204 research outputs found

    Galaxy Peculiar Velocities From Large-Scale Supernova Surveys as a Dark Energy Probe

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    Upcoming imaging surveys such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope will repeatedly scan large areas of sky and have the potential to yield million-supernova catalogs. Type Ia supernovae are excellent standard candles and will provide distance measures that suffice to detect mean pairwise velocities of their host galaxies. We show that when combining these distance measures with photometric redshifts for either the supernovae or their host galaxies, the mean pairwise velocities of the host galaxies will provide a dark energy probe which is competitive with other widely discussed methods. Adding information from this test to type Ia supernova photometric luminosity distances from the same experiment, plus the cosmic microwave background power spectrum from the Planck satellite, improves the Dark Energy Task Force Figure of Merit by a factor of 1.8. Pairwise velocity measurements require no additional observational effort beyond that required to perform the traditional supernova luminosity distance test, but may provide complementary constraints on dark energy parameters and the nature of gravity. Incorporating additional spectroscopic redshift follow-up observations could provide important dark energy constraints from pairwise velocities alone. Mean pairwise velocities are much less sensitive to systematic redshift errors than the luminosity distance test or weak lensing techniques, and also are only mildly affected by systematic evolution of supernova luminosity.Comment: 18 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables; replaced to match the accepted versio

    A Diffusion Network Event History Estimator

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    Research on the diffusion of political decisions across jurisdictions typically accounts for units’ influence over each other with (1) observable measures or (2) by inferring latent network ties from past decisions. The former approach assumes that interdependence is static and perfectly captured by the data. The latter mitigates these issues but requires analytical tools that are separate from the main empirical methods for studying diffusion. As a solution, we introduce network event history analysis (NEHA), which incorporates latent network inference into conventional discrete-time event history models. We demonstrate NEHA’s unique methodological and substantive benefits in applications to policy adoption in the American states. Researchers can analyze the ties and structure of inferred networks to refine model specifications, evaluate diffusion mechanisms, or test new or existing hypotheses. By capturing targeted relationships unexplained by standard covariates, NEHA can improve models, facilitate richer theoretical development, and permit novel analyses of the diffusion process

    Use of behavioral economics and social psychology to improve treatment of acute respiratory infections (BEARI): rationale and design of a cluster randomized controlled trial [1RC4AG039115-01] - study protocol and baseline practice and provider characteristics

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    Background: Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for nonbacterial infections leads to increases in the costs of care, antibiotic resistance among bacteria, and adverse drug events. Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the most common reason for inappropriate antibiotic use. Most prior efforts to decrease inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for ARIs (e.g., educational or informational interventions) have relied on the implicit assumption that clinicians inappropriately prescribe antibiotics because they are unaware of guideline recommendations for ARIs. If lack of guideline awareness is not the reason for inappropriate prescribing, educational interventions may have limited impact on prescribing rates. Instead, interventions that apply social psychological and behavioral economic principles may be more effective in deterring inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for ARIs by well-informed clinicians. Methods/design The Application of Behavioral Economics to Improve the Treatment of Acute Respiratory Infections (BEARI) Trial is a multisite, cluster-randomized controlled trial with practice as the unit of randomization. The primary aim is to test the ability of three interventions based on behavioral economic principles to reduce the rate of inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for ARIs. We randomized practices in a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial design to receive up to three interventions for non-antibiotic-appropriate diagnoses: 1) Accountable Justifications: When prescribing an antibiotic for an ARI, clinicians are prompted to record an explicit justification that appears in the patient electronic health record; 2) Suggested Alternatives: Through computerized clinical decision support, clinicians prescribing an antibiotic for an ARI receive a list of non-antibiotic treatment choices (including prescription options) prior to completing the antibiotic prescription; and 3) Peer Comparison: Each provider’s rate of inappropriate antibiotic prescribing relative to top-performing peers is reported back to the provider periodically by email. We enrolled 269 clinicians (practicing attending physicians or advanced practice nurses) in 49 participating clinic sites and collected baseline data. The primary outcome is the antibiotic prescribing rate for office visits with non-antibiotic-appropriate ARI diagnoses. Secondary outcomes will examine antibiotic prescribing more broadly. The 18-month intervention period will be followed by a one year follow-up period to measure persistence of effects after interventions cease. Discussion The ongoing BEARI Trial will evaluate the effectiveness of behavioral economic strategies in reducing inappropriate prescribing of antibiotics. Trials registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT0145494
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