Highway cost keeping

The purpose of this publication is to present, first, in an elementary way the principles which govern cost keeping; second, a practicable application of those principles to highway work

Response to the Letter to the Editor

This paper has attracted interest around the world from the media (both TV and newspapers). In addition, we have received letters, emails and telephone calls. One of our favorites was a voicemail message asking us to return a call to Australia at which point we would learn who really killed JFK. We welcome the opportunity to respond to the letter to the editor from Mr. Fiorentino. Mr. Fiorentino claims that our ``statement relating to the likelihood of a second assassin based on the premise of three or more separate bullets is demonstrably false.'' In response we would like to simply quote from page 327 of Gerald Posner's book Case Closed, one of the most well known works supporting the single assassin theory: ``If Connally was hit by another bullet, it had to be fired from a second shooter, since the Warren Commission's own reconstructions showed that Oswald could not have operated the bolt and refired in 1.4 seconds.'' Mr. Fiorentino also claims that the ``second fatal flaw is the use of a rather uncomplicated formula based on Bayes Theorem.'' Let $E$ denote the evidence and $T$ denote the theory that there were just two bullets (and hence a single shooter). We used Bayes Theorem to hypothetically calculate $P(T|E)$ from $P(E|T)$ and the prior probability $P(T)$. In order to make $P(T|E)$ ten times more likely than $P(\bar{T}|E)$, the ratio of the prior probabilities [i.e., $P(T) / P(\bar{T})$] would have to be greater than 15. Thus, we again conclude that this casts serious doubt on Dr. Guinn's conclusion that the evidence supported just two bullets. Sadly, this is far from the first time that probability has been misunderstood and/or misapplied in a case of public interest. A notable British example is the Clark case. See Nobles and Schiff (2005) for details. Finally, we welcome and, in fact, encourage members of the scientific community to provide alternative analyses of the data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS154 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Chemical and forensic analysis of JFK assassination bullet lots: Is a second shooter possible?

The assassination of President John Fitzgerald Kennedy (JFK) traumatized the nation. In this paper we show that evidence used to rule out a second assassin is fundamentally flawed. This paper discusses new compositional analyses of bullets reportedly to have been derived from the same batch as those used in the assassination. The new analyses show that the bullet fragments involved in the assassination are not nearly as rare as previously reported. In particular, the new test results are compared to key bullet composition testimony presented before the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Matches of bullets within the same box of bullets are shown to be much more likely than indicated in the House Select Committee on Assassinations' testimony. Additionally, we show that one of the ten test bullets is considered a match to one or more assassination fragments. This finding means that the bullet fragments from the assassination that match could have come from three or more separate bullets. Finally, this paper presents a case for reanalyzing the assassination bullet fragments and conducting the necessary supporting scientific studies. These analyses will shed light on whether the five bullet fragments constitute three or more separate bullets. If the assassination fragments are derived from three or more separate bullets, then a second assassin is likely, as the additional bullet would not easily be attributable to the main suspect, Mr. Oswald, under widely accepted shooting scenarios [see Posner (1993), Case Closed, Bantam, New York].Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS119 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Possible Effects of Catfish Exploitation on Overwinter Body Condition of Double-Crested Cormorants

