Multilateral Environmental Agreements up to 2050: Are They Sustainable Enough?

Today, reducing CO2 emissions is a global target which nearly all countries in the worldprioritize. Some countries have ratified up to 30 multilateral environmental agreementsregarding the atmosphere up to 2006. This number has been surging since 1989 after theratification of the Montreal Protocol. Following the findings of the inverted U-shapedEnvironmental Kuznets Curve and applying a spline model, I can show the beneficialimpact of the rising number of multilateral environmental agreements on the forecastsof CO2 emissions up to 2050. My results indicate that the number of atmosphere-relatedmultilateral environmental agreements generates good will among global cooperationefforts towards reducing CO2 emissions and therefore provides a good basis foreffective programs to stop climate change.Climate change, CO2 emissions, environmental agreements, forecasting, spline model

Global Warming Induced Water-Cycle Changes and Industrial Production – A Scenario Analysis for the Upper Danube River Basin

Using the environmental decision support system DANUBIA, we analyze the effects ofclimate change on industry and compare the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies.The observed area covers Germany and Austria up to 2025. Since the main effects ofclimate change in this region are expected to be caused through changes in the watercycle,we place a special focus on the exemplary region of the upper Danube catchmentarea. Industry is the main regional user of water resources. Water is an essential productionfactor and is used in almost every production process of a manufactured good. We applyestimates of regional production functions, based on AFiD-panel micro-data for Germany,to calibrate regional industrial production and water usage within DANUBIA. Thus, weare able to simulate region-specific effects of climate change and the impact of socialscenarios using an unprecedented model of reciprocal influences of a huge network ofinterdisciplinary research areas. Simulation results show wide regional differences inproduction site reactions as well as between differing scenarios. Comparing scenarios ofmoderate and serious climate change, we are able to illustrate the severe environmentaleffects in some regions and to determine considerable economic effects on regionaleconomic growth.Environmental decision support system, climate change, water-cycle, river basin management

Kurz zum Klima: Multilaterale Umweltabkommen – Multivitamine für die Welt

Jede Erweiterung eines bestehenden Umweltabkommens kann einen weiteren Schritt in Bezug auf einen verbesserten Umweltschutz bedeuten. Deshalb ist es sinnvoll, den Beitrag eines Landes am globalen Umweltschutz anhand der Anzahl seiner multilateralen Umweltabkommen zu bemessen. Vor allem die westeuropäischen Länder sind Spitzenreiter bei der Menge ihrer multinationalen Umweltabkommen.Umweltabkommen, Welt

Trade and investment liberalization as determinants of multilateral environmental agreement membership

Environmental agreements represent voluntary coalitions which mostly regulate emissions and the exhaustion of natural resources. The analysis of why and under which conditions countries (or policy makers) may be inclined toward ratifying such agreements or not has been the focus of a body of theoretical work at the interface of environmental economics and the economics of coalition games. Traditional theoretical work predicted that environmental agreements are hard to sustain due to the lacking enforceability of associated contracts and the incentive to free-ride. This hypothesis is at odds with the enormous surge of such agreements in reality over the last few decades. Recent work by Rose and Spiegel (J. Money, Credit Bank. 41:337-363, 2009) suggests that environmental agreements will be signed and are stable, because they work as a signal and help economies to get access to export (and possibly other) credits. Hence, the reason for a ratification of such agreements is their interdependence with other policies, especially ones that are related to international business. This paper sheds light on the determinants of multilateral environmental agreement (MEA) participation. In particular, we pay attention to the role of a country's international openness by means of chosen trade and investment policies for such participation. The results support the view that wealthier countries with a strong inclination towards trade and investment liberalization are more in favor of committing themselves voluntarily to environmental standards, pollution reduction, and other means of environmental protection through MEA memberships than other countries, all else equa