Sonic Boom Pressure Signature Uncertainty Calculation and Propagation to Ground Noise

The objective of this study was to outline an approach for the quantification of uncertainty in sonic boom measurements and to investigate the effect of various near-field uncertainty representation approaches on ground noise predictions. These approaches included a symmetric versus asymmetric uncertainty band representation and a dispersion technique based on a partial sum Fourier series that allows for the inclusion of random error sources in the uncertainty. The near-field uncertainty was propagated to the ground level, along with additional uncertainty in the propagation modeling. Estimates of perceived loudness were obtained for the various types of uncertainty representation in the near-field. Analyses were performed on three configurations of interest to the sonic boom community: the SEEB-ALR, the 69o DeltaWing, and the LM 1021-01. Results showed that representation of the near-field uncertainty plays a key role in ground noise predictions. Using a Fourier series based dispersion approach can double the amount of uncertainty in the ground noise compared to a pure bias representation. Compared to previous computational fluid dynamics results, uncertainty in ground noise predictions were greater when considering the near-field experimental uncertainty

Developing a macro cognitive common model test bed for real world expertise

A central challenge for the common model and for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is the development of functional human-like agents capable of performing complex tasks in dynamic real-world environments. The cognitive test-bed model approach is a method of applying Allen Newell's Single Complex Task Analysis method to create a human-like AGI. In addition to the environment, we include expertise in the test-bed. The expertise is placed in the agent, and the agent is placed within the environment and provided with complex tasks to perform. The agent development process and agent task performance was gauged for backwards compatibility in the performance of open-ended tasks

Short-term forecasting of the prevalence of clinical trachoma: utility of including delayed recovery and tests for infection.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization aims to control blinding trachoma by 2020. Decisions on whether to start and stop mass treatments and when to declare that control has been achieved are currently based on clinical examination data generated in population-based surveys. Thresholds are based on the district-level prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years. Forecasts of which districts may and may not meet TF control goals by the 2020 target date could affect resource allocation in the next few years. METHODS: We constructed a hidden Markov model fit to the prevalence of two clinical signs of trachoma and PCR data in 24 communities from the recent PRET-Niger trial. The prevalence of TF in children in each community at 36 months was forecast given data from earlier time points. Forecasts were scored by the likelihood of the observed results. We assessed whether use of TF with additional TI and PCR data rather than just the use of TF alone improves forecasts, and separately whether incorporating a delay in TF recovery is beneficial. RESULTS: Including TI and PCR data did not significantly improve forecasts of TF. Forecasts of TF prevalence at 36 months by the model with the delay in TF recovery were significantly better than forecasts by the model without the delay in TF recovery (p = 0.003). A zero-inflated truncated normal observation model was better than a truncated normal observation model, and better than a sensitivity-specificity observation model. CONCLUSION: The results in this study suggest that future studies could consider using just TF data for forecasting, and should include a delay in TF recovery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922

Associations of hemoglobin A1c with cognition reduced for long diabetes duration

IntroductionAssociations of some risk factors with poor cognition, identified prior to age 75, are reduced or reversed in very old age. The Protected Survivor Model predicts this interaction due to enhanced survival of those with extended risk factor duration. In a younger sample, this study examines the association of cognition with the mean hemoglobin A1c risk factor over the time at risk, according to its duration.MethodsThe interaction of mean hemoglobin A1c (averageâ =â 9.8%), evaluated over duration (averageâ =â 116.8â months), was examined for overall cognition and three cognitive domains in a sample of 150 â youngâ oldâ veterans (mean ageâ =â 70) with type 2 diabetes.ResultsThe predicted interactions were significant for overall cognition and attention, but not executive functions/language and memory.DiscussionFindings extend the Protected Survivor Model to a â youngâ oldâ sample, from the very old. This model suggests focusing on individuals with good cognition despite prolonged high risk when seeking protective factors.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/152553/1/trc2jtrci201911009.pd

A Cluster-Randomized Trial to Assess the Efficacy of Targeting Trachoma Treatment to Children.

Background: The World Health Organization recommends annual treatment of entire trachoma-endemic communities, although children typically have a higher load, longer duration, and greater likelihood of infection. Methods: Forty-eight communities in Matameye, Niger, were randomized to annual oral azithromycin treatment of the entire community or biannual treatment of children aged 0-12 years only. Both children and adults were monitored for ocular chlamydial infection by polymerase chain reaction. Results: The prevalence of childhood infection was reduced in the annually treated arm from 21.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.2%-28.0%) at baseline to 5.8% (95% CI, 3.2%-9.0%) at 36 months (P < .001) and in the biannual arm from 20.2% (95% CI, 15.5%-25.3%) to 3.8% (95% CI, 2.2%-6.0%; P < .001). Adult infection in the annual arm was reduced from 1.7% (95% CI, .9%-2.7%) to 0.3% (95% CI, .0%-.7%) and in the biannual arm from 1.2% (95% CI, .5%-2.2%) to 0.0% (95% CI, .0%-.7%; P = .005). The effect of biannual treatment of children compared with annual treatment of the entire community in both children (95% CI, -.04% to .02%) and adults (95% CI, .9%-2.7%) excluded the prespecified noninferiority threshold of 6% (P = .003 and P < .001, respectively). Conclusions: Periodic distribution of antibiotics to children in trachoma-endemic communities reduces chlamydial infection in both children and untreated adults, suggesting a form of herd protection. Biannual treatment of children was comparable to (specifically, noninferior to) annual treatment of the entire community, and may offer lower antibiotic use and other logistical advantages. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00792922

Biannual versus annual mass azithromycin distribution and malaria seroepidemiology among preschool children in Niger: a sub-study of a cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Biannual mass azithromycin administration to preschool children reduces all-cause mortality, but the mechanism for the effect is not understood. Azithromycin has activity against malaria parasites, and malaria is a leading cause of child mortality in the Sahel. The effect of biannual versus annual azithromycin distribution for trachoma control on serological response to merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP-119), a surrogate for malaria incidence, was evaluated among children in Niger. METHODS: Markers of malaria exposure were measured in two arms of a factorial randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate targeted biannual azithromycin distribution to children under 12 years of age compared to annual azithromycin to the entire community for trachoma control (N = 12 communities per arm). Communities were treated for 36 months (6 versus 3 distributions). Dried blood spots were collected at 36 months among children ages 1-5 years, and MSP-119 antibody levels were assessed using a bead-based multiplex assay to measure malaria seroprevalence. RESULTS: Antibody results were available for 991 children. MSP-119 seropositivity was 62.7% in the biannual distribution arm compared to 68.7% in the annual arm (prevalence ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.00). Mean semi-quantitative antibody levels were lower in the biannual distribution arm compared to the annual arm (mean difference - 0.39, 95% CI - 0.05 to - 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Targeted biannual azithromycin distribution was associated with lower malaria seroprevalence compared to that in a population that received annual distribution. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922