Including changes in security of supply in cost benefit analysis – an application to oil prices in the transport sector

This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account changes in security of supply in real world cost-benefit analysis. Assuming that consumers are risk avers, security of supply can be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for in- stance oil. When the government makes transport related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices on alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the paper, a method of valuing changes in security of supply based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport related examples. They indicate that includ- ing the value of changes in security of supply often makes very little difference to the results of cost benefit analysis, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers’ risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn

The emission consequences of using biodiesel and bio ethanol as a fuel for road transport in Denmark

This article explains the emission consequences of using biodiesel and bio ethanol as a fuel for road transport in Denmark calculated in the REBECa project. For the years 2004, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, two fossil fuel baseline scenarios (FS) are considered characterised by different traffic growth rates. For each FS, two biofuel scenarios (BS1, BS2) are considered with a 5.75 % biodiesel/bio ethanol share in 2010 as a common starting point. From 2010, linear growths are assumed for BS1 (10 % in 2020) and BS2 (25 % in 2030). The emissions presented in this study are vehicle based; a separate Well to Wheels (W-t-W) assessment of the total emission consequences of producing and using biofuels has been conducted in a different part of REBECa. The maximum CO2 emission difference between FS and BS2 becomes 26 % in 2030. The NOx and VOC emission variations between FS and both biofuel scenarios are 3 % or less. For CO and TSP the largest emission differences, 5 % and -12 %, respectively, occur between the FS and BS2 scenarios in 2030. The biofuel emission impacts are insignificant for NOx,VOC, CO and TSP compared to the generally large emission reductions predicted in all scenarios driven by the gradual strengthened emission standards for new vehicles, by far outweighing the emission influence from biofuels and traffic growth. The emission estimates for NOx, VOC, CO and TSP presented in this study are less certain than for CO2 due to the relatively scarce biofuel emission data implemented in the calculations. As a consequence, the obtained emission results must be assessed with care. Bearing in mind these uncertainties, the calculation approach for emissions from biofuel usage presented in this study can be used as a tool to carry out sensitivity analysis, environmental impact assessment studies, or for research purposes as such

The Emission consequences of using biodiesel and bio ethanol as a fuel for road transport in Denmark

This article explains the emission consequences of using biodiesel and bio ethanol as a fuel for road transport in Denmark calculated in the REBECa project. For the years 2004, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, two fossil fuel baseline scenarios (FS) are considered characterised by different traffic growth rates. For each FS, two biofuel scenarios (BS1, BS2) are considered with a 5.75 % biodiesel/bio ethanol share in 2010 as a common starting point. From 2010, linear growths are assumed for BS1 (10 % in 2020) and BS2 (25 % in 2030). The emissions presented in this study are vehicle based; a separate Well to Wheels (W-t-W) assessment of the total emission consequences of producing and using biofuels has been conducted in a different part of REBECa. The maximum CO2 emission difference between FS and BS2 becomes 26 % in 2030. The NOx and VOC emission variations between FS and both biofuel scenarios are 3 % or less. For CO and TSP the largest emission differences, 5 % and -12 %, respectively, occur between the FS and BS2 scenarios in 2030. The biofuel emission impacts are insignificant for NOx,VOC, CO and TSP compared to the generally large emission reductions predicted in all scenarios driven by the gradual strengthened emission standards for new vehicles, by far outweighing the emission influence from biofuels and traffic growth. The emission estimates for NOX, VOC, CO and TSP presented in this study are less certain than for CO2 due to the relatively scarce biofuel emission data implemented in the calculations. As a consequence, the obtained emission results must be assessed with care. Bearing in mind these uncertainties, the calculation approach for emissions from biofuel usage presented in this study can be used as a tool to carry out sensitivity analysis, environmental impact assessment studies, or for research purposes as such

Exploring for extended continental shelf claims off Greenland and the Faroe Islands – geological perspectives

Following the expected ratification in 2004 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS from 1982), Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands have a period of maximum 10 years to make claims beyond 200 nautical miles (NM) in five potential areas off Greenland and the Faroe Islands (Fig. 1). In order to provide the necessary database, the Danish Continental Shelf Project has been launched by the Ministry for Science, Technology and Innovation in cooperation with the Faroese and Greenland Home Rule governments. Several institutions are participating in this project, with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) as the coordinator of the technical work for the Greenland part of the project, and sharing the responsibility for coordination of the Faroese part with the Faroese Geological Survey (JFS)

Symptom, diagnosis and mortality among respiratory emergency medical service patients

