Marking NBER recessions with state data

Recessions ; Economic conditions

Oil prices in the Third District states

Petroleum products - Prices

The Value of Deregulating Over-The-Counter Options

Hedgers located far from organized commodity exchanges suffer the mismatch between their local prices and exchange prices. Futures and options traded on the exchange may still be valuable to distant hedgers but only to the extent that basis risk is small. Forward contracting allows hedgers to manage risk using a local delivery price, but the CFTC has long banned the sale off-exchange options, limiting the opportunities available to hedgers. Recently, Agricultural Trade Options (ATOs) have been introduced as over-the-counter option products designed specifically for hedgers. To date, ATOs have found little interest from potential sellers, but the potential demand for these options may be substantial. This paper describes and quantifies the demand for corn ATOs by dairy farms in Southeastern Pennsylvania and estimates the value these farms might place on options contracts offered locally.Marketing,

General relativistic neutrino transport using spectral methods

We present a new code, Lorene's Ghost (for Lorene's gravitational handling of spectral transport) developed to treat the problem of neutrino transport in supernovae with the use of spectral methods. First, we derive the expression for the nonrelativistic Liouville operator in doubly spherical coordinates (r, theta, phi, epsilon, Theta, Phi)$, and further its general relativistic counterpart. We use the 3 + 1 formalism with the conformally flat approximation for the spatial metric, to express the Liouville operator in the Eulerian frame. Our formulation does not use any approximations when dealing with the angular arguments (theta, phi, Theta, Phi), and is fully energy-dependent. This approach is implemented in a spherical shell, using either Chebyshev polynomials or Fourier series as decomposition bases. It is here restricted to simplified collision terms (isoenergetic scattering) and to the case of a static fluid. We finish this paper by presenting test results using basic configurations, including general relativistic ones in the Schwarzschild metric, in order to demonstrate the convergence properties, the conservation of particle number and correct treatment of some general-relativistic effects of our code. The use of spectral methods enables to run our test cases in a six-dimensional setting on a single processor.Comment: match published versio

‘Buried Beneath the Waves’: Using GIS to Examine the Physical and Social Impact of a Historical Flood

Natural disasters such as floods can periodically disturb and destroy the built and social fabric of communities. Despite their importance, specific ramifications of natural disasters can be overlooked in local histories due to a paucity of data. In this article we bring together several disparate sources of data within a historical geographic information system (HGIS) to study certain physical and social details of the flood which devastated the Town of London West, Canada on 11 July 1883. The integration of historical and contemporary data sources allow for the construction of a three-dimensional model of where the flood likely occurred. With the location of the flood determined, it is possible to discern which residents were impacted and the legacy of the disaster on the community. This study demonstrates how digital technologies such as GIS can help provide a richer understanding of urban and environmental history

Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation

Two rationales offered for policymakers' focus on core measures of inflation as a guide to underlying inflation are that core inflation omits food and energy prices, which are thought to be more volatile than other components, and that core inflation is thought to be a better predictor of total inflation over time horizons of import to policymakers. The authors' investigation finds little support for either rationale. They find that food and energy prices are not the most volatile components of inflation and that depending on which inflation measure is used, core inflation is not necessarily the best predictor of total inflation. However, they do find that combining CPI and PCE inflation measures can lead to statistically significant more accurate forecasts of each inflation measure, suggesting that each measure includes independent information that can be exploited to yield better forecasts.Inflation (Finance)

Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation

Policymakers tend to focus on core inflation measures because they are thought to be better predictors of total inflation over time horizons of import to policymakers. The authors find little support for this assumption. While some measures of core inflation are less volatile than total inflation, core inflation is not necessarily the best predictor of total inflation. The relative forecasting performance of models using core inflation and those using only total inflation depends on the inflation measure and time horizon of the forecast. Unlike previous studies, the authors provide a measure of the statistical significance of the difference in forecast errors. ; Supersedes Working Paper 08-9.Inflation (Finance)

Communication, Machines & Human Augmentics

This essay reformulates the question of human augmentation as a problem of advanced human-machine communication, theorizing that such communication implies robust artificial intelligence and necessitates understanding the relational role new technologies play in human-machine communication. We focus on the questions, “When do electronic tools cease to be ‘simply’ tools, and become meaningfully part of ourselves,” and, “When might we think of these tools as augmenting our selves, rather than simply amplifying our capabilities?” These questions, already important to the medical and rehabilitative fields, loom larger with increasing commodification of pervasive augmentation technologies, and indicate the verge on which human-machine communication now finds itself. Through analyses of human and machine agency, mediated through a theory of close human-machine communication, we argue that the critical element in discussions of human-machine communication is an increase in sense of agency, extending the traditional human-computer interface dictum to provide an internal locus of control

Altered brain mechanisms of emotion processing in pre-manifest Huntington's disease

Huntington's disease is an inherited neurodegenerative disease that causes motor, cognitive and psychiatric impairment, including an early decline in ability to recognize emotional states in others. The pathophysiology underlying the earliest manifestations of the disease is not fully understood; the objective of our study was to clarify this. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate changes in brain mechanisms of emotion recognition in pre-manifest carriers of the abnormal Huntington's disease gene (subjects with pre-manifest Huntington's disease): 16 subjects with pre-manifest Huntington's disease and 14 control subjects underwent 1.5 tesla magnetic resonance scanning while viewing pictures of facial expressions from the Ekman and Friesen series. Disgust, anger and happiness were chosen as emotions of interest. Disgust is the emotion in which recognition deficits have most commonly been detected in Huntington's disease; anger is the emotion in which impaired recognition was detected in the largest behavioural study of emotion recognition in pre-manifest Huntington's disease to date; and happiness is a positive emotion to contrast with disgust and anger. Ekman facial expressions were also used to quantify emotion recognition accuracy outside the scanner and structural magnetic resonance imaging with voxel-based morphometry was used to assess the relationship between emotion recognition accuracy and regional grey matter volume. Emotion processing in pre-manifest Huntington's disease was associated with reduced neural activity for all three emotions in partially separable functional networks. Furthermore, the Huntington's disease-associated modulation of disgust and happiness processing was negatively correlated with genetic markers of pre-manifest disease progression in distributed, largely extrastriatal networks. The modulated disgust network included insulae, cingulate cortices, pre- and postcentral gyri, precunei, cunei, bilateral putamena, right pallidum, right thalamus, cerebellum, middle frontal, middle occipital, right superior and left inferior temporal gyri, and left superior parietal lobule. The modulated happiness network included postcentral gyri, left caudate, right cingulate cortex, right superior and inferior parietal lobules, and right superior frontal, middle temporal, middle occipital and precentral gyri. These effects were not driven merely by striatal dysfunction. We did not find equivalent associations between brain structure and emotion recognition, and the pre-manifest Huntington's disease cohort did not have a behavioural deficit in out-of-scanner emotion recognition relative to controls. In addition, we found increased neural activity in the pre-manifest subjects in response to all three emotions in frontal regions, predominantly in the middle frontal gyri. Overall, these findings suggest that pathophysiological effects of Huntington's disease may precede the development of overt clinical symptoms and detectable cerebral atroph