Temporal Trends in Stroke Incidence over Time by Sex and Age in the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study

Background and Purpose- Sex differences in stroke incidence over time were previously reported from the GCNKSS (Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study). We aimed to determine whether these differences continued through 2015 and whether they were driven by particular age groups. Methods- Within the GCNKSS population of 1.3 million, incident (first ever) strokes among residents ≥20 years of age were ascertained at all local hospitals during 5 periods: July 1993 to June 1994 and calendar years 1999, 2005, 2010, and 2015. Out-of-hospital cases were sampled. Sex-specific incidence rates per 100 000 were adjusted for age and race and standardized to the 2010 US Census. Trends over time by sex were compared (overall and age stratified). Sex-specific case fatality rates were also reported. Bonferroni corrections were applied for multiple comparisons. Results- Over the 5 study periods, there were 9733 incident strokes (56.3% women). For women, there were 229 (95% CI, 215-242) per 100 000 incident strokes in 1993/1994 and 174 (95% CI, 163-185) in 2015 (P<0.05), compared with 282 (95% CI, 263-301) in 1993/1994 to 211 (95% CI, 198-225) in 2015 (P<0.05) in men. Incidence rates decreased between the first and last study periods in both sexes for IS but not for intracerebral hemorrhage or subarachnoid hemorrhage. Significant decreases in stroke incidence occurred between the first and last study periods for both sexes in the 65- to 84-year age group and men only in the ≥85-year age group; stroke incidence increased for men only in the 20- to 44-year age group. Conclusions- Overall stroke incidence decreased from the early 1990s to 2015 for both sexes. Future studies should continue close surveillance of sex differences in the 20- to 44-year and ≥85-year age groups, and future stroke prevention strategies should target strokes in the young- and middle-age groups, as well as intracerebral hemorrhage

Fixed Compared With Autoregulation-Oriented Blood Pressure Thresholds After Mechanical Thrombectomy for Ischemic Stroke.

Background and Purpose- Loss of cerebral autoregulation in the acute phase of ischemic stroke leaves patients vulnerable to blood pressure (BP) changes. Effective BP management after endovascular thrombectomy may protect the brain from hypoperfusion or hyperperfusion. In this observational study, we compared personalized, autoregulation-based BP targets to static systolic BP thresholds. Methods- We prospectively enrolled 90 patients undergoing endovascular thrombectomy for stroke. Autoregulatory function was continuously measured by interrogating changes in near-infrared spectroscopy-derived tissue oxygenation (a cerebral blood flow surrogate) in response to changes in mean arterial pressure. The resulting autoregulatory index was used to trend the BP range at which autoregulation was most preserved. Percent time that mean arterial pressure exceeded the upper limit of autoregulation or decreased below the lower limit of autoregulation was calculated for each patient. Time above fixed systolic BP thresholds was computed in a similar fashion. Functional outcome was measured with the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days. Results- Personalized limits of autoregulation were successfully computed in all 90 patients (age 71.6±16.2, 47% female, mean National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale 13.9±5.7, monitoring time 28.0±18.4 hours). Percent time with mean arterial pressure above the upper limit of autoregulation associated with worse 90-day outcomes (odds ratio per 10% 1.84 [95% CI, 1.3-2.7] P=0.002), and patients with hemorrhagic transformation spent more time above the upper limit of autoregulation (10.9% versus 16.0%, P=0.042). Although there appeared to be a nonsignificant trend towards worse outcome with increasing time above systolic BP thresholds of 140 mm Hg and 160 mm Hg, the effect sizes were smaller compared with the personalized approach. Conclusions- Noninvasive determination of personalized BP thresholds for stroke patients is feasible. Deviation from these limits may increase risk of further brain injury and poor functional outcome. This approach may present a better strategy compared with the classical approach of maintaining systolic BP below a predetermined value, though a randomized trial is needed to determine the optimal approach for hemodynamic management

Deriving Place of Residence, Modified Rankin Scale, and EuroQol-5D Scores from the Medical Record for Stroke Survivors

Introduction: We sought to determine the feasibility and validity of estimating post-stroke outcomes using information available in the electronic medical record (EMR) through comparison with outcomes obtained from telephone interviews. Methods: The Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study is a retrospective population-based epidemiology study that ascertains hospitalized strokes in the study region. As a sub-study, we identified all ischemic stroke patients who presented to a system of 4 hospitals during the study period 1/1/2015–12/31/2015 and were discharged alive. Enrolled subjects (or proxies for cognitively-disabled patients) were contacted by telephone at 3 and 6 months post-stroke to determine current place of residence and two functional outcomes—the modified Rankin Score (mRS) and the EuroQol (EQ-5D). Concurrently, the lead study coordinator, blinded to the telephone assessment outcomes, reviewed all available EMRs to estimate outcome status. Agreement between outcomes estimated from the EMR with “gold-standard” data obtained from telephone interviews was analyzed using the kappa statistic or interclass correlation (ICC), as appropriate. For each outcome, EMR-determined results were evaluated for added value beyond the information readily available from the stroke hospital stay. Results: Of 381 ischemic strokes identified, 294 (median [IQR] age 70 [60–79] years, 4% black, 52% female) were interviewed post-stroke. Agreement between EMR and telephone for 3-month residence was very good (kappa=0.84, 95% CI 0.74–0.94), good for mRS (weighted kappa=0.75, 95% CI 0.70–0.80), and good for EQ-5D (ICC=0.74, 95% CI 0.68–0.79). Similar results were observed at 6 months post stroke. At both 3 and 6 months post stroke, EMR-determined outcomes added value in predicting the gold standard telephone results beyond the information available from the stroke hospitalization; the added fraction of new information ranged from 0.25 to 0.59. Conclusions: Determining place of residence, mRS, and EQ-5D outcomes derived from information recorded in the EMR post-stroke, without patient contact, is feasible and has good agreement with data obtained from direct contact. However, we note that the level of agreement for mRS and EQ-5D was higher for proxy interviews and that the EMR often reflects health care providers’ judgments that tend to overestimate disability and underestimate quality of life

