Insights from a systems view: How modelling can inform reform

Participatory modelling is one of several techniques that can help communities to share and test ideas, and to agree on the ‘best bet’ for improving the triple bottom line for individuals and for the community. Two case studies from Africa illustrate how participatory modelling can assist in this way, by informing communities, by providing an objective way to conduct ‘risk-free’ experiments and explore scenarios, and by helping people to gain the confidence needed to make changes. Progress towards a better triple bottom line often depends on having the confidence to take action, and modelling is one of several techniques that can help to build this confidence. The resulting model is not an endpoint, but a disposable ‘stepping stone’ in the developing this confidence. Thus for many models, success means being momentarily inspirational in the search for solutions, rather than being a permanent monument to a static concept

User Satisfaction: An Evaluation of a Carbon Credit Information System

This paper presents the analysis of user satisfaction with a web-based system that enables users to calculate the value of carbon credits for landholdings based on user-defined parameters including size of landholding, monoculture species, site quality, management & perpetration etc. For the purposes of this project, User Satisfaction was evaluated using questions based on the User Information Satisfaction (UIS) surveys demonstrated to validate the DeLone and McLean (1992, 2003) model of information systems success. The items in the survey used to test the UIS for this study were modified to suit the nature of the system under investigation, that is, a public, web-based information system. This differs from most previous UIS surveys which have been primarily used to examine proprietary, in-house applications. The paper reports the structural validity of the instrument using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modelling (SEM)

Evidence-based target characteristics for seedlings: Experimental design, initial results from field trials and future research

Low seedling quality is a pervasive problem for smallholder forestry in the Philippines. Intervention measures to improve seedling quality are being examined in a research project funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research. Field trials have been established as part of this ‘seedling enhancement project’ to compare performance on outplanting of Gmelina arborea when imported, selected and non-selected seeds are used. Itis expected that this research will provide important information for the development of evidence-based guidelines for seedling quality, and assist in refining the best practice manuals for seedling production

A systems approach to understanding linkages between national level policies, local action and the use of traditional knowledge to improve tree seedling production for smallholder and community forestry in the Philippines

This paper outlines ongoing research that is investigating ways to increase the supply of high quality planting materials for smallholder forestry in the Philippines. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) of the nursery sector that had been developed previously by one of the authors was further refined during a planning and implementation workshop for the ACIAR Smallholder Nursery project. The refined model was then used to identify key leverage points for intervention. Stakeholders at the planning and implementation workshop also developed a series of potential pilot projects to be considered for implementation as part of the project. The BBN was then used to explore potential impacts of possible policy interventions and from this process the ‘best bet’ intervention measures were identified and pilot studies initiated. Improving Technical Skills was consistently a very important intervention for lifting the effectiveness of all nursery sub-sectors. Training, however, which directly influences Technical Skills in the BBN model, was found to have little influence on Technical skills for the individual and communal nursery sectors in particular. Another interesting finding arising from the BBN, was that implementing interventions simultaneously, as an intervention package, is much more likely to improve nursery effectiveness that implementing a single intervention by itself. The analysis of the ratings of potential areas for intervention by participants revealed three main themes, namely Markets, Quality of Seedlings and Funding (of nurseries)

Researching Incomplete Markets: A Strategy for Timber Market Research in Leyte

The economic concepts of imperfect markets and incomplete information are examined, in the context of the market for smallholder timber in Leyte Province in the Philippines. A strategy is advanced to carry out timber market research, which involves identification of the supply chain and stakeholder groups in the Leyte timber market, snowball sampling to identify initial market agents, making contact with market agents to obtain initial information and identify those willing to be interviewed, and an interview survey with an unstructured questionnaire to obtain more detailed information. This amounts effectively to a series of case studies, obtained using qualitative research methods. Suggestions are made on how to process survey data, to provide information in support of the specific objectives of the market research

Farm Boundary Survey and Study Block Establishment: A Set of Prior Activities For ACIAR/ASEM/053/2003 − Tree Measurement And Socio-Economic Survey

This paper discusses the method and process of conducting the perimeter survey of farms identified for the ACIAR Tree Farm project. There were two sets of information on existing tree farms used in identifying farms for the study − from the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) and Local Government Units (LGUs). Within a municipality, barangays with the greatest number of qualified tree farms were given priority for validation of farm area and number of trees. A courtesy appearance and discussion with LGU officers was always the first step to finding the tree farms. Being referred or accompanied by somebody, usually a barangay official, each qualified tree farmer was visited in their house. The decision to establish and number of tree blocks to consider in a farm was based on age of the plantation, area, species and species mixture, spacing, average size of trees, topography, slope, elevation, presence of vegetative cover particularly grasses and shrubs, soil characteristics, and evidence of silvicultural applications. Using a computer and the Mapsource program or Excel spreadsheet to create a sketch is quick and easy. However, the field team sometimes spent full weeks carrying out surveys, and tree farm sketches were needed for the socio-economic interviews and tree measurement in the same week. Sketches therefore were made manually either drawn to a scale or sometimes not. As soon as possible after the fieldwork, data from the GPS were downloaded to the Mapsource program on the computer. For every original set of data a revised version was created getting rid of the track logs and leaving only the waypoints and routes to emphasize the farm and block boundaries. For future use, the original GPS data were retained

Modeling Deforestation at Distinct Geographic Scales and Time Periods in Santa Cruz, Bolivia

This article analyzes geo-referenced data to elucidate the relations between deforestation and access to roads and markets, attributes of the physical environment, land tenure, and zoning policies in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. It presents separate models for Santa Cruz as a whole and for seven different zones within Santa Cruz, as well as for two different time periods (pre-1989 and 1989 to 1994). The relation between deforestation and the explanatory variables varies depending on geographic scale and the zone and time period analyzed. At the department scale, locations closer to roads and the city and places that have more fertile soils and wetter climates have a greater probability of being deforested. The same applies to colonization areas. Protected areas and forest concessions are less likely to be deforested. Nevertheless, in many specific zones, these variables had no significant impact or actually had the opposite impact than in the entire department. Most of these relations were weaker between 1989 and 1994 than in the previous period