data

Genotypes of the individuals, ordered by rivers and cohorts

genotypes

genotype

Observed (black line) and estimated missing water temperatures (black dotted line) using model <i>M₁</i> with 95% Bayesian credibility interval (grey area) on the Oir River in 2006.

<p>Observed (black line) and estimated missing water temperatures (black dotted line) using model <i>M₁</i> with 95% Bayesian credibility interval (grey area) on the Oir River in 2006.</p

Model selection, posterior checking and predictive performance for the two modelling approaches applied to the 3 rivers.

<p>Dev: deviance posterior mean; pD: measure of the model complexity (estimated number of parameters); DIC: Deviance Information Criterion. p-value: p-value for the posterior checking tests; RMSE: root mean square errors used to quantify the predictive performance.</p><p>Model selection, posterior checking and predictive performance for the two modelling approaches applied to the 3 rivers.</p

Linear regressions between pairwise records of air temperatures and water temperatures at small time scale (moving average over 5 days; panel C) and long time scale (moving average over 6 months; panel D).

<p>Linear regressions between pairwise records of air temperatures and water temperatures at small time scale (moving average over 5 days; panel C) and long time scale (moving average over 6 months; panel D).</p

Average temperature calculated for 6 months intervals forecasted by the modelling approaches <i>M₁</i> and <i>M₀</i> on the three rivers over 50 years under an air temperature warming scenario of 3.2°C.

<p>Posterior means are represented by solid lines for the model <i>M₁</i> and dotted lines for model <i>M₀</i>. 95% Bayesian credibility intervals correspond respectively to dark and light grey areas for models <i>M₁</i> and <i>M₀</i> respectively. Horizontal Black line: average water temperature observed over the last ten year time series.</p

Time series of the available data on the three rivers used as case studies.

<p>Time series of the available data on the three rivers used as case studies.</p

Posterior distribution of the means (<i>α</i>) and amplitudes (<i>β</i>) characterizing the time series of water temperature (WT), air temperature (AT) and water discharge (Q) on the three rivers.

<p>Solid line: posterior medians; shaded area: 95% posterior interval.</p

Posterior distributions of the parameters involved in the linear regression used to infer the time series of stream water temperatures based on time series of air temperature and discharge used as predictors.

<p>Posterior distributions of the parameters involved in the linear regression used to infer the time series of stream water temperatures based on time series of air temperature and discharge used as predictors.</p

Watersheds of the three case study rivers. x: hydrometric station; •: water temperature measurement stations.

<p>Watersheds of the three case study rivers. x: hydrometric station; •: water temperature measurement stations.</p