Changes in the Distribution of Income Volatility

Recent research has documented a significant rise in the volatility (e.g., expected squared change) of individual incomes in the U.S. since the 1970s. Existing measures of this trend abstract from individual heterogeneity, effectively estimating an increase in average volatility. We decompose this increase in average volatility and find that it is far from representative of the experience of most people: there has been no systematic rise in volatility for the vast majority of individuals. The rise in average volatility has been driven almost entirely by a sharp rise in the income volatility of those expected to have the most volatile incomes, identified ex-ante by large income changes in the past. We document that the self-employed and those who self-identify as risk-tolerant are much more likely to have such volatile incomes; these groups have experienced much larger increases in income volatility than the population at large. These results color the policy implications one might draw from the rise in average volatility. While the basic results are apparent from PSID summary statistics, providing a complete characterization of the dynamics of the volatility distribution is a methodological challenge. We resolve these difficulties with a Markovian hierarchical Dirichlet process that builds on work from the non-parametric Bayesian statistics literature

A solvable non-conservative model of Self-Organized Criticality

We present the first solvable non-conservative sandpile-like critical model of Self-Organized Criticality (SOC), and thereby substantiate the suggestion by Vespignani and Zapperi [A. Vespignani and S. Zapperi, Phys. Rev. E 57, 6345 (1998)] that a lack of conservation in the microscopic dynamics of an SOC-model can be compensated by introducing an external drive and thereby re-establishing criticality. The model shown is critical for all values of the conservation parameter. The analytical derivation follows the lines of Broeker and Grassberger [H.-M. Broeker and P. Grassberger, Phys. Rev. E 56, 3944 (1997)] and is supported by numerical simulation. In the limit of vanishing conservation the Random Neighbor Forest Fire Model (R-FFM) is recovered.Comment: 4 pages in RevTeX format (2 Figures) submitted to PR

Giffen Behavior: Theory and Evidence

This paper provides the first real-world evidence of Giffen behavior, i.e., upward sloping demand. Subsidizing the prices of dietary staples for extremely poor households in two provinces of China, we find strong evidence of Giffen behavior for rice in Hunan, and weaker evidence for wheat in Gansu. The data provide new insight into the consumption behavior of the poor, who act as though maximizing utility subject to subsistence concerns, with both demand and calorie elasticities depending significantly, and non-linearly, on the severity of their poverty. Understanding this heterogeneity is important for the effective design of welfare programs for the poor.

Bursts and Shocks in a Continuum Shell Model

We study a "burst" event, i. e. the evolution of an initial condition having support only in a finite interval of k-space, in the continuum shell model due to Parisi. We show that the continuum equation without forcing or dissipation can be explicitly written in characteristic form and that the right and left moving parts can be solved exactly. When this is supplemented by the appropriate shock condition it is possible to find the asymptotic form of the burst.Comment: 15 pages, 2 eps figures included, Latex 2e. Contribution to the proceedings of the conference: Disorder and Chaos, in honour of Giovanni Paladin, September 22-24, 1997, in Rom

Excitable human dynamics driven by extrinsic events in massive communities

Using empirical data from a social media site (Twitter) and on trading volumes of financial securities, we analyze the correlated human activity in massive social organizations. The activity, typically excited by real-world events and measured by the occurrence rate of international brand names and trading volumes, is characterized by intermittent fluctuations with bursts of high activity separated by quiescent periods. These fluctuations are broadly distributed with an inverse cubic tail and have long-range temporal correlations with a $1/f$ power spectrum. We describe the activity by a stochastic point process and derive the distribution of activity levels from the corresponding stochastic differential equation. The distribution and the corresponding power spectrum are fully consistent with the empirical observations.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

Comparison of the Effective Interaction to Various Orders in Different Mass Regions

The convergence of the perturbation expansion for the effective interaction to be used in shell-model calculations is investigated as function of the mass number $A$, from $A=4$ to $A=208$. As the mass number increases, there are more intermediate states to sum over in each higher-order diagram which contributes to the effective interaction. Together with the fact that the energy denominators in each diagram are smaller for larger mass numbers, these two effects could largely enhance higher-order contributions to the effective interaction, thereby deteriorating the order-by-order convergence of the effective interaction. This effect is counterbalanced by the short range of the nucleon-nucleon interaction, which implies that its matrix elements are weaker for valence single-particle states in ``large'' nuclei with large mass number as compared to those in light nuclei. These effects are examined by comparing various mean values of the matrix elements. It turns out that the contributions from higher-order terms remain fairly stable as the mass number increases from $A=4$ to $A=208$. The implications for nuclear structure calculations are discussed.Comment: Revtex, 20 pages, 1 figure not include

The Two-Body Random Ensemble in Nuclei

Combining analytical and numerical methods, we investigate properties of the two-body random ensemble (TBRE). We compare the TBRE with the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble of random matrices. Using the geometric properties of the nuclear shell model, we discuss the information content of nuclear spectra, and gain insight in the difficulties encountered when fitting the effective interaction. We exhibit the existence of correlations between spectral widths pertaining to different quantum numbers. Using these results, we deduce the preponderance of spin-zero ground states in the TBRE. We demonstrate the existence of correlations between spectra with different quantum numbers and/or in different nuclei.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figure

Nonuniversal Critical Spreading in Two Dimensions

Continuous phase transitions are studied in a two dimensional nonequilibrium model with an infinite number of absorbing configurations. Spreading from a localized source is characterized by nonuniversal critical exponents, which vary continuously with the density phi in the surrounding region. The exponent delta changes by more than an order of magnitude, and eta changes sign. The location of the critical point also depends on phi, which has important implications for scaling. As expected on the basis of universality, the static critical behavior belongs to the directed percolation class.Comment: 21 pages, REVTeX, figures available upon reques

Overview of the 2005 cross-language image retrieval track (ImageCLEF)

The purpose of this paper is to outline efforts from the 2005 CLEF crosslanguage image retrieval campaign (ImageCLEF). The aim of this CLEF track is to explore the use of both text and content-based retrieval methods for cross-language image retrieval. Four tasks were offered in the ImageCLEF track: a ad-hoc retrieval from an historic photographic collection, ad-hoc retrieval from a medical collection, an automatic image annotation task, and a user-centered (interactive) evaluation task that is explained in the iCLEF summary. 24 research groups from a variety of backgrounds and nationalities (14 countries) participated in ImageCLEF. In this paper we describe the ImageCLEF tasks, submissions from participating groups and summarise the main fndings