ObjectiveBreathing difficulties and respiratory diseases have been under-reported in Emergency Medical Services research, despite these conditions being prevalent with substantial mortality. Our aim was two-fold; 1) to investigate the diagnostic pattern and mortality among EMS patients to whom an ambulance was dispatched due to difficulty breathing, and 2) to investigate the initial symptoms and mortality for EMS patients diagnosed with respiratory diseases in hospital.MethodsPopulation-based historic cohort study in the North Denmark Region 2012-2015. We included two patient groups; 1) patients calling the emergency number with breathing difficulty as main symptom, and 2) patients diagnosed with respiratory diseases in hospital following an emergency call. Main outcome was estimated 1- and 30-day mortality rates.ResultsThere were 3803 patients with the symptom breathing difficulty, nearly half were diagnosed with respiratory diseases 47.3%, followed by circulatory diseases 13.4%, and symptoms and signs 12.0%. The 1-day mortality rate was highest for circulatory diseases, then respiratory diseases and other factors. Over-all 30-day mortality was 13.2%, and the highest rate was for circulatory diseases (17.7%) then respiratory diseases and other factors. A total of 4014 patients were diagnosed with respiratory diseases, 44.8% had the symptom breathing difficulty, 13.4% unclear problems and 11.3%. chest pain/heart disease. 1-day mortality rates were highest for decreased consciousness, then breathing difficulties and unclear problem. Over-all 30-day mortality rates were 12.5%, the highest with symptoms of decreased consciousness (19.1%), then unclear problem and breathing difficulty. There was an overlap of 1797 patients between the two groups.ConclusionsThe over-all mortality rates alongside the distribution of symptoms and diagnoses, suggest the breathing difficulty patient group is complex and has severe health problems. These findings may be able to raise awareness towards the patient group, and thereby increase focus on diagnostics and treatment to improve the patient outcome

Cancers of unknown primary origin (CUP) are characterized by chromosomal instability (CIN) compared to metastasis of know origin

BACKGROUND: Cancers of unknown primary (CUPs) constitute ~5% of all cancers. The tumors have an aggressive biological and clinical behavior. The aim of the present study has been to uncover whether CUPs exhibit distinct molecular features compared to metastases of known origin. METHODS: Employing genome wide transcriptome analysis, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA), we defined the putative origins of a large series of CUP and how closely related a particular CUP was to corresponding metastases of known origin. LDA predictions were subsequently used to define a universal CUP core set of differentially expressed genes, that by means of gene set enrichment analysis was exploited to depict molecular pathways characterizing CUP. RESULTS: The analyses show that CUPs are distinct from metastases of known origin. CUPs exhibit inconsistent expression of conventional cancer biomarkers and QDA derived outlier scores show that CUPs are more distantly related to their primary tumor class than corresponding metastases of known origin. Gene set enrichment analysis showed that CUPs display increased expression of genes involved in DNA damage repair and mRNA signatures of chromosome instability (CIN), indicating that CUPs are chromosome unstable compared to metastases of known origin. CONCLUSIONS: CIN may account for the uncommon clinical presentation, chemoresistance and poor outcome in patients with CUP and warrant selective diagnostic strategies and treatment. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-015-1128-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Systems analysis approach to the design of efficient water pricing policies under the EU Water Framework Directive

Economic theory suggests that water pricing can contribute to efficient management of water scarcity. The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD) is a major legislative effort to introduce the use of economic instruments to encourage efficient water use and achieve environmental management objectives. However, the design and implementation of economic instruments for water management, including water pricing, has emerged as a challenging aspect of WFD implementation. This study demonstrates the use of a systems analysis approach to designing and comparing two economic approaches to efficient management of groundwater and surface water given EU WFD ecological flow requirements. Under the first approach, all wholesale water users in a river basin face the same volumetric price for water. This water price does not vary in space or in time, and surface water and groundwater are priced at the same rate. Under the second approach, surface water is priced using a volumetric price, while groundwater use is controlled through adjustments to the price of energy, which is assumed to control the cost of groundwater pumping. For both pricing policies, optimization is used to identify optimal prices, with the objective of maximizing welfare while reducing human water use in order to meet constraints associated with EU WFD ecological and groundwater sustainability objectives. The systems analysis approach demonstrates the successful integration of economic, hydrologic, and environmental components into an integrated framework for the design and testing of water pricing policies. In comparison to the first pricing policy, the second pricing policy, in which the energy price is used as a surrogate for a groundwater price, shifts a portion of costs imposed by higher water prices from low-value crops to high-value crops and from small urban/domestic locations to larger locations. Because growers of low-value crops will suffer the most from water price increases, the use of energy costs to control groundwater use offers the advantage of reducing this burden.The authors would like to thank the Danish Research School of Water Resources (FIVA) for financial support. Three anonymous reviewers made helpful suggestions that were incorporated into the revised version.Riegels, N.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Doulgeris, C.; Sturm, V.; Jensen, R.; Moller, F.; Bauer-Gottwein, P. (2013). Systems analysis approach to the design of efficient water pricing policies under the EU Water Framework Directive. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 139(5):574-582. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000284S574582139