682 research outputs found

    Forecasting Design Day Demand Using Extremal Quantile Regression

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    Extreme events occur rarely, making them difficult to predict. Extreme cold events strain natural gas systems to their limits. Natural gas distribution companies need to be prepared to satisfy demand on any given day that is at or warmer than an extreme cold threshold. The hypothetical day with temperature at this threshold is called the Design Day. To guarantee Design Day demand is satisfied, distribution companies need to determine the demand that is unlikely to be exceeded on the Design Day. We approach determining this demand as an extremal quantile regression problem. We review current methods for extremal quantile regression. We implement a quantile forecast to estimate the demand that has a minimal chance of being exceeded on the design day. We show extremal quantile regression to be more reliable than direct quantile estimation. We discuss the difficult task of evaluating a probabilistic forecast on rare events. Probabilistic forecasting is a quickly growing research topic in the field of energy forecasting. Our paper contributes to this field in three ways. First, we forecast quantiles during extreme cold events where data is sparse. Second, we forecast extremely high quantiles that have a very low probability of being exceeded. Finally, we provide a real world scenario on which to apply these techniques

    Findings from the University of East Anglia's evaluation of the Ipswich/Suffolk multi-agency strategy on prostitution following the five murders in 2006

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    This paper provides a summary of the main findings of an evaluation of a new multi-agency Strategy set up to tackle on-street sex-working, after five prostitutes were murdered in the English county town of Ipswich. It focuses on the outcomes of the Strategy’s four objectives, including their cost-effectiveness. It also offers an insight into the lives of the women who were previously involved in street sex-working, the means by which the Strategy helped them to move towards exiting this work, and the ways in which younger people identified as being at risk of entering it might be prevented from doing so

    Relationship of Global DNA Methylation with Cardiovascular Fitness and Body Composition

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    Global DNA Methylation (GDM), an epigenomic modification has been linked to the development of Cardiovascular Disease and its risk factors. The research focus is to identify the relationship between cardiovascular fitness measurements and epigen­etic alterations specific to chronic disease states in adult subjects. Twenty-six adult human subjects were required to complete a physical activity and diet questionnaire. Each individual donated a small blood sample (600 ÎŒL) in order for us to analyze the Global DNA Methylation (GMD). Then, their body composition was evaluated by us­ing the Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA Scan) machinery. The Pearson’s “r” value was used to reveal the correlation between GDM and various variables, while t-tests were used to assess if any differences exists between high and low value groups for each variable. The Body Mass Index was significantly correlated (p-value, r value; 0.031, -.556) with GDM in females only. Individuals with high folate intake had sig­nificantly greater GDM than the low folate group (high= 3.1+-1.2%, low=2.3+-0.7, p=0.034) as determined by the diet questionnaire. No significant correlations or dif­ferences were found in males. The results conclude that as BMI increases, GDM de­creases in females. In attempts to further investigate the relationships between GDM and these variables, auxiliary research needs to be conducted with larger subject pools containing additional sedentary participants

    Design of and Development a Diamond Fly-Cutting System

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    This thesis presents a conceptual design, for a single point diamond fly-cutting system. This design is based on the performance of an existing, diamond facing lathe. The design requirements for a precision machine tool have been considered, and a deterministic design philosophy has been adopted. The error motions within the diamond facing lathe are considered as effects, generated by defined causes. These causes include geometric, kinematic and dynamic sources. Diamond turning and flycutting processes have been compared and consideration has been given to the process influences, including variations in; diamond tool geometries, cutting forces, rotational error motions and the process characteristics required for an optimal surface finish. A single point diamond facing lathe has been refurbished and the dynamic error motions of this machine tool have been analysed, using different techniques. The stiffness properties have also been investigated, which indicate how the performance of the machine tool has been affected over time and during the refurbishment process. The dynamic error motions have been used to generate a set of technical specifications, governing the design of the fly-cutting system. A design concept has been presented and optimised. This includes a fly-cutting head, with a quick release tool holder based on a kinematically located side locking clamp. A design concept for a dynamic workpiece holder has also been presented, which monitors the error motions of the machine tool and orientates the workpiece accordingly. A three pair flexure system has been simulated to orientate the workpiece. Consideration has been given to mounting the workpiece, feedback transducers and the design of the control system. This thesis has provided the initial steps in the design of a single point diamond flycutting system. A further stage of development work is required to complete a detailed design.MRe

    Theatres of the Mind A Kleinian analysis of the plays of Harold Pinter

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    For the past fifty years, critics and scholars have been searching for a critical language to explain the work of Britain’s most successful playwright, Harold Pinter. One of the richer paths of enquiry has been to analyse the plays using a psychoanalytic vocabulary. In general terms, however, most of these studies have been restricted to using a Freudian terminology. This study develops the psychoanalytic tradition of Pinter studies by applying the theories of one of Freud’s successors, Melanie Klein. The study has been undertaken through an analysis of play texts to develop a synthesis of Kleinian theory and Pinter. Klein’s work develops Freudianism by exploring the primitive building blocks of the infant’s mind. Chapter 1 introduces the thesis argument and gives a detailed introduction to Pinter’s background and his work as writer. Chapter 2 provides an examination of the fundamental elements of Klein’s theories in the context of Freud’s own ideas. Chapter 3 uses Klein’s theory of dreams to analyse Pinter’s earlier work and argues that the plays explore complex unconscious phantasies of relations to bad and good objects. A further contribution is made to psychoanalytic vocabulary with the introduction of the notion of the split object. Chapter 4 explores the manic- depressive aspects of The Dwarfs, whilst Chapter 5 is a close reading that argues that The Caretaker can be read through the lens of the characters’ anxious attempt to repair ‘objects’ damaged in phantasy. Chapter 6 provides a detailed Kleinian exegesis of The Homecoming and then Pinter’s later work in considered: his memory plays, and his work after 1980, including his overtly political work and his last plays including Ashes to Ashes and Celebration. In this chapters Kleinian lexis is employed to get at the unconscious undercurrents of the plays. Throughout, along with a specific emphasis on the characters’ unconscious anxieties and relations to objects, the relationship between society, the historical moment and the text are considered

    A more palatable alternative to oral rehydration therapy for kids

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    Review of: Freedman SB, Willan AR, Boutis K, et al. Effect of dilute apple juice and preferred fluids vs electrolyte maintenance solution on treatment failure among children with mild gastroenteritis: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA. 2016;315:1966-1974.Stength of recommendation: B: Based on a single, good quality randomized controlled trial.A more palatable alternative to oral rehydration therapy for kids. Parents no longer need to struggle to get their kids to drink electrolyte solutions during episodes of mild gastroenteritis; apple juice works just as well. Practice changer: Recommend that parents give half-strength apple juice to children greater than or equal to 24 months of age who are minimally dehydrated following a case of simple viral gastroenteritis. The juice reduces the need for further interventions better than oral hydration therapy

    Solar Decathlon Controls

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