Global Projections of Household Numbers Using Age Determined Ratios

A new method based upon age determined population ratios is described and used to estimate household population intensities (households per person). Using an additive and a bounded model household projections are given to 2050 for the world and to 2030 for seven fertility transition subgroups (cohorts) of the countries of the world. Based upon United Nations 2002 Revision data, from an estimated 1.56 billion households at 2000, household growth to 2030 is projected to be an additional 1.1 billion households, whether population increase is 1.3 billion persons under the United Nations low fertility variant or 2.7 billion persons under the high fertility variant. At that date over one third of all households are projected to be Chinese or Indian. By 2050 it is projected that there will be 3.3 billion households with a 95 per cent confidence interval on modelling error only of ± 0.5 billion. This compares with 3.2 billion in the Habitat: Global Report on Human Settlements 1996. The apparent similarity of total household growth under various scenarios conceals a wide range in the growth of household intensities across fertility transition cohorts. It is suggested that models, projections and error be reviewed biennially and that household and population projections be produced jointly.Household projections, world, age ratios, fertility

Academic Honesty, Professional Integrity, and Undergraduate Engineering Students: Exploring the Connections

One benefit of inculcating professionalism into engineering degree program curricula is a measure of the extent to which future practitioners adopt an engineering code of ethics (Abaté, 2011; Davis, 2006). Studies have indicated more dishonesty among engineering students than other groups of undergraduate learners, but the effects of technology on dishonesty in the classroom was not addressed (Bowers, 1964; McCabe et al., 2012). An explanatory, sequential mixed methods study was designed to explain to what degree course pedagogical practices and attitudes of civil, architectural and environmental engineering students of various academic levels (freshman/sophomore and senior) relate to academic dishonesty. The design allowed for the collection of quantitative survey data from engineering students and the instructors who teach those students through self-reports of attempted dishonest behavior, perceived descriptive norms and descriptions/definitions of the behaviors by both students and their instructors and reporting the consistencies and inconsistencies between the two groups. Additionally, instructors were surveyed for the courses in the program sequence of courses which connected the two courses under study to determine student attitudes, intentions and actions as well as instructor perceptions of the same behavioral characteristics based upon Ajzen’s (1991) theory of planned behavior. Overall freshman/sophomore engineering students (n=31) described the 12 academically dishonest behaviors as less dishonest than graduating seniors (n=52). There were five statistically significant differences in attempted dishonest behaviors between the two student groups. Perceptions were also significantly different. Senior students perceived dishonest behaviors similarly to instructors (n=6), for 11 of 12 dishonest behaviors while freshman perceived higher rates of dishonesty than the actual self-reports

Moral Panics and Punctuated Equilibrium in Public Policy: An Analysis of the Criminal Justice Policy Agenda in Britain

How and when issues are elevated onto the political agenda is a perennial question in the study of public policy. This article considers how moral panics contribute to punctuated equilibrium in public policy by drawing together broader societal anxieties or fears and thereby precipitating or accelerating changes in the dominant set of issue frames. In so doing they create opportunities for policy entrepreneurs to disrupt the existing policy consensus. In a test of this theory, we assess the factors behind the rise of crime on the policy agenda in Britain between 1960 and 2010. We adopt an integrative mixed-methods approach, drawing upon a combination of qualitative and quantitative data. This enables us to analyze the rise of crime as a policy problem, the breakdown of the political-institutional consensus on crime, the moral panic that followed the murder of the toddler James Bulger in 1993, the emergence of new issue frames around crime and social/moral decay more broadly, and how—in combination—these contributed to an escalation of political rhetoric and action on crime, led by policy entrepreneurs in the Labour and Conservative parties

Using ideas derived from historical institutionalism to illuminate the long-term impacts on crime of ‘Thatcherite’ social and economic policies

In this working paper, we outline our thinking on a very large and complex undertaking; namely the assessment of the ways in which the Thatcher governments of the 1980s may have had quite unintended consequences on crime via some of the policies which they set about pursuing for quite separate reasons, but which, nevertheless contributed to amongst other things, the upswing in crime in the 1980s. Our thinking is not heavily informed by theories commonly examined by criminologists; instead our thinking about both the causal antecedents of these governments and their approach to re-engineering society, and the causal antecedents of crime are informed by thinking inspired by historical institutionalist scholars writing within political science, and sociological and economic theories of crime causation. We outline historical institutionalism and identify the ways in which it may be of use to ourselves

On the response of a particle detector in Anti-de Sitter spacetime

We consider the vacuum response of a particle detector in Anti-de Sitter spacetime, and in particular analyze how spacetime features such as curvature and dimensionality affect the response spectrum of an accelerated detector. We calculate useful limits on Wightman functions, analyze the dynamics of the detector in terms of vacuum fluctuations and radiation reactions, and discuss the thermalization process for the detector. We also present a generalization of the GEMS approach and obtain the Gibbons-Hawking temperature of de Sitter spacetime as an embedded Unruh temperature in a curved Anti-de Sitter spacetime.Comment: 13 pages, no figures, accepted for publication in Class. Quantum Gra

The WAY theorem and the quantum resource theory of asymmetry

The WAY theorem establishes an important constraint that conservation laws impose on quantum mechanical measurements. We formulate the WAY theorem in the broader context of resource theories, where one is constrained to a subset of quantum mechanical operations described by a symmetry group. Establishing connections with the theory of quantum state discrimination we obtain optimal unitaries describing the measurement of arbitrary observables, explain how prior information can permit perfect measurements that circumvent the WAY constraint, and provide a framework that establishes a natural ordering on measurement apparatuses through a decomposition into asymmetry and charge subsystems.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure

What kind of Brexit do voters want? Lessons from the Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit

The Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit was a major exercise in deliberative public engagement conducted in autumn 2017. It brought together fifty randomly selected members of the public for two carefully structured weekends of listening, learning, reflecting and discussing. Assembly Members considered what post-Brexit arrangements the UK should pursue, focusing on trade and migration. On trade, most Members wanted the UK to pursue a bespoke arrangement with the EU and rejected the option of leaving the EU with no deal. On migration, most wanted the UK to maintain free movement of labour while using already available policy levers to reduce immigration numbers. These findings provide unique insight into informed public opinion on vital, pressing policy questions. The Assembly also illustrates the valuable role that such deliberative exercises could play in UK democracy. We suggest they could be particular helpful for unlocking progress on issues, such as the future of social care, that are often felt to be ‘too difficult’ to handle