The Entry of Randomized Assignment into the Social Sciences

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from De Gruyter via the DOI in this record.Although the concept of randomized assignment in order to control for extraneous confounding factors reaches back hundreds of years, the first empirical use appears to have been in an 1835 trial of homeopathic medicine. Throughout the 19th century there was a growing awareness of the need for comparison groups, albeit often without the realization that randomization could be a clean method to achieve that goal. In the second and more crucial phase of this history, four separate but related disciplines introduced randomized control trials within a few years of one another in the 1920s: agricultural science; clinical medicine; educational psychology; and social policy (specifically political science). This brought more rigor to fields that were focusing more on causal relationships. In a third phase, the 1950s through 1970s saw a surge of interest in more applied randomized experiments in economics and elsewhere – both in the lab and especially in the field

Perceptions regarding the value of life before and after birth

This is the final version of the article. Available from OMICS International via the DOI in this record.Objective: This paper aims to explain the practical importance of placing a numeric value on the relative values of lives (or deaths) at different ages, including just before and after birth, and to implement one feasible method for estimating concrete inputs into such values. Methods: The study population consisted of an online convenience sample of 1628 unique individuals. They were each asked to fill out a short survey consisting of six demographic questions and one question requesting an explicit comparison of numbers of lives saved across groups of humans at different ages. Subjects were randomized into one of ten treatment conditions, where each condition involved a different comparison. The age groups which were asked about consisted of fetuses at 10 and 39 weeks gestation; pregnant women at 10 and 39 weeks gestation; infants in the first week of life; 1-year-old children; and adult women. Results: On average respondents valued younger fetuses less than more developed ones; fetuses less than children; children less than adult women; and women less than pregnant women. However, there was no discernible difference in valuation between 39-week fetuses and early neonatal infants. Female subjects valued all fetuses and children (relative to adult women) more highly than did male subjects. Conclusion: Meaningful data can be collected about sensitive topics using online experiments. In this case we find support for a continuously growing valuation of life with developmental age, starting early in gestation and without any sudden jump at birth

Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Economic Association via the DOI in this record.We show that a number of noncognitive skills and preferences, including patience and identity, are malleable in adults, and that investments in them reduce crime and violence. We recruited criminally engaged men and randomized one-half to eight weeks of cognitive behavioral therapy designed to foster self-regulation, patience, and a noncriminal identity and lifestyle. We also randomized $200 grants. Cash alone and therapy alone initially reduced crime and violence, but effects dissipated over time. When cash followed therapy, crime and violence decreased dramatically for at least a year. We hypothesize that cash reinforced therapy's impacts by prolonging learning-by doing, lifestyle changes, and self-investment

Comparing the impact on COVID-19 mortality of self-imposed behavior change and of government regulations across 13 countries

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData sources: Secondary data on COVID-19 deaths from 13 European countries, over March-May 2020.Background: Countries have adopted different approaches, at different times, to reduce the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Cross-country comparison could indicate the relative efficacy of these approaches. We assess various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) over time, comparing the effects of self-imposed (i.e. voluntary) behavior change and of changes enforced via official regulations, by statistically examining their impacts on subsequent death rates in 13 European countries. Methods and findings: We examine two types of NPI: the introduction of government-enforced closure policies over time; and self-imposed alteration of individual behaviors in response to awareness of the epidemic, in the period prior to regulations. Our proxy for the latter is Google mobility data, which captures voluntary behavior change when disease salience is sufficiently high. The primary outcome variable is the rate of change in COVID-19 fatalities per day, 16-20 days after interventions take place. Linear multivariate regression analysis is used to evaluate impacts. Voluntarily reduced mobility, occurring prior to government policies, decreases the percent change in deaths per day by 9.2 percentage points (95% CI 4.5-14.0 pp). Government closure policies decrease the percent change in deaths per day by 14.0 percentage points (95% CI 10.8-17.2 pp). Disaggregating government policies, the most beneficial are intercity travel restrictions, cancelling public events, and closing non-essential workplaces. Other sub-components, such as closing schools and imposing stay-at-home rules, show smaller and statistically insignificant impacts. Conclusions: This study shows that NPIs have substantially reduced fatalities arising from COVID-19. Importantly, the effect of voluntary behavior change is of the same order of magnitude as government-mandated regulations. These findings, including the substantial variation across dimensions of closure, have implications for the phased withdrawal of government policies as the epidemic recedes, and for the possible reimposition of regulations if a second wave occurs, especially given the substantial economic and human welfare consequences of maintaining lockdowns

Applying behavioral insights to tax compliance: Experimental evidence from Latvia

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Journal of Tax Administration via the link in this recordIn recent years, tax authorities around the world have started using behavioral insights to encourage taxpayers to fulfill their obligations. We review and discuss some of the recent empirical literature on tax compliance. In line with recent trends, we report on a field experiment in collaboration with the tax authority of Latvia (SRS) to encourage previously non-compliant individuals, who also have own business income, to submit their tax declarations on time in 2017. These individuals were pre-emptively sent emails with behaviorally informed messages, in order to reach and influence an important target population, at a salient moment. Our results indicate that all the behaviorally informed messages increased submission by the submission deadline, compared to a control group. The best performer was a message that specifically framed noncompliant behavior as a deliberate choice, which increased timely submission by 9.4% (4.1 percentage points; p=0.05)

Applying behavioral insights to tax compliance: Experimental evidence from Latvia

