Compressed representation of brain genetic transcription

The architecture of the brain is too complex to be intuitively surveyable without the use of compressed representations that project its variation into a compact, navigable space. The task is especially challenging with high-dimensional data, such as gene expression, where the joint complexity of anatomical and transcriptional patterns demands maximum compression. Established practice is to use standard principal component analysis (PCA), whose computational felicity is offset by limited expressivity, especially at great compression ratios. Employing whole-brain, voxel-wise Allen Brain Atlas transcription data, here we systematically compare compressed representations based on the most widely supported linear and non-linear methods-PCA, kernel PCA, non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), t-stochastic neighbour embedding (t-SNE), uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP), and deep auto-encoding-quantifying reconstruction fidelity, anatomical coherence, and predictive utility with respect to signalling, microstructural, and metabolic targets. We show that deep auto-encoders yield superior representations across all metrics of performance and target domains, supporting their use as the reference standard for representing transcription patterns in the human brain.Comment: 21 pages, 5 main figures, 1 supplementary figur

The legibility of the imaged human brain

Our knowledge of the organisation of the human brain at the population-level is yet to translate into power to predict functional differences at the individual-level, limiting clinical applications, and casting doubt on the generalisability of inferred mechanisms. It remains unknown whether the difficulty arises from the absence of individuating biological patterns within the brain, or from limited power to access them with the models and compute at our disposal. Here we comprehensively investigate the resolvability of such patterns with data and compute at unprecedented scale. Across 23810 unique participants from UK Biobank, we systematically evaluate the predictability of 25 individual biological characteristics, from all available combinations of structural and functional neuroimaging data. Over 4526 GPU*hours of computation, we train, optimize, and evaluate out-of-sample 700 individual predictive models, including multilayer perceptrons of demographic, psychological, serological, chronic morbidity, and functional connectivity characteristics, and both uni- and multi-modal 3D convolutional neural network models of macro- and micro-structural brain imaging. We find a marked discrepancy between the high predictability of sex (balanced accuracy 99.7%), age (mean absolute error 2.048 years, R2 0.859), and weight (mean absolute error 2.609Kg, R2 0.625), for which we set new state-of-the-art performance, and the surprisingly low predictability of other characteristics. Neither structural nor functional imaging predicted individual psychology better than the coincidence of common chronic morbidity (p<0.05). Serology predicted common morbidity (p<0.05) and was best predicted by it (p<0.001), followed by structural neuroimaging (p<0.05). Our findings suggest either more informative imaging or more powerful models will be needed to decipher individual level characteristics from the brain.Comment: 36 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, 2 supplementary figure

A framework for focal and connectomic mapping of transiently disrupted brain function

The distributed nature of the neural substrate, and the difficulty of establishing necessity from correlative data, combine to render the mapping of brain function a far harder task than it seems. Methods capable of combining connective anatomical information with focal disruption of function are needed to disambiguate local from global neural dependence, and critical from merely coincidental activity. Here we present a comprehensive framework for focal and connective spatial inference based on sparse disruptive data, and demonstrate its application in the context of transient direct electrical stimulation of the human medial frontal wall during the pre-surgical evaluation of patients with focal epilepsy. Our framework formalizes voxel-wise mass-univariate inference on sparsely sampled data within the statistical parametric mapping framework, encompassing the analysis of distributed maps defined by any criterion of connectivity. Applied to the medial frontal wall, this transient dysconnectome approach reveals marked discrepancies between local and distributed associations of major categories of motor and sensory behaviour, revealing differentiation by remote connectivity to which purely local analysis is blind. Our framework enables disruptive mapping of the human brain based on sparsely sampled data with minimal spatial assumptions, good statistical efficiency, flexible model formulation, and explicit comparison of local and distributed effects

The minimal computational substrate of fluid intelligence

The quantification of cognitive powers rests on identifying a behavioural task that depends on them. Such dependence cannot be assured, for the powers a task invokes cannot be experimentally controlled or constrained a priori, resulting in unknown vulnerability to failure of specificity and generalisability. Evaluating a compact version of Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices (RAPM), a widely used clinical test of fluid intelligence, we show that LaMa, a self-supervised artificial neural network trained solely on the completion of partially masked images of natural environmental scenes, achieves human-level test scores a prima vista, without any task-specific inductive bias or training. Compared with cohorts of healthy and focally lesioned participants, LaMa exhibits human-like variation with item difficulty, and produces errors characteristic of right frontal lobe damage under degradation of its ability to integrate global spatial patterns. LaMa's narrow training and limited capacity -- comparable to the nervous system of the fruit fly -- suggest RAPM may be open to computationally simple solutions that need not necessarily invoke abstract reasoning.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figure

