Forecasting Inflation: the Relevance of Higher Moments

We provide evidence that higher moments of the relative price distribution improve out-of-sample forecasts of inflation. Further, we show how theoretically consistent higher moments can be calculated by expanding the seminal work by Theil (1967). Results presented here are of direct relevance to monetary authorities, policy analysts and academic economistsrelative price distribution, higher moments, out-of-sample inflation forecasting

Vol. 7, No. 2

Contents: Police and Fire Interest Arbitration in Illinois, by Thomas F. Sonneborn Trends in Illinois Interest Arbitration, Carl S. Tominberg, Jane E. Shaffer Recent Developments, by the Student Editorial Board Further Referenceshttps://scholarship.kentlaw.iit.edu/iperr/1004/thumbnail.jp

Vol. 7, No. 2

Contents: Police and Fire Interest Arbitration in Illinois, by Thomas F. Sonneborn Trends in Illinois Interest Arbitration, Carl S. Tominberg, Jane E. Shaffer Recent Developments, by the Student Editorial Board Further Referenceshttps://scholarship.kentlaw.iit.edu/iperr/1004/thumbnail.jp

An exploration of primary school teachers’ maths anxiety using interpretative phenomenological analysis

Primary school teachers are important in children’s learning of mathematics, and maths anxiety development has been partly attributed to children’s classroom experiences (Das & Das, 2013). Maths anxiety was explored in UK primary school teachers, with a view to understanding its development and impact. Data from four semi-structured individual interviews were analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA), which facilitates a deeper knowledge of individuals’ personal experience. Three key themes emerged: “experiencing the psychological consequences of maths anxiety”, “social influences” and “the consequences of experiencing maths anxiety as a teaching professional”. The findings contribute to our understanding of the influence of maths anxiety on teachers and teaching practices.N/

Wolves facilitate the recovery of browse-sensitive understory herbs in Wisconsin forests

We asked whether wolf re-colonization would facilitate increased growth and reproduction of three browse-sensitive plant species. We hypothesized plant size and the proportion of reproductive individuals would be lowest in areas with no wolves, intermediate where wolves had been present for 4-6 years, and highest where wolves had been present for 12-13 years. Two plant species exhibited significantly greater reproduction where wolves were present for 12-13 years. Mean leaf size of indicator plants was significantly greater in areas where wolves were present for 12-13 years, as compared with that in areas where wolves were not present or were present for 4-6 years, but the effect size appears small. While the return of wolves to this region is likely to benefit browse-sensitive plant species, our findings suggest that wolf recovery will not generate atrophic cascade of sufficient magnitude to halt or reverse the loss of plant diversity in the Great Lakes region in the near term

Insulin-signalling dysregulation and inflammation is programmed trans-generationally in a female rat model of poor maternal nutrition.

Developmental programming phenotypes can be recapitulated in subsequent generations not directly exposed to the initial suboptimal intrauterine environment. A maternal low-protein diet during pregnancy and postnatal catch-up growth ('recuperated') alters insulin signaling and inflammation in rat offspring (F1-generation). We aimed to establish if this phenotype is also present in F2-generation females. Insulin-receptor-substrate-1 protein expression was decreased in para-ovarian adipose tissue at 3 months in offspring exposed to a grand-maternal low-protein diet (F2-recuperated), vs. F2-control animals (p < 0.05). There was no effect of grand-maternal diet upon Insulin-receptor-substrate-1 mRNA. Protein-kinase C-zeta protein levels were increased at 3 and 6 months in F2-recuperated animals (p < 0.01 at both ages). Phosphorylated-Aktser473 levels were decreased in F2-recuperated animals (p < 0.001). Interleukin-1β protein levels were increased at 3 (p < 0.01) and (p < 0.001) 6 months in F2-recuperated animals. Vastus-lateralis insulin-receptor-β protein expression (p < 0.001) and pAktser473 (p < 0.01) were increased at 3 months in F2-recuperated animals compared to controls. At 6 months, PAktser473 was lower in F2-recuperated animals (p < 0.001). Aspects of insulin signalling dysregulation and inflammation present in offspring of low-protein fed dams can be transmitted to subsequent generations without further exposure to a suboptimal maternal diet. These findings contribute to our understanding of insulin-resistance in grandchildren of sub-optimally nourished individuals during pregnancy