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Journal of Tax Administration via the link in this recordIn recent years, tax authorities around the world have started using behavioral insights to encourage taxpayers to fulfill their obligations. We review and discuss some of the recent empirical literature on tax compliance. In line with recent trends, we report on a field experiment in collaboration with the tax authority of Latvia (SRS) to encourage previously non-compliant individuals, who also have own business income, to submit their tax declarations on time in 2017. These individuals were pre-emptively sent emails with behaviorally informed messages, in order to reach and influence an important target population, at a salient moment. Our results indicate that all the behaviorally informed messages increased submission by the submission deadline, compared to a control group. The best performer was a message that specifically framed noncompliant behavior as a deliberate choice, which increased timely submission by 9.4% (4.1 percentage points; p=0.05)

Choice Architecture to Improve Financial Decision Making

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from MIT Press via the DOI in this recordWe exploit the principles of choice architecture to evaluate interventions in the market for reloadable prepaid cards. Participants are randomized into three card menu presentation treatments - the market status quo, a regulation-inspired reform, or an enhanced reform designed to minimize attribute overload - and offered choices based on prior structural estimation of individual preferences. Consumers routinely choose incorrectly under the status quo, with tentative evidence the regulation-inspired presentation may increase best card choice, and clear evidence the enhanced reform reduces worst card choice. Welfare analysis suggests the regulation-inspired presentation offers modest gains, while the enhanced policy generates substantial benefits

Five-year impacts of group-based financial education and savings promotion for Ugandan youth

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from MIT Press via the DOI in this recordWe experimentally evaluate group-based financial education, savings account access, or both for members of Ugandan youth groups. We measure both short- and long-run impacts with one- and five- year endline household surveys. Education, but not account access, increases measured financial knowledge and trust at one-year. At five-years, knowledge effects essentially disappear, and trust effects weaken. However, savings and income increase for each treatment at both endlines, which is noteworthy given the interventions’ low cost and the long time horizon of our second endline. Exploring potential mechanisms, we find evidence consistent with multiple pathways to behavior change and outcome improvement.DFIDCiti Foundatio

Community-based rangeland management in Namibia improves resource governance but not environmental and economic outcomes

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: Hypotheses and analytical methods for this research were pre-registered prior to analysis through the American Economic Association’s RCT registry and are available online (https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/2723). Data used for this research are accessible at the Millennium Challenge Corporation website (https://data.mcc.gov/evaluations/index.php/catalog/138/study-description) and will also be linked to on the Innovations for Poverty Action dataverse. In the publicly available data, some numerical outliers have been censored in order to preserve the anonymity of the survey respondents. This censoring does not affect the direction and statistical significance of our results. Access to uncensored data is available upon request from the Millennium Challenge Corporation or the corresponding author, subject to approval by the Millennium Challenge Corporation.Code availability: Data analysis was conducted in R and Stata. All code needed to replicate the figures and tables in this paper and the Supplementary Information is available, with accompanying datasets, through the Millennium Challenge Corporation at (https://data.mcc.gov/evaluations/index.php/catalog/138/study-description) and will also be linked to on the Innovations for Poverty Action dataverse.Classic theories suggest that common pool resources are subject to overexploitation. Community-based resource management approaches may ameliorate tragedy of the commons effects. Here we use a randomized evaluation in Namibia’s communal rangelands to study a comprehensive four-year program to support community-based rangeland and cattle management. We find that the program led to persistent and large improvements for eight of thirteen indices of social and behavioral outcomes. Effects on rangeland health, cattle productivity and household economics, however, were either negative or nil. Positive impacts on community resource management may have been offset by communities’ inability to control grazing by non-participating herds and inhibited by an unresponsive rangeland sub-system. This juxtaposition, in which measurable improvements in community resource management did not translate into better outcomes for households or rangeland health, demonstrates the fragility of the causal pathway from program implementation to intended socioeconomic and environmental outcomes. It also points to challenges for improving climate change–adaptation strategies.Millennium Challenge Corporatio

Constraints to Implementing the Essential Health Package in Malawi

Increasingly seen as a useful tool of health policy, Essential or Minimal Health Packages direct resources to interventions that aim to address the local burden of disease and be cost-effective. Less attention has been paid to the delivery mechanisms for such interventions. This study aimed to assess the degree to which the Essential Health Package (EHP) in Malawi was available to its population and what health system constraints impeded its full implementation. The first phase of this study comprised a survey of all facilities in three districts including interviews with all managers and clinical staff. In the second and third phase, results were discussed with District Health Management Teams and national level stakeholders, respectively, including representatives of the Ministry of Health, Central Medical Stores, donors and NGOs. The EHP in Malawi is focussing on the local burden of disease; however, key constraints to its successful implementation included a widespread shortage of staff due to vacancies but also caused by frequent trainings and meetings (only 48% of expected man days of clinical staff were available; training and meetings represented 57% of all absences in health centres). Despite the training, the percentage of health workers aware of vital diagnostic and therapeutic approaches to EHP conditions was weak. Another major constraint was shortages of vital drugs at all levels of facilities (e.g. Cotrimoxazole was sufficiently available to treat the average number of patients in only 27% of health centres). Although a few health workers noted some improvement in infrastructure and working conditions, they still considered them to be widely inadequate. In Malawi, as in similar resource poor countries, greater attention needs to be given to the health system constraints to delivering health care. Removal of these constraints should receive priority over the considerable focus on the development and implementation of essential packages of interventions