Etude des événements précipitants intenses en Méditerranée : approche par la modélisation climatique régionale

Une étude de la variabilité climatique des événements méditerranéens de précipitations intenses dans le Sud-Est de la France (HPE : High Precipitation Events) est proposée au travers de l'analyse des performances du modèle de climat à aire limitée ALADIN-Climat. La sensibilité des pluies extrêmes simulées à différents paramètres de configuration du modèle est évaluée dans un cadre d'étude idéalisé ou à travers des expériences pilotées par la ré-analyse ERA-40. Les tests de sensibilité portent sur le couplage dynamique de l'atmosphère avec le modèle de mer Méditerranée NEMO-MED8, l'application d'une technique de pilotage spectral, la taille du domaine d'intégration et la résolution horizontale (passage de 50 à 12.5 km). Seule l'augmentation de la résolution conduit à une modification des précipitations extrêmes. Une étude détaillée de la valeur ajoutée ainsi apportée est alors conduite. Les résultats obtenus avec ALADIN-Climat sont ensuite comparés à ceux issus de deux méthodes de descente d'échelle statistique : la méthode de désagrégation DSCLIM (Boé et al., 2006) et la méthode de détection développée par Nuissier et al. (2011). Il s'avère que les performances d'ALADIN-Climat à 12.5 km sont plus satisfaisantes que celles de la première méthode et au moins équivalentes à celles de la seconde, d'où l'on conclut que ce modèle constitue donc un outil adéquat à l'étude de la variabilité climatique des HPE. Un scénario de changement climatique A1B est alors réalisé avec ALADIN-Climat pour la fin du XXe siècle, et différentes méthodes sont proposées pour l'analyse des résultats. Elles suggèrent un accroissement de la fréquence d'occurrence et une intensification des HPE.The climatic variability of intense rainfall events in the Mediterranean is studied using the limited area climate model ALADIN-Climate, whose ability to simulate these events in South-East France is explored. Several sensitivity studies are conducted to assess the impact of various configuration parameters on the model's skill to downscale such extreme events : coupling with a Mediterranean sea model, use of the spectral nudging technique, size of the domain of integration and horizontal resolution. These studies are either performed within the so-called Big-Brother Experiment framework or through hindcast simulations driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis. The increase of resolution (from 50 to 12.5 km) is found to be the only parameter affecting the modeling of extreme precipitation. The added value of the higher resolution on the way ALADIN-Climate simulates High Precipitation Events (HPE) in South-East France is carefully studied. Comparisons of ALADIN-Climate's skills to those of two State-of-the-art statistical methods of downscaling and detection of these events -- DSCLIM (Boé et al., 2006) and "CYPRIM" (Nuissier et al., 2011) -- show that with a resolution of 12.5 km, the model offers better results than the first method and appears to be at least as good as the second one, therefore it constitutes an appropriate numerical tool to explore the climatic variability of the HPE. A climate change scenario (A1B) is then performed with this tool for the end of the XXe century and we assess the simulated changes affecting HPE in future climate. Several methods are proposed to analyse and display the results, suggesting an increase of both the frequency and intensity of the HPE

Practices of Speculation

This volume offers innovative ways to think about speculation at a time when anticipation of catastrophe in an apocalyptic mode is the order of the day and shapes public discourse on a global scale. It maps an interdisciplinary field of investigation: the chapters interrogate hegemonic ways of shaping the present through investments in the future, while also looking at speculative practices that reveal transformative potential. The twelve contributions explore concrete instances of envisioning the open unknown and affirmative speculative potentials in history, literature, comics, computer games, mold research, ecosystem science and artistic practice

SESSION 1: CREW Seattle Presentation

ABSTRACT: Is there Still a Place in Seattle for the Single-Family Detached Housing Typology, Given the Acute Need for Affordable Housing? This expert panel will explore the intersection between existing zoning laws and well-established neighborhood patterns of development, on the one hand, and the acute need for the increased production and availability of affordable housing, in the greater Seattle area, including in and near the City of Seattle’s Central Business District, as well as other close-in employment centers, on the other hand. The genesis of this Special Topic in the Innovating the Built Environment SITIE2020 course came out of a series of articles published during the SITIE2019 course reporting on several cities throughout the U.S., including Minneapolis, MN, contemplating the elimination of single-family detached zoning from their zoning and land use codes as part of a larger strategy for ramping up affordable housing production

