Multi-Centennial Response of ENSO Under Varying Atmospheric CO2

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects millions of people via global teleconnections in the form of drought and torrential rainfall that impact agriculture and food production in many countries. Yet how ENSO will respond to a warming world is uncertain and a greatly debated topic. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) reports on modeling efforts using coupled atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) to diagnose the response of ENSO in a warming world. The IPCC stresses the value of a multi-model approach so that no one model is relied on too heavily and collections of models can be aggregated in ensembles to evaluate the quality of the current state of climate models. A formal evaluation of model ensembles used in the IPCC reports also fulfills a secondary goal of determining whether climate models are collectively improving over time. Here we present a new AOGCM, GENMOM, which combines the GENESIS atmospheric GCM (Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems) and MOM (Modular Ocean Model). GENMOM simulates a realistic present-day climate and ENSO dynamics that are on par with the models used in IPCC AR4. The response of ENSO to doubling atmospheric CO2 from 355 ppmV to 710 ppmV and 1420 ppmV (hereafter denoted 1x, 2x and 4x respectively) is evaluated using long (600 year) GENMOM simulations. Higher amplitude and more frequent ENSO events are associated with global warming

Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional earth structure

Predictive modeling of submerged archaeological sites requires accurate sea-level predictions in order to reconstruct coastal paleogeography and associated geographic features that may have influenced the locations of occupation sites such as rivers and embayments. Earlier reconstructions of the paleogeography of parts of the western U.S. coast used an assumption of eustatic sea level, but this neglects the large spatial variations in relative sea level (RSL) associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and tectonics. Subsequent work using a one-dimensional (1-D) solid Earth model showed that reconstructions that accounted for GIA result in significant differences from those based on eustatic sea level. However, these analyses neglected the complex three-dimensional (3-D) solid Earth structure associated with the Cascadia subduction zone that has also strongly influenced RSL along the Oregon-Washington (OR-WA) coast, requiring that the paleogeographic reconstructions must also account for this effect. Here we use RSL predictions from a 3-D solid Earth model that have been validated by RSL data to update previous paleogeographic reconstructions of the OR-WA coast for the last 12 kyr based on a 1-D solid Earth model. The large differences in the spatial variations in RSL on the OR-WA continental shelves predicted by the 3-D model relative to eustatic and 1-D models demonstrate that accurate reconstructions of coastal paleogeography for predictive modeling of submerged archaeological sites need to account for 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure in areas of complex tectonics

Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.Keywords: PNA teleconnection, Regional downscaling, North American climate, Climate change, Coupled climate model

Thermal controls of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and invasive fishes under climate change

We combine large observed data sets and dynamically downscaled climate data to explore historic and future (2050-2069) stream temperature changes over the topographically diverse Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (elevation range=824-4017m). We link future stream temperatures with fish growth models to investigate how changing thermal regimes could influence the future distribution and persistence of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) and competing invasive species. We find that stream temperatures during the recent decade (2000-2009) surpass the anomalously warm period of the 1930s. Climate simulations indicate air temperatures will warm by 1 °C to >3 °C over the Greater Yellowstone by mid-21st century, resulting in concomitant increases in 2050-2069 peak stream temperatures and protracted periods of warming from May to September (MJJAS). Projected changes in thermal regimes during the MJJAS growing season modify the trajectories of daily growth rates at all elevations with pronounced growth during early and late summer. For high-elevation populations, we find considerable increases in fish body mass attributable both to warming of cold-water temperatures and to extended growing seasons. During peak July to August warming, mid-21st century temperatures will cause periods of increased thermal stress, rendering some low-elevation streams less suitable for YCT. The majority (80%) of sites currently inhabited by YCT, however, display minimal loss (<10%) or positive changes in total body mass by midcentury; we attribute this response to the fact that many low-elevation populations of YCT have already been extirpated by historical changes in land use and invasions of non-native species. Our results further suggest that benefits to YCT populations due to warmer stream temperatures at currently cold sites could be offset by the interspecific effects of corresponding growth of sympatric, non-native species, underscoring the importance of developing climate adaptation strategies that reduce limiting factors such as non-native species and habitat degradation.Keywords: trout, climate change, growth, non-natives, Greater Yellowston

Simulating past, present, and future changes in ENSO : a model evaluation and data-model comparison

