Challenges for the construction of historical price indices : the case of Norway, 1777-1920

This paper reviews some methodological and practical problems encountered in the construction of historical price indices. The underlying data sets in such studies are often characterized by heterogenous and incomplete price series. It is shown that by using the repeat sales method for constructing the subindices for individual commodity groups some of the main problems can be overcome. The procedures are illustrated by material from the construction of monthly price indices for Norway from the year 1777 to 1920. The price indices shed new light on two great wartime in ationary episodes in Norway: 1807-1817 and 1913-1920. In spite of a 61-fold increase in the price level in the rst period and a 4-fold increase in the second, it is found that, after in ation had been brought under control, prices reverted to a level consistent with the purchasing power parity principle

A European-type wage equation from an American-style labor market: Evidence from a panel of Norwegian manufacturing industries in the 1930s

Using a newly constructed panel of manufacturing industry data for interwar Norway, we estimate a long-run wage curve for the 1930s that has all the modern features of being homogeneous in prices, proportional to productivity, and having an unemployment elasticity of -0.1. This result is more typical of contemporary European than U.S. wage equations, even if the labour market in interwar Norway possessed distinctively more ‘American’ features than those associated with present-day European welfare states. We also present some new Monte Carlo evidence on the properties of the estimators used.wages, depression, panel data, dynamics

A Wage Curve for the Interwar Labour Market: Evidence from a Panel of Norwegian Manufacturing Industries

We present an econometric analysis of wage behaviour in Norway during the interwar years. Applying GMM estimation methods to a newly constructed panel of manufacturing industry data, we find that the interwar years do not seem to be such an anomalous time period as has been suggested with respect to wage behaviour. We estimate a long-run wage curve that has all the modern features of being homogeneous in prices, proportional to productivity, and having an unemployment elasticity of -0.1. We also present some new Monte Carlo evidence on the properties of the estimators used.

Shipping in dire straits: New evidence on trends and cycles in coal freights from Britain, 1919-1939

New monthly freight rate indices for 13 coal trade routes from Britain 1919-1939 are presented. The new indices form the basis of a review of the interwar freight markets and their relationship to the timing and severity of general business cycles. New time series of laid-up tonnage provide the background for this discussion. The Great Depression starting in the autumn of 1929 created a shipping cycle of unusual length and severity. Real freight rate indices used as a cross-check on productivity gains in shipping raise some doubt on previous estimates of productivity growth in British shipping in the interwar years

Navigating through torpedo attacks and enemy raiders: Merchant shipping and freight rates during World War I

During World War I ocean freight rates rose to extraordinary levels. Using a new monthly dataset it is shown that freight rates can be well explained by economic activity, commodity prices, war risk and world tonnage in the period 1912 to 1916. In the first two years of the war part of the British merchant eet was directly controlled by the Government but neutral shipping was basically free to operate as normal. In this period neutral shipping accounted for about one third of British imports. In the final two years of the war a much stricter regime of freight control was introduced that resulted in the withdrawal of a large proportion of neutral shipowners from British and Allied trade. Together with the mounting losses of tonnage due to the German submarine campaign this created an acute shortage of carrying capacity and reduced imports. It is argued that the policy of freight control may have rested on a misconception of the role of freight rates as a source of the high wartime in ation

Contributions to a History of Prices in Norway: Monthly Price Indices, 1777-1920

This study reports the outcome of an effort to collect market price data for Norway with a view to constructing monthly price indices from the year 1777 to 1920. The material covers data on commodity prices from agriculture, fishery, dairying, manufacturing and mining. Indices of the wholesale and producer price index families are constructed, using the repeat sales method for constructing the underlying price series. Separate indices for commodity exports and imports are also presented. The new wholesale price index, as well as the export and import price indices, are linked to existing price indices after 1920 and brought forward to the end of 1940. The price indices shed new light on two great wartime inflationary episodes in Norway: 1807-1817 and 1913-1920. In spite of a 61-fold increase in the price level in the first period and a 4-fold increase in the second, it is found that, after inflation had been brought under control, prices reverted to a level consistent with the purchasing power parity principle.publishedVersio

Commodity market integration 1850 - 1913 : evidence from Britain and Germany

In a sample that contains annual prices of 39 selected commodities in Britain and Germany in the period 1850 to 1913 substantial evidence of well integrated commodity markets is found. The degree of integration is not universal across markets and varies over time, however. Absolute price variability was in general decresing over the period, indicating more closely integrated markets. But the reintroduction of tariffs in Germany beginning in 1879 implied that this trend was broken for a number of commodities. Nevertheless, once the impact of tariffs is accounted for, grain market prices are well synchronized. In contrast, markets for animal foodstuffs appear not to be integrated, which is to be expected given the existence of non-tariff barriers affecting meat and livestock markets. The price movements of non-ferrous metals, many textiles and some other raw materials are in accordance with the law of one price. The speed of adjustments of prices, measured by estimates of the half-life of LOP deviations, is a little more than one year, which is substantially lower than what is found in many other studies of market integration

Measuring Trends and Cycles in Industrial Production in Norway 1896-1948

This paper presents new indices for industrial production in Norway covering the years 1896-1948. Separate annual and monthly indices of gross output and labour productivity are computed for 45 manufacturing and mining industries, using annually updated weights based on value added at factor cost. The new industrial production index shows somewhat stronger growth of output in the years before WWI and, in particular, in the 1930s, than the existing index published by Statistics Norway. The new monthly data set also provides a basis for identifying a business cycle chronology for Norway in the first half of the twentieth century.publishedVersio