. When compared to the RoE and RoW, this further decrease from March 2020 to April 2020 in Italy was significantly less (p = 0.005), most likely reflecting the earlier effects of the containment measures in Italy, taken earlier than anywhere else in the West. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic massively hit Italy and caused a disruption of healthcare services, including cardiac imaging studies. This raises concern about the medium- and long-term consequences for the high number of patients who were denied timely diagnoses and the subsequent lifesaving therapies and procedures