This thesis presents the results of a formal evaluation of a new AOGCM, GENMOM, demonstrating its ability to simulate present-day climate and ENSO dynamics. The model is applied to simulate climate for the Last Glacial Maximum, deglacial, and Holocene time periods. The model output is evaluated against the best available proxy reconstructions in a detailed data-model comparison. ENSO strength is analyzed in seven paleo simulations and compared to coral and laminated lake sediment proxy records to provide an understanding of how ENSO related mechanisms varied in the past and how they vary under increased atmospheric CO₂ forced global warming. The GENMOM simulated present-day is found to be on par with three models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment and is comparable with reanalysis products (e.g, NCEP2). Atmospheric features such as the jet stream structure and major semipermanent sea level pressure centers are well simulated as is the mean planetary-scale wind structure that is needed to produce the correct position of stormtracks. Most ocean surface currents are reproduced except where they are not resolvable at T31 resolution. Overall, GENMOM captures the observed gradients and spatial distributions of annual surface temperature and precipitation and the simulations are on par with other AOGCMs. Deficiencies in the GENMOM present-day simulation include a warm bias in the surface temperature over the southern oceans, a split in the ITCZ and weaker-thanobserved overturning circulation. GENMOM produces a global temperature bias of 0.6 °C. GENMOM is demonstrated to capture ENSO dynamics similar to eight AOGCMs that were evaluated in the IPCC AR4. The Niño 3 - 4 indices have a standard deviation within 0.3 °C of the observations, indicating GENMOM is producing variability in the tropical Pacifc that is comparable to observations. GENMOM produces present-day ENSO events with an average period of 5.6 years, which is within the 2 – 7 range exhibited in the observed historical record. The mid-Holocene (6ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21ka) simulations are compared to the best available proxy reconstructions for sea surface temperature, precipitation and net moisture to ensure the simulations are plausible. This thesis finds that the model is in good agreement over broad spatial scales, with regional discrepancies between the model and proxy data. Coral and laminated lake sediment proxy records indicate mid-Holocene ENSO strength was reduced by 15 - 60%, offering a scenario in which ENSO-related components can be tested in climates different than present-day, thereby providing context for future changes in ENSO. The mid-Holocene simulations exhibit a 20% reduction of ENSO strength, caused by a precession forced enhancement of the Indian summer monsoon, which strengthened ENSO-related Bjerknes feedbacks. ENSO strength in the LGM is weakened by ~25%, which is not found to be caused by changes in equatorial Pacific dynamics but rather mean state cooling that weakens the tropical thermocline. The 2x and 4x simulations have strongly enhanced and more frequent ENSO events caused by disproportionate warming of the eastern Pacific relative to the western Pacific, which weakens the east-west Pacific surface temperature gradient, allowing larger anomalies, and hence ENSO events, to develop.Keywords: climate change, ENSO, paleoclimate, model evaluation, global climate mode

OF A CONCEPTUAL ESTIMATE

of a thesis submitted b

Ice and ocean constraints on early human migrations into North America along the Pacific coast

Founding populations of the first Americans likely occupied parts of Beringia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The timing, pathways, and modes of their southward transit remain unknown, but blockage of the interior route by North American ice sheets between ~26 and 14 cal kyr BP (ka) favors a coastal route during this period. Using models and paleoceanographic data from the North Pacific, we identify climatically favorable intervals when humans could have plausibly traversed the Cordilleran coastal corridor during the terminal Pleistocene. Model simulations suggest that northward coastal currents strengthened during the LGM and at times of enhanced freshwater input, making southward transit by boat more difficult. Repeated Cordilleran glacial-calving events would have further challenged coastal transit on land and at sea. Following these events, ice-free coastal areas opened and seasonal sea ice was present along the Alaskan margin until at least 15 ka. Given evidence for humans south of the ice sheets by 16 ka and possibly earlier, we posit that early people may have taken advantage of winter sea ice that connected islands and coastal refugia. Marine ice-edge habitats offer a rich food supply and traversing coastal sea ice could have mitigated the difficulty of traveling southward in watercraft or on land over glaciers. We identify 24.5 to 22 ka and 16.4 to 14.8 ka as environmentally favorable time periods for coastal migration, when climate conditions provided both winter sea ice and ice-free summer conditions that facilitated year-round marine resource diversity and multiple modes of mobility along the North Pacific coast