Racial Disparities in Stroke Recurrence: A Population-Based Study

Background and objective: There are significant racial disparities in stroke in the United States, with Black individuals having a higher risk of incident stroke even when adjusted for traditional stroke risk factors. It is unknown whether Black individuals are also at a higher risk of recurrent stroke. Methods: Over an 18-month period spanning 2014-2015, we ascertained index stroke cases within the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky population of 1.3 million. We then followed up all patients for 3 years and determined the risk of recurrence. Multivariable survival analysis was performed to determine the effect of Black race on recurrence. Results: There were 3,816 patients with index stroke/TIA events in our study period, and 476 patients had a recurrent event within 3 years. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of 3-year recurrence rate was 15.4%. Age-adjusted and sex-adjusted stroke recurrence rate was higher in Black individuals (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.1-1.6; p = 0.003); however, when adjusted for traditional stroke risk factors including hypertension, diabetes, smoking status, age, and left ventricular hypertrophy, the association between Black race and recurrence was significantly attenuated and became nonsignificant (HR 1.1, 95% CI 0.9-1.36, p = 0.32). At younger ages, Black race was more strongly associated with recurrence, and this effect may not be fully attenuated by traditional stroke risk factors. Discussion: Recurrent stroke was more common among Black individuals, but the magnitude of the racial difference was substantially attenuated and became nonsignificant when adjusted for traditional stroke risk factors. Interventions targeting these risk factors could reduce disparities in stroke recurrence

Health Factors Associated With Development and Severity of Poststroke Dysphagia: An Epidemiological Investigation

Background Dysphagia after stroke is common and can impact morbidity and death. The purpose of this population‐based study was to determine specific epidemiological and health risk factors that impact development of dysphagia after acute stroke. Methods and Results Ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke cases from 2010 and 2015 were identified via chart review from the GCNKSS (Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study), a representative sample of ≈1.3 million adults from southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Dysphagia status was determined on the basis of clinical assessments and necessity for alternative access to nutrition via nasogastric or percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube placement. Comparisons between patients with and without dysphagia were made to determine differences in baseline characteristics and premorbid conditions. Multivariable logistic regression determined factors associated with increased risk of dysphagia. Dysphagia status was ascertained from 4139 cases (1709 with dysphagia). Logistic regression showed that increased age, Black race, higher National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission, having a hemorrhagic stroke (versus infarct), and right hemispheric stroke increased the risk of developing dysphagia after stroke. Factors associated with reduced risk included history of high cholesterol, lower prestroke modified Rankin Scale score, and white matter disease. Conclusions This study replicated previous findings of variables associated with dysphagia (older age, worse stroke, right‐sided hemorrhagic lesions), whereas other variables identified were without clear biological rationale (eg, Black race, history of high cholesterol, and presence of white matter disease) and should be investigated in future studies to determine biological relevance and potential influence in stroke recovery

Projections of Endovascular Therapy-Eligible Patients With Stroke for the US Population.

BACKGROUND As stroke endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) treatment indications expand, understanding population-based EVT eligibility becomes critical for resource planning. We aimed to project current and future population-based EVT eligibility in the United States. METHODS We conducted a post hoc analysis of the physician-adjudicated GCNKSS (Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study; 2015 epoch), a population-based, cross sectional, observational study of stroke incidence, treatment, and outcomes across a 5-county region. All hospitalized patients ≥18 years of age with acute ischemic stroke were ascertained using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes 430-436 and Tenth Revision codes I60-I67 and G45-G46 and extrapolated to the US adult census 2020. We determined the rate of EVT eligibility within the GCNKSS population using time from last known well to presentation (0-5 versus 5-23 hours), presenting National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and prestroke modified Rankin Scale. Both conservative and liberal estimates of prevalence of large vessel occlusion and large core were then applied based on literature review (unavailable within the 2015 GCNKSS). This eligibility was then extrapolated to the 2020 US population. RESULTS Of the 1 057 183 adults within GCNKSS in 2015, 2741 had an ischemic stroke and 2176 had data available for analysis. We calculated that 8659 to 17 219 patients (conservative to liberal) meet the current guideline-recommended EVT criteria (nonlarge core, no prestroke disability, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥6) in the United States. Estimates (conservative to liberal) for expanded EVT eligibility subpopulations include (1) 5316 to 10 635 by large core; (2) 10 635 to 21 270 by mild presenting deficits with low National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score; (3) 13 572 to 27 089 by higher prestroke disability; and (4) 7039 to 14 180 by >1 criteria. These expanded eligibility subpopulations amount to 36 562 to 73 174 patients. CONCLUSIONS An estimated 8659 to 17 219 adult patients in the United States met strict EVT eligibility criteria in 2020. A 4-fold increase in population-based EVT eligibility can be anticipated with incremental adoption of recent or future positive trials. US stroke systems need to be rapidly optimized to handle all EVT-eligible patients with stroke