Reverse Electoral Business Cycles and Housing Markets

We argue that the political uncertainty generated by elections encourages private actors to delay investments that entail high costs of reversal, creating a pre-election decline in economic activity entitled a "reverse electoral business cycle." This incentive for delay becomes greater as policy differences between parties/candidates increase. Using new survey and observational data from the United States, we test these arguments. The individual-level analysis assesses whether respondents' perceptions of presidential candidates' policy differences increased the likelihood of postponing certain actions and purchases. For one of these items, housing, we collected observational data to examine whether electoral cycles indeed induce a pre-election decline in economic activity. The findings support the predictions and cannot be explained by existing theories of political business cycles.

Electoral Business Cycles in OECD Countries

Studies of OECD countries have generally failed to detect real economic expansions in the pre-election period, casting doubt on the existence of opportunistic political business cycles. We develop a theory that predicts a substantial portion of the economy experiences a real decline in the pre-election period. Specifically, the political uncertainty created by elections induces private actors to postpone investments with high costs of reversal. The resulting declines, referred to as reverse electoral business cycles, are larger the more competitive the electoral race and the greater the polarization between major parties. We test these predictions using quarterly data on private fixed investment in ten OECD countries between 1975 and 2006. The results suggest that reverse electoral business cycles exist, and as expected, depend on electoral competitiveness and partisan polarization. Moreover, simply by removing private fixed investment from gross domestic product (GDP), we uncover robust evidence of opportunistic cycles.

Potential impact of vegetation feedback on European heat waves in a 2 x CO 2 climate: Vegetation impact on European heat waves

Inclusion of the effects of vegetation feedback in a global climate change simulation suggests that the vegetation–climate feedback works to alleviate partially the summer surface warming and the associated heat waves over Europe induced by the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The projected warming of 4°C over most of Europe with static vegetation has been reduced by 1°C as the dynamic vegetation feedback effects are included.. Examination of the simulated surface energy fluxes suggests that additional greening in the presence of vegetation feedback effects enhances evapotranspiration and precipitation, thereby limiting the warming, particularly in the daily maximum temperature. The greening also tends to reduce the frequency and duration of heat waves. Results in this study strongly suggest that the inclusion of vegetation feedback within climate models is a crucial factor for improving the projection of warm season temperatures and heat waves over Europe

Association of pre-operative medication use with post-operative delirium in surgical oncology patients receiving comprehensive geriatric assessment

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Abstract Background Older patients undergoing surgery tend to have a higher frequency of delirium. Delirium is strongly associated with poor surgical outcomes. This study evaluated the association between pre-operative medication use and post-operative delirium (POD) in surgical oncology patients receiving comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). Methods A total of 475 patients who were scheduled for cancer surgery and received CGA from January 2014 to June 2015 were included. Pre-operative medication review through CGA was conducted on polypharmacy (≥5 medications), delirium-inducing medications (DIMs), fall-inducing medications (FIMs), and potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs). POD was confirmed by psychiatric consultation, and DSM-V criteria were used for diagnosing delirium. The model fit of the prediction model was assessed by computing the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Effect size was measured using the Nagelkerke R2. Discrimination of the model was assessed by an analysis of the area under receiver operating curve (AUROC). Results Two models were constructed for multivariate analysis based on univariate analysis; model I included dementia and DIM in addition to age and sex, and model II included PIM instead of DIM of model I. Every one year increase of age increased the risk of POD by about 1.1-fold. DIM was a significant factor for POD after adjusting for confounders (AOR 12.78, 95 % CI 2.83-57.74). PIM was also a significant factor for POD (AOR 5.53, 95 % CI 2.03-15.05). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results revealed good fits for both models (χ2 = 3.842, p = 0.871 for model I and χ2 = 8.130, p = 0.421 for model II). The Nagelkerke R2 effect size and AUROC for model I was 0.215 and 0.833, respectively. Model II had the Nagelkerke R2effect size of 0.174 and AUROC of 0.819. Conclusions These results suggest that pharmacists comprehensive review for pre-operative medication use is critical for the post-operative outcomes like delirium in older patients

Enhanced immune response with foot and mouth disease virus VP1 and interleukin-1 fusion genes

The capsid of the foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus carries the epitopes that are critical for inducing the immune response. In an attempt to enhance the specific immune response, plasmid DNA was constructed to express VP1/interleukin-1α (IL-1α) and precursor capsid (P1) in combination with 2A (P1-2A)/IL-1α under the control of the human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) immediateearly promoter and intron. After DNA transfection into MA104 (monkey kidney) cells, Western blotting and an immunofluorescence assay were used to confirm the expression of VP1 or P1-2A and IL-1α. Mice were inoculated with the encoding plasmids via the intradermal route, and the IgG1 and IgG2a levels were used to determine the immune responses. These results show that although the immunized groups did not carry a high level of neutralizing antibodies, the plasmids encoding the VP1/IL-1α, and P1-2A/IL-1α fused genes were effective in inducing an enhanced immune response

Impacts of coexisting bronchial asthma on severe exacerbations in mild-to-moderate COPD : results from a national database

Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Kyungjoo Kim for the confident statistical analyses in this work. This study was supported by a grant (2014P3300300) from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The abstract of this paper was presented at the Asian Pacific Society of Respirology 20th Congress as an oral presentation with interim findings. The poster’s abstract was published in “Poster Abstracts” in Respirology.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Lossless hybridization between photovoltaic and thermoelectric devices

The optimal hybridization of photovoltaic (PV) and thermoelectric (TE) devices has long been considered ideal for the efficient harnessing solar energy. Our hybrid approach uses full spectrum solar energy via lossless coupling between PV and TE devices while collecting waste energy from thermalization and transmission losses from PV devices. Achieving lossless coupling makes the power output from the hybrid device equal to the sum of the maximum power outputs produced separately from individual PV and TE devices. TE devices need to have low internal resistances enough to convey photo-generated currents without sacrificing the PV fill factor. Concomitantly, a large number of p-n legs are preferred to drive a high Seebeck voltage in TE. Our simple method of attaching a TE device to a PV device has greatly improved the conversion efficiency and power output of the PV device (~30% at a 15°C temperature gradient across a TE device)