A Competing-Risk Approach for Modeling Length of Stay in Severe Malaria Patients in South-East Asia and the Implications for Planning of Hospital Services.

Background: Management of severe malaria with limited resources requires comprehensive planning. Expected length of stay (LOS) and the factors influencing it are useful in the planning and optimisation of service delivery. Methods: A secondary, competing-risk approach to survival analysis was performed for 1217 adult severe malaria patients from the South-East Asia Quinine Artesunate Malaria Trial. Results: Twenty percent of patients died; 95.4% within 7 days compared to 70.3% of those who were discharged. Median time to discharge was 6 days. Compared to quinine, artesunate increased discharge incidence (subdistribution-Hazard ratio, 1.24; [95% confidence interval 1.09-1.40]; P = .001) and decreased incidence of death (0.60; [0.46-0.80]; P < .001). Low Glasgow coma scale (discharge, 1.08 [1.06-1.11], P < .001; death, 0.85 [0.82-0.89], P < .001), high blood urea-nitrogen (discharge, 0.99 [0.99-0.995], P < .001; death, 1.00 [1.00-1.01], P = .012), acidotic base-excess (discharge, 1.05 [1.03-1.06], P < .001; death, 0.90 [0.88-0.93], P < .001), and development of shock (discharge, 0.25 [0.13-0.47], P < .001; death, 2.14 [1.46-3.12], P < .001), or coma (discharge, 0.46 [0.32-0.65], P < .001; death, 2.30 [1.58-3.36], P < .001) decreased cumulative incidence of discharge and increased incidence of death. Conventional Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimated cumulative incidence compared to competing-risk model. Conclusions: Clinical factors on admission and during hospitalisation influence LOS in severe malaria, presenting targets to improve health and service efficiency. Artesunate has the potential to increase LOS, which should be accounted for when planning services. In-hospital death is a competing risk for discharge; an important consideration in LOS models to reduce overestimation of risk and misrepresentation of associations

Effect of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during infancy on serological responses to measles and other vaccines used in the Expanded Programme on Immunization: results from five randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during infancy (IPTi) is the administration of a full therapeutic course of antimalarial drugs to infants living in settings where malaria is endemic, at the time of routine vaccination in the first year of life. We investigated whether IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine or other antimalarial drug combinations adversely affected serological responses to vaccines used in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI). METHODS: The study was done in a subset of children enrolled in five randomised controlled trials in Navrongo, Ghana; Kilimanjaro, Tanzania; Manhica, Mozambique; Kisumu, Kenya; and Bungoma, Kenya. All infants presenting for the second dose of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccination (given at 8-10 weeks of age) were eligible, and analyses included all children who had received measles vaccination (at 9 months of age) and at least one dose of IPTi or placebo. Blood samples were collected before and after vaccination, and antibody titres were measured by plaque reduction neutralisation (measles, yellow fever), microneutralisation (polio serotypes 1 and 3), and ELISA (all other EPI antigens). Laboratory personnel were unaware of the randomisation groups. We compared the proportion of infants in the IPTi and placebo groups who did not attain protective antibody titres after vaccination, using a one-sided significance non-inferiority margin of 5% for measles (the primary endpoint) and 10% for other EPI antigens. FINDINGS: Between September, 2000, and May, 2008, 8416 children were enrolled in the five studies. Paired samples from 2368 children from sites where sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine was compared with placebo were analysed for measles antibodies. 464 children with detectable measles antibody in their sample before vaccination were excluded, leaving 1904 individuals (934 placebo and 970 sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine) in the study. IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine did not have a clinically significant effect on immune responses to measles vaccine; 61 of 970 (6·3%) children who received IPTi did not develop a protective antibody response after measles vaccination compared with 60 of 934 (6·4%) who received placebo, a difference of -0·14% (95% CI -2·3 to 2·1). When other antimalarial drugs were used for IPTi the results were much the same. Among 2396 children from whom serological response data for other EPI antigens were available, we identified no evidence of an adverse effect of IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine or other antimalarial drugs on the proportion achieving protective antibody concentrations. INTERPRETATION: IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine does not affect serological responses to EPI vaccines. This analysis, therefore, supports the WHO recommendation for coadministration of IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine to infants at the time of the second and third doses of DTP and measles vaccination, in areas of sub-Saharan Africa with moderate to high malaria transmission and where malaria parasites are sensitive to these drugs. It also suggests that treatment of clinical malaria at or around the time of vaccination does not compromise vaccine responsiveness. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Characterization of acute TLR-7 agonist-induced hemorrhagic myocarditis in mice by multiparametric quantitative cardiac magnetic resonance imaging.

