Origin Gaps and the Eternal Sunshine of the Second-Order Pendulum

The rich experiences of an intentional, goal-oriented life emerge, in an unpredictable fashion, from the basic laws of physics. Here I argue that this unpredictability is no mirage: there are true gaps between life and non-life, mind and mindlessness, and even between functional societies and groups of Hobbesian individuals. These gaps, I suggest, emerge from the mathematics of self-reference, and the logical barriers to prediction that self-referring systems present. Still, a mathematical truth does not imply a physical one: the universe need not have made self-reference possible. It did, and the question then is how. In the second half of this essay, I show how a basic move in physics, known as renormalization, transforms the "forgetful" second-order equations of fundamental physics into a rich, self-referential world that makes possible the major transitions we care so much about. While the universe runs in assembly code, the coarse-grained version runs in LISP, and it is from that the world of aim and intention grows.Comment: FQXI Prize Essay 2017. 18 pages, including afterword on Ostrogradsky's Theorem and an exchange with John Bova, Dresden Craig, and Paul Livingsto

Evidence of strategic periodicities in collective conflict dynamics

We analyze the timescales of conflict decision-making in a primate society. We present evidence for multiple, periodic timescales associated with social decision-making and behavioral patterns. We demonstrate the existence of periodicities that are not directly coupled to environmental cycles or known ultraridian mechanisms. Among specific biological and socially-defined demographic classes, periodicities span timescales between hours and days, and many are not driven by exogenous or internal regularities. Our results indicate that they are instead driven by strategic responses to social interaction patterns. Analyses also reveal that a class of individuals, playing a critical functional role, policing, have a signature timescale on the order of one hour. We propose a classification of behavioral timescales analogous to those of the nervous system, with high-frequency, or $\alpha$-scale, behavior occurring on hour-long scales, through to multi-hour, or $\beta$-scale, behavior, and, finally $\gamma$ periodicities observed on a timescale of days.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in Journal of the Royal Society Interfac

Emergent regularities and scaling in armed conflict data

Armed conflict exhibits regularities beyond known power law distributions of fatalities and duration over varying culture and geography. We systematically cluster conflict reports from a database of $10^5$ events from Africa spanning 20 years into conflict avalanches. Conflict profiles collapse over a range of scales. Duration, diameter, extent, fatalities, and report totals satisfy mutually consistent scaling relations captured with a model combining geographic spread and local conflict-site growth. The emergence of such social scaling laws hints at principles guiding conflict evolution

Inductive Game Theory and the Dynamics of Animal Conflict

Conflict destabilizes social interactions and impedes cooperation at multiple scales of biological organization. Of fundamental interest are the causes of turbulent periods of conflict. We analyze conflict dynamics in an monkey society model system. We develop a technique, Inductive Game Theory, to extract directly from time-series data the decision-making strategies used by individuals and groups. This technique uses Monte Carlo simulation to test alternative causal models of conflict dynamics. We find individuals base their decision to fight on memory of social factors, not on short timescale ecological resource competition. Furthermore, the social assessments on which these decisions are based are triadic (self in relation to another pair of individuals), not pairwise. We show that this triadic decision making causes long conflict cascades and that there is a high population cost of the large fights associated with these cascades. These results suggest that individual agency has been over-emphasized in the social evolution of complex aggregates, and that pair-wise formalisms are inadequate. An appreciation of the empirical foundations of the collective dynamics of conflict is a crucial step towards its effective management

Social network and dominance hierarchy analyses at Chimpanzee Sanctuary Northwest

Different aspects of sociality bear considerable weight on the individual- and group-level welfare of captive nonhuman primates. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a useful tool for gaining a holistic understanding of the dynamic social relationships of captive primate groups. Gaining a greater understanding of captive chimpanzees through investigations of centrality, preferred and avoided relationships, dominance hierarchy, and social network diagrams can be useful in advising current management practices in sanctuaries and other captive settings. In this study, we investigated the dyadic social relationships, group-level social networks, and dominance hierarchy of seven chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) at Chimpanzee Sanctuary Northwest. We used focal-animal and instantaneous scan sampling to collect 106.75 total hours of associative, affiliative, and agonistic data from June to September 2016. We analyzed our data using SOCPROG to derive dominance hierarchies and network statistics, and we diagrammed the group\u27s social networks in NetDraw. Three individuals were most central in the grooming network, while two others had little connection. Through agonistic networks, we found that group members reciprocally exhibited agonism, and the group\u27s dominance hierarchy was statistically non-linear. One chimpanzee emerged as the most dominant through agonism but was least connected to other group members across affiliative networks. Our results indicate that the conventional methods used to calculate individuals\u27 dominance rank may be inadequate to wholly depict a group\u27s social relationships in captive sanctuary populations. Our results have an applied component that can aid sanctuary staff in a variety of ways to best ensure the improvement of group welfare