Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts

Analysts' earnings forecasts are influenced by their desire to win investment banking clients. We hypothesize that the equity bull market of the 1990s, along with the boom in investment banking business, exacerbated analysts' conflict of interest and their incentives to adjust strategically forecasts to avoid earnings disappointments. We document shifts in the distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non-negative surprises. Further confirmation is based on subsamples where conflicts of interest are more pronounced, including growth stocks and stocks with consecutive non-negative surprises; however shifts are less notable in international markets.

The Risk and Return from Factors

The ability to identify which factors best capture systematic return covariation is central to applications of multifactor pricing models. This paper uses a common data set to evaluate the performance of various proposed factors in capturing return comovements. Factors associated with the market, size, past return, book-to-market and dividend yield help explain return comovement on an out-of-sample basis (although they are not necessarily associated with large premiums in average returns). Except for the default premium and the term premium, macroeconomic factors perform poorly. We document regularities in the behavior of the more important factors, and confirm their influence in the Japanese and U.K. markets as well.

How is Death Penalty Used in China?

Strike hard Campaigns. The Views of the People and of the Elite. Comments on the interplay between penal populism, leadership from the front and human rights. To what extent are hard strike campaigns formed as penal populism in the provinces or as a result of leadership from the front centrally. The hard strike campaigns in the future. (Preliminary Symposium Program for The first Oslo international Symposium on Death penalty in Asia)published_or_final_versio

Experimental and meta-analytic evidence that source variability of misinformation does not increase eyewitness suggestibility independently of repetition of misinformation

Considerable evidence has shown that repeating the same misinformation increases its influence (i.e., repetition effects). However, very little research has examined whether having multiple witnesses present misinformation relative to one witness (i.e., source variability) increases the influence of misinformation. In two experiments, we orthogonally manipulated repetition and source variability. Experiment 1 used written interview transcripts to deliver misinformation and showed that repetition increased eyewitness suggestibility, but source variability did not. In Experiment 2, we increased source saliency by delivering the misinformation to participants via videos instead of written interviews, such that each witness was visibly and audibly distinct. Despite this stronger manipulation, there was no effect of source variability in Experiment 2. In addition, we reported a meta-analysis (k = 19) for the repeated misinformation effect and a small-scale meta-analysis (k = 8) for the source variability effect. Results from these meta-analyses were consistent with the results of our individual experiments. Altogether, our results suggest that participants respond based on retrieval fluency rather than source-specifying information

The Great Observatories All-Sky LIRG Survey: Herschel Image Atlas and Aperture Photometry

Far-infrared (FIR) images and photometry are presented for 201 Luminous and Ultraluminous Infrared Galaxies [LIRGs: log$(L_{\rm IR}/L_\odot) = 11.00 - 11.99$, ULIRGs: log$(L_{\rm IR}/L_\odot) = 12.00 - 12.99$], in the Great Observatories All-Sky LIRG Survey (GOALS) based on observations with the $Herschel$ $Space$ $Observatory$ Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer (PACS) and the Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE) instruments. The image atlas displays each GOALS target in the three PACS bands (70, 100, and 160 $\mu$m) and the three SPIRE bands (250, 350, and 500 $\mu$m), optimized to reveal structures at both high and low surface brightness levels, with images scaled to simplify comparison of structures in the same physical areas of $\sim$$100\times100$ kpc$^2$. Flux densities of companion galaxies in merging systems are provided where possible, depending on their angular separation and the spatial resolution in each passband, along with integrated system fluxes (sum of components). This dataset constitutes the imaging and photometric component of the GOALS Herschel OT1 observing program, and is complementary to atlases presented for the Hubble Space Telescope (Evans et al. 2017, in prep.), Spitzer Space Telescope (Mazzarella et al. 2017, in prep.), and Chandra X-ray Observatory (Iwasawa et al. 2011, 2017, in prep.). Collectively these data will enable a wide range of detailed studies of AGN and starburst activity within the most luminous infrared galaxies in the local Universe.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJS, 270 pages, 216 figures, 4 table

The topography of multiple drug use among adolescent Australians: findings from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey

Introduction and aims: Despite evidence that many Australian adolescents have considerable experience with various drug types, little is known about the extent to which adolescents use multiple substances. The aim of this study was to examine the degree of clustering of drug types within individuals, and the extent to which demographic and psychosocial predictors are related to cluster membership

Hedgehog pathway dysregulation contributes to the pathogenesis of human gastrointestinal stromal tumors via GLI-mediated activation of KIT expression.

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) arise within the interstitial cell of Cajal (ICC) lineage due to activating KIT/PDGFRA mutations. Both ICC and GIST possess primary cilia (PC), which coordinate PDGFRA and Hedgehog signaling, regulators of gastrointestinal mesenchymal development. Therefore, we hypothesized that Hedgehog signaling may be altered in human GIST and controls KIT expression. Quantitative RT-PCR, microarrays, and next generation sequencing were used to describe Hedgehog/PC-related genes in purified human ICC and GIST. Genetic and pharmacologic approaches were employed to investigate the effects of GLI manipulation on KIT expression and GIST cell viability. We report that Hedgehog pathway and PC components are expressed in ICC and GIST and subject to dysregulation during GIST oncogenesis, irrespective of KIT/PDGFRA mutation status. Using genomic profiling, 10.2% of 186 GIST studied had potentially deleterious genomic alterations in 5 Hedgehog-related genes analyzed, including in the PTCH1 tumor suppressor (1.6%). Expression of the predominantly repressive GLI isoform, GLI3, was inversely correlated with KIT mRNA levels in GIST cells and non-KIT/non-PDGFRA mutant GIST. Overexpression of the 83-kDa repressive form of GLI3 or small interfering RNA-mediated knockdown of the activating isoforms GLI1/2 reduced KIT mRNA. Treatment with GLI1/2 inhibitors, including arsenic trioxide, significantly increased GLI3 binding to the KIT promoter, decreased KIT expression, and reduced viability in imatinib-sensitive and imatinib-resistant GIST cells. These data offer new evidence that genes necessary for Hedgehog signaling and PC function in ICC are dysregulated in GIST. Hedgehog signaling activates KIT expression irrespective of mutation status, offering a novel approach to treat imatinib-resistant GIST