Hemorrhagic myocarditis is a potentially fatal complication of excessive levels of systemic inflammation. It has been reported in viral infection, but is also possible in systemic autoimmunity. Epicutaneous treatment of mice with the Toll-like receptor 7 (TLR-7) agonist Resiquimod induces auto-antibodies and systemic tissue damage, including in the heart, and is used as an inducible mouse model of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Here, we show that overactivation of the TLR-7 pathway of viral recognition by Resiquimod treatment of CFN mice induces severe thrombocytopenia and internal bleeding, which manifests most prominently as hemorrhagic myocarditis. We optimized a cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) tissue mapping approach for the in vivo detection of diffuse infiltration, fibrosis and hemorrhages using a combination of T1, T2 and T2 * relaxation times, and compared results with ex vivo histopathology of cardiac sections corresponding to CMR tissue maps. This allowed detailed correlation between in vivo CMR parameters and ex vivo histopathology, and confirmed the need to include T2 * measurements to detect tissue iron for accurate interpretation of pathology associated with CMR parameter changes. In summary, we provide detailed histological and in vivo imaging-based characterization of acute hemorrhagic myocarditis as an acute cardiac complication in the mouse model of Resiquimod-induced SLE, and a refined CMR protocol to allow non-invasive longitudinal in vivo studies of heart involvement in acute inflammation. We propose that adding T2 * mapping to CMR protocols for myocarditis diagnosis improves diagnostic sensitivity and interpretation of disease mechanisms.This article has an associated First Person interview with the first author of the paper

Predicting mortality in sick African children: the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) Score.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in paediatric emergency care units in Africa often occurs within the first 24 h of admission and remains high. Alongside effective triage systems, a practical clinical bedside risk score to identify those at greatest risk could contribute to reducing mortality. METHODS: Data collected during the Fluid As Expansive Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial, a multi-centre trial involving 3,170 severely ill African children, were analysed to identify clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to build a model in this derivation dataset based on clinical parameters that could be quickly and easily assessed at the bedside. A score developed from the model coefficients was externally validated in two admissions datasets from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and compared to published risk scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to identify additional laboratory prognostic factors. RESULTS: A risk score using 8 clinical variables (temperature, heart rate, capillary refill time, conscious level, severe pallor, respiratory distress, lung crepitations, and weak pulse volume) was developed. The score ranged from 0-10 and had an AUROC of 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.77-0.87) in the FEAST trial derivation set. In the independent validation datasets, the score had an AUROC of 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.82) amongst admissions to a paediatric high dependency ward and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.82-0.89) amongst general paediatric admissions. This discriminative ability was similar to, or better than other risk scores in the validation datasets. NRI identified lactate, blood urea nitrogen, and pH to be important prognostic laboratory variables that could add information to the clinical score. CONCLUSIONS: Eight clinical prognostic factors that could be rapidly assessed by healthcare staff for triage were combined to create the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) score and externally validated. The score discriminated those at highest risk of fatal outcome at the point of hospital admission and compared well to other published risk scores. Further laboratory tests were also identified as prognostic factors which could be added if resources were available or as indices of severity for comparison between centres in future research studies

CONservative TReatment of Appendicitis in Children – a randomised controlled feasibility Trial (CONTRACT)

Objective To establish the feasibility of a multicentre randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a non-operative treatment pathway compared with appendicectomy in children with uncomplicated acute appendicitis.Design Feasibility randomised controlled trial with embedded qualitative study to inform recruiter training to optimise recruitment and the design of a future definitive trial.Setting Three specialist paediatric surgery centres in the UK.Patients Children (aged 4–15 years) with a clinical diagnosis of uncomplicated acute appendicitis.Interventions Appendicectomy or a non-operative treatment pathway (comprising broad-spectrum antibiotics and active observation).Main outcome measures Primary outcome measure was the proportion of eligible patients recruited. Secondary outcomes evaluated adherence to interventions, data collection during follow-up, safety of treatment pathways and clinical course.Results Fifty per cent of eligible participants (95% CI 40 to 59) approached about the trial agreed to participate and were randomised. Repeated bespoke recruiter training was associated with an increase in recruitment rate over the course of the trial from 38% to 72%. There was high acceptance of randomisation, good patient and surgeon adherence to trial procedures and satisfactory completion of follow-up. Although more participants had perforated appendicitis than had been anticipated, treatment pathways were found to be safe and adverse event profiles acceptable.Conclusion Recruitment to a randomised controlled trial examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a non-operative treatment pathway compared with appendicectomy for the treatment of uncomplicated acute appendicitis in children is feasible.Trial registration number ISRCTN15830435

Conservative treatment for uncomplicated appendicitis in children:the CONTRACT feasibility study, including feasibility RCT