Inter- and intra-beach thermal variation for Green Turtle nests on Ascension Island, South Atlantic

Nest temperatures for green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting on Ascension Island, South Atlantic (7°57\u27S 14°22\u27W), were examined. Temperature probes were placed into nests on two beaches, Long Beach (26 nests) and North East Bay (8 nests). Within these beaches there was relatively little thermal variation (SD of nest temperature was 0.32°C for Long Beach and 0.30°C for North East Bay). To examine inter-beach thermal variation temperature probes were buried at 55 cm on 12 beaches. Inter-beach thermal variation was large and was related to the beach albedo with the darkest beach (albedo, 016) being 4.2°C warmer than the lightest coloured beach (albedo, 0.73)

Inter- and intra-beach thermal variation for Green Turtle nests on Ascension Island, South Atlantic

Nest temperatures for green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting on Ascension Island, South Atlantic (7°57\u27S 14°22\u27W), were examined. Temperature probes were placed into nests on two beaches, Long Beach (26 nests) and North East Bay (8 nests). Within these beaches there was relatively little thermal variation (SD of nest temperature was 0.32°C for Long Beach and 0.30°C for North East Bay). To examine inter-beach thermal variation temperature probes were buried at 55 cm on 12 beaches. Inter-beach thermal variation was large and was related to the beach albedo with the darkest beach (albedo, 016) being 4.2°C warmer than the lightest coloured beach (albedo, 0.73)

In a Silent Way: Communication between AI and improvising musicians beyond sound

Collaboration is built on trust, and establishing trust with a creative Artificial Intelligence is difficult when the decision process or internal state driving its behaviour isn't exposed. When human musicians improvise together, a number of extra-musical cues are used to augment musical communication and expose mental or emotional states which affect musical decisions and the effectiveness of the collaboration. We developed a collaborative improvising AI drummer that communicates its confidence through an emoticon-based visualisation. The AI was trained on musical performance data, as well as real-time skin conductance, of musicians improvising with professional drummers, exposing both musical and extra-musical cues to inform its generative process. Uni- and bi-directional extra-musical communication with real and false values were tested by experienced improvising musicians. Each condition was evaluated using the FSS-2 questionnaire, as a proxy for musical engagement. The results show a positive correlation between extra-musical communication of machine internal state and human musical engagement

Increase in Depression and Anxiety Among Australian Gay and Bisexual Men During COVID-19 Restrictions: Findings from a Prospective Online Cohort Study

We examined depression and anxiety prior to and during COVID-19 restrictions in Australian gay and bisexual men (GBM). In an online cohort, a COVID-19-focused survey was conducted in April 2020. During 2019 and in April 2020, 664 GBM completed the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9, measuring depression) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder Assessment (GAD-7, measuring anxiety). Increased depression and anxiety were defined as a ≥ 5 point increase on the respective scales. Mean PHQ-9 and GAD-7 scores increased between 2019 and 2020 (PHQ-9: from 5.11 in 2019 to 6.55 in 2020; GAD-7: from 3.80 in 2019 to 4.95 in 2020). The proportion of participants with moderate-severe depression (PHQ-9 ≥ 10) increased from 18.8% (n = 125) to 25.5% (n = 169), while the proportion of participants with moderate-severe anxiety (GAD-7 ≥ 10) increased from 12.7% (n = 84) to 17.3% (n = 115). Almost one-quarter of participants (n = 158, 23.8%) had increased depression; in these men, mean PHQ-9 increased from 2.49 in 2019 to 11.65 in 2020 (p < 0.001). One-in-five (20.6%) participants (n = 137) had increased anxiety; among these men, mean GAD-7 increased from 2.05 in 2019 to 10.22 in 2020 (p < 0.001). Increases were associated with concerns about job security, reduction in social and sexual connections and opportunities, and being personally concerned about COVID-19 itself. COVID-19 appeared to have a sudden and pronounced impact on depression and anxiety in Australian GBM, with a significant minority showing sharp increases. Ongoing monitoring is required to determine longer-term impacts and GBM need access to appropriate and sensitive supports both during and after the COVID-19 pandemic