The Infrared Properties of Hickson Compact Groups

Compact groups of galaxies provide a unique environment to study the mechanisms by which star formation occurs amid continuous gravitational encounters. We present 2MASS (JHK), Spitzer IRAC (3.5-8 micron) and MIPS (24 micron) observations of a sample of twelve Hickson Compact Groups (HCGs 2, 7, 16, 19, 22, 31, 42, 48, 59, 61, 62, and 90) that includes a total of 45 galaxies. The near-infrared colors of the sample galaxies are largely consistent with being dominated by slightly reddened normal stellar populations. Galaxies that have the most significant PAH and/or hot dust emission (as inferred from excess 8 micron flux) also tend to have larger amounts of extinction and/or K-band excess and stronger 24 micron emission, all of which suggest ongoing star formation activity. We separate the twelve HCGs in our sample into three types based on the ratio of the group HI mass to dynamical mass. We find evidence that galaxies in the most gas-rich groups tend to be the most actively star forming. Galaxies in the most gas-poor groups tend to be tightly clustered around a narrow range in colors consistent with the integrated light from a normal stellar population. We interpret these trends as indicating that galaxies in gas-rich groups experience star formation and/or nuclear actively until their neutral gas consumed, stripped, or ionized. The galaxies in this sample exhibit a ``gap'' between gas-rich and gas-poor groups in infrared color space that is sparsely populated and not seen in the Spitzer First Look Survey sample. This gap may suggest a rapid evolution of galaxy properties in response to dynamical effects. These results suggest that the global properties of the groups and the local properties of the galaxies are connected.Comment: 34 pages, 26 figures, accepted for publication in AJ, higher quality images available in publicatio

A participatory approach to variety trials for organic systems

A participatory research methodology was used to compare the performance of UK wheat varieties under organic conditions. Plots of three breadmaking winter wheat varieties (Hereward, Solstice and Xi19) and a mixture (1:1:1) of the varieties were grown at 19 UK farms in two seasons (2003/04 and 2004/05). Meas-urements were taken of growth habit, yield and grain quality. Grain yields in both seasons showed significant site by variety interactions, although the variation among sites was greater than among varieties in both instances. Wheat grown at Western sites was significantly shorter and higher-yielding than that grown at Eastern sites in 2003/04 but significantly taller in 2004/05. As with grain yield, greater variation among site than variety was found in the Hagberg Falling Number and protein concentra-tion results in both seasons. The results from the two years of trials illustrate the variability of organic systems and the difficulty in selecting a single variety suitable for organic farms

A Lacustrine Carbonate Record of Holocene Seasonality and Climate

Annually laminated (varved) Holocene sediments from Derby Lake, Michigan, display variations in endogenic calcite abundance refl ecting a long-term (millennial-scale) decrease in burial punctuated with frequent short-term (decadal-scale) oscillations due to carbonate dissolution. Since 6000 cal yr B.P., sediment carbonate abundance has followed a decreasing trend while organic-carbon abundance has increased. The correlation between organic-carbon abundance and the sum of March-April-October-November insolation has an r2 value of 0.58. We interpret these trends to represent a precession-driven lengthening of the Holocene growing season that has reduced calcite burial by enhancing net annual organic-matter production and associated calcite dissolution. Correlations with regional paleoclimate records suggest that changes in temperature and moisture balance have impacted the distribution of short-term oscillations in carbonate and organic-matter abundance superimposed on the precession-driven trends

A population-based study of communicative participation in preschool children with speech-language impairments

Aim. To develop statistical models of preschoolers’ communicative participation development and explore variations by level of function. Methods. This was a secondary analysis of data from a longitudinal study of preschoolers with speech and language delays (N = 46,872, M age = 41.76, SD age = 11.92; 67% male) accessing publicly-funded services in Ontario Canada. Two measures were used: Focus on the Outcomes of Communication Under Six (FOCUS), measuring changes in communicative participation skills, and the Communication Function Classification System (CFCS), classifying communication function into one of five levels. We used mixed effects modeling to fit growth curves for each CFCS level. Models allowed for variation in initial FOCUS scores at 18 months, rate of growth with age, and rate of acceleration/deceleration with age. Results. Starting FOCUS score (18 months) varied inversely with CFCS level at entry to the program. Growth was initially rapid and then levelled off for children in levels I-III. Growth was less rapid for children in level IV, but levelled off, and was slow but continual for children in level V. Interpretation. This work can help us to move beyond traditional impairment-based thinking and shows that children can make meaningful communicative changes regardless of their function