Background Whilst non-operative treatment is known to be effective for the treatment of uncomplicated acute appendicitis in children, comparative randomised trial data reporting important outcomes compared to appendicectomy are lacking.ObjectivesTo ascertain the feasibility of conducting a multi-centre randomised controlled trial (RCT) testing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a non-operative treatment pathway compared to appendicectomy for the treatment of uncomplicated acute appendicitis in children.•DesignMixed methods study including: a feasibility RCT; embedded and parallel qualitative and survey studies; parallel health economic feasibility study; development of a core outcome set.Setting Three specialist NHS Paediatric Surgical Units in EnglandParticipants Children (aged 4-15 years) clinically diagnosed with uncomplicated acute appendicitis participated in the feasibility RCT. Children, their families, recruiting clinicians and other healthcare professionals involved in caring for children with appendicitis took part in the qualitative study. UK Specialist Paediatric Surgeons took part in the survey. Specialist Paediatric Surgeons, Adult General Surgeons who treat children, and children and young people who previously had appendicitis along with their families took part in the core outcomes set development.Interventions Participants in the feasibility RCT were randomised to a non-operative treatment pathway (broad-spectrum antibiotics and active observation) or appendicectomy.Main outcome measures Primary outcome measure was the proportion of eligible patients recruited to the feasibility trial.Data sourcesNHS casenotes, questionnaire responses, transcribed audio recordings of recruitment discussions and qualitative interviewsResults Overall, 50% (95%CI 40-59) of 115 eligible participants approached about the trial agreed to participate and were randomised. There was high acceptance of randomisation and good adherence to trial procedures and follow-up (follow rates of 89%, 85% and 85% at six weeks, three months and six months respectively). More participants had perforated appendicitis than had been anticipated.Qualitative work enabled us to: communicate about the trial effectively with patients and families; design and deliver bespoke training to optimise recruitment; and understand how to optimise design and delivery of a future trial.The health economic study, indicated that the main cost drivers are the ward stay cost and the cost of the operation, and has informed quality of life assessment methods for future work.A core outcome set for the treatment of uncomplicated acute appendicitis in children and young people was developed, containing 14 outcomes.There is adequate surgeon interest to justify proceeding to an effectiveness trial with 51% of those surveyed expressing a willingness to recruit with an unchanged trial protocol.LimitationsSince the feasibility RCT was only performed in three centres we cannot guarantee successful recruitment across a larger number of sites. However, our qualitative work has informed a bespoke training package to facilitate this. Although survey results suggest adequate clinician interest to make a larger trial possible, actual participation may differ, and equipoise may have moved over time.Conclusions A future effectiveness trial is feasible following limited additional preparation to establish appropriate outcome measures and case identification. We recommend a limited package of qualitative work be included to optimise recruitment at new centres in particular.Future work Prior to proceeding to an effectiveness trial we need to: develop a robust method for distinguishing children with uncomplicated acute appendicitis from those with more advanced appendicitis; reach agreement on a primary outcome measure and effect size that is acceptable to all stakeholder groups involved.Study registration ISRCTN15830435.Funding detailsNIHR HTA programm

Development of a core outcome set to determine the overall treatment success of acute uncomplicated appendicitis in children: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, there has been growing interest in alternatives to appendicectomy. In particular, non-operative treatment of appendicitis, with antibiotics alone, has been proposed as a potential treatment. A small number of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in adults and, more recently, children suggest that antibiotic treatment may be a valid alternative to appendicectomy. However, there is currently insufficient data to justify its widespread use. Prior to performing further efficacy studies of the treatment of appendicitis in children, it is imperative to identify the most relevant outcome measures for inclusion in the design of comparative studies. This is of particular importance when evaluating a novel treatment approach since the outcomes of importance may differ from those commonly reported with traditional therapies. A review of the relevant literature and electronic resources failed to identify a core outcome set (COS) for children with appendicitis. We aim to define a COS for the measurement of treatment interventions in children (<18 years) with acute appendicitis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This project will entail: (1) a systematic review to identify previously reported acute uncomplicated appendicitis treatment outcomes; (2) assembly of stakeholder panels (paediatric and adult surgeons, patients and parents); (3) a three-stage Delphi process; and (4) a final consensus meeting to complete the COS. ETHICS AND REGISTRATION: COS development is part of CONservative TReatment of Appendicitis in Children - a randomised controlled Trial (Feasibility) (CONTRACT) study, for which full ethical approval for CONTRACT has been granted. The COS development study is registered with the COMET Initiative in May 2017 (http://www.comet-initiative.org/studies/details/987)

Teaching emergency and disaster management in Australia: standards for higher education providers

The need for emergency and disaster professionals with multidisciplinary knowledge and holistic understanding is widely recognised. Despite this, there is currently no international nor an Australian consensus on a set of common standards for higher education that could ensure graduates possess knowledge and skills with sufficient commonality to facilitate interoperability in all facets of disaster management cycle. Thus, this research project aimed to develop a standards and an associated conceptual framework for higher education programs in emergency and disaster management. The Generic Emergency and Disaster Management Standards (GEDMS) were developed through a mixed qualitative research approach involving a systematic literature review, mapping of current course content offered in Australia and New Zealand, focus groups of experts and consultation with policy makers, industry representatives and other relevant stakeholders. The Standards consist of three main domains: knowledge, skills and application. Governance and policy frameworks, theoretical and conceptual basis for practice, and contemporary disaster management were identified as underlying themes for the knowledge domain. Leadership, communication, and collaboration were fitted under the skills domain. The professional practice, together with critical thinking, were considered the means by which knowledge and skills are applied