Computational limits to the legibility of the imaged human brain

Our knowledge of the organisation of the human brain at the population-level is yet to translate into power to predict functional differences at the individual-level, limiting clinical applications and casting doubt on the generalisability of inferred mechanisms. It remains unknown whether the difficulty arises from the absence of individuating biological patterns within the brain, or from limited power to access them with the models and compute at our disposal. Here we comprehensively investigate the resolvability of such patterns with data and compute at unprecedented scale. Across 23 810 unique participants from UK Biobank, we systematically evaluate the predictability of 25 individual biological characteristics, from all available combinations of structural and functional neuroimaging data. Over 4526 GPU*hours of computation, we train, optimize, and evaluate out-of-sample 700 individual predictive models, including fully-connected feed-forward neural networks of demographic, psychological, serological, chronic disease, and functional connectivity characteristics, and both uni- and multi-modal 3D convolutional neural network models of macro- and micro-structural brain imaging. We find a marked discrepancy between the high predictability of sex (balanced accuracy 99.7%), age (mean absolute error 2.048 years, R2 0.859), and weight (mean absolute error 2.609Kg, R2 0.625), for which we set new state-of-the-art performance, and the surprisingly low predictability of other characteristics. Neither structural nor functional imaging predicted an individual's psychology better than the coincidence of common chronic disease (p &lt; 0.05). Serology predicted chronic disease (p &lt; 0.05) and was best predicted by it (p &lt; 0.001), followed by structural neuroimaging (p &lt; 0.05). Our findings suggest either more informative imaging or more powerful models will be needed to decipher individual level characteristics from the human brain. We make our models and code openly available

Deep forecasting of translational impact in medical research

The value of biomedical research--a $1.7 trillion annual investment--is ultimately determined by its downstream, real-world impact. Current objective predictors of impact rest on proxy, reductive metrics of dissemination, such as paper citation rates, whose relation to real-world translation remains unquantified. Here we sought to determine the comparative predictability of future real-world translation--as indexed by inclusion in patents, guidelines or policy documents--from complex models of the abstract-level content of biomedical publications versus citations and publication meta-data alone. We develop a suite of representational and discriminative mathematical models of multi-scale publication data, quantifying predictive performance out-of-sample, ahead-of-time, across major biomedical domains, using the entire corpus of biomedical research captured by Microsoft Academic Graph from 1990 to 2019, encompassing 43.3 million papers across all domains. We show that citations are only moderately predictive of translational impact as judged by inclusion in patents, guidelines, or policy documents. By contrast, high-dimensional models of publication titles, abstracts and metadata exhibit high fidelity (AUROC > 0.9), generalise across time and thematic domain, and transfer to the task of recognising papers of Nobel Laureates. The translational impact of a paper indexed by inclusion in patents, guidelines, or policy documents can be predicted--out-of-sample and ahead-of-time--with substantially higher fidelity from complex models of its abstract-level content than from models of publication meta-data or citation metrics. We argue that content-based models of impact are superior in performance to conventional, citation-based measures, and sustain a stronger evidence-based claim to the objective measurement of translational potential

When the Shoe is on the Other Foot: Experimental Evidence on Evaluation Disparities

Research provides evidence that the method chosen to elicit value has an important effect on a person’s valuation. We hypothesize that role has a crucial effect on decision makers’ elicited values: Buyers prefer to pay less and sellers prefer to collect more. We conduct experimental sessions and replicate the disparity between willingness to pay and willingness to accept. We conduct additional sessions in which role is stripped away: Endowed decision makers provide values that are used to determine a price at which anonymous others transact. Importantly, decision makers’ earnings in the experiment are not affected by the elicited values, but the endowments influence decision makers’ valuations. Our findings suggest that decision makers consider their relative standing, in comparison to anonymous others, in providing valuations. The disparity between willingness to pay and willingness to accept disappears when decision makers’ endowments ensure that they are at least as well off as other participants

Dictator Games: A Meta Study

Over the last 25 years, more than a hundred dictator game experiments have been published. This meta study summarizes the evidence. Exploiting the fact that most experiments had to fix parameters they did not intend to test, the meta study explores a rich set of control variables for multivariate analysis. It shows that Tobit models (assuming that dictators would even want to take money) and hurdle models (assuming that the decision to give a positive amount is separate from the choice of amount, conditional on giving) outperform mere meta-regression and OLS

The human cost of ethical artificial intelligence

Foundational models such as ChatGPT critically depend on vast data scales the internet uniquely enables. This implies exposure to material varying widely in logical sense, factual fidelity, moral value, and even legal status. Whereas data scaling is a technical challenge, soluble with greater computational resource, complex semantic filtering cannot be performed reliably without human intervention: the self-supervision that makes foundational models possible at least in part presupposes the abilities they seek to acquire. This unavoidably introduces the need for large-scale human supervision-not just of training input but also model output-and imbues any model with subjectivity reflecting the beliefs of its creator. The pressure to minimize the cost of the former is in direct conflict with the pressure to maximise the quality of the latter. Moreover, it is unclear how complex semantics, especially in the realm of the moral, could ever be reduced to an objective function any machine could plausibly maximise. We suggest the development of foundational models necessitates urgent innovation in quantitative ethics and outline possible avenues for its realisation