Concurrent with the rapid growth of the Mississippi catfish industry during the 1980’s, there was evidence of similar growth of double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) populations wintering in the delta region of Mississippi. Observational and food habits studies indicate that this expansive industry, incorporating more than 100,000 acres of ponds, provides an enormous food base for overwintering populations estimated in recent years to exceed 50,000 birds. As much as 75 percent of the diet in certain roosting areas of the Mississippi delta consisted of catfish, and according to bioenergetic models cormorants can exploit as much as 940 metric tons of catfish per winter. Despite these data, there has been little attempt to demonstrate whether exploitation of this food base has increased body condition and possibly survival of wintering cormorants that return primarily to the Great Lakes region to breed. To examine this possible effect, we analyzed monthly changes in body masses of wintering cormorants collected in the delta region of Mississippi and compared premigratory body masses and fat deposition of Mississippi cormorants with those from areas without extensive aquaculture production. With the exception of adult females, all sex and age groups of cormorants collected in the delta during the winters of 1989– 90 and 1990–91 increased (P \u3c 0.05) their body mass from November to April. Over all months, body masses of adult males and adult females were greater than that of subadults. Standardized by wing chord length, the premigratory body masses of Mississippi males and females differed (P \u3c 0.0004) from premigratory males and females collected from Alabama in areas remote from catfish production. Premigratory fat deposition appeared to be responsible for the body mass increases, and omental fat mass was highly correlated (R = 0.721, P \u3c 0.0001) with body mass and also differed (P = 0.0003) between Mississippi and Alabama birds. We hypothesize that the improved body condition of cormorants resulting from exploiting catfish has increased their survival and contributed to the population explosion of cormorants observed over the past decade. We suggest additional studies to substantiate our findings and to clarify the importance of southern aquaculture on improving body condition and survival of cormorants

Possible Effects of Catfish Exploitation on Overwinter Body Condition of Double-Crested Cormorants

Concurrent with the rapid growth of the Mississippi catfish industry during the 1980’s, there was evidence of similar growth of double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) populations wintering in the delta region of Mississippi. Observational and food habits studies indicate that this expansive industry, incorporating more than 100,000 acres of ponds, provides an enormous food base for overwintering populations estimated in recent years to exceed 50,000 birds. As much as 75 percent of the diet in certain roosting areas of the Mississippi delta consisted of catfish, and according to bioenergetic models cormorants can exploit as much as 940 metric tons of catfish per winter. Despite these data, there has been little attempt to demonstrate whether exploitation of this food base has increased body condition and possibly survival of wintering cormorants that return primarily to the Great Lakes region to breed. To examine this possible effect, we analyzed monthly changes in body masses of wintering cormorants collected in the delta region of Mississippi and compared premigratory body masses and fat deposition of Mississippi cormorants with those from areas without extensive aquaculture production. With the exception of adult females, all sex and age groups of cormorants collected in the delta during the winters of 1989– 90 and 1990–91 increased (P \u3c 0.05) their body mass from November to April. Over all months, body masses of adult males and adult females were greater than that of subadults. Standardized by wing chord length, the premigratory body masses of Mississippi males and females differed (P \u3c 0.0004) from premigratory males and females collected from Alabama in areas remote from catfish production. Premigratory fat deposition appeared to be responsible for the body mass increases, and omental fat mass was highly correlated (R = 0.721, P \u3c 0.0001) with body mass and also differed (P = 0.0003) between Mississippi and Alabama birds. We hypothesize that the improved body condition of cormorants resulting from exploiting catfish has increased their survival and contributed to the population explosion of cormorants observed over the past decade. We suggest additional studies to substantiate our findings and to clarify the importance of southern aquaculture on improving body condition and survival of cormorants

Influence of Chaperone-Like Activity of Caseinomacropeptide on the Gelation Behaviour of Whey Proteins at pH 6.4 and 7.2

The effect of caseinomacropeptide (CMP) on the heat-induced denaturation and gelation of whey proteins (2.5–10%, w/v) at pH 6.4 and 7.2, at a whey protein:CMP ratio of 1:0.9 (w/w), was investigated using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), oscillatory rheology (90 °C for 20 min) and confocal microscopy. Greater frequency-dependence in the presence of CMP suggested that the repulsive interactions between CMP and the whey proteins affected the network generated by the non-heated whey protein samples. At pH 6.4 or 7.2, CMP increased the temperature of denaturation of β-lactoglobulin by up to 3 °C and increased the gelation temperature by up to 7 °C. The inclusion of CMP strongly affected the structure of the heat-induced whey protein gels, resulting in a finer stranded structure at pH 6.4 and 7.2. The presence of CMP combined with a lower heating rate (2 °C/min) prevented the formation of a solid gel of whey proteins after heating for 20 min at 90 °C and at pH 7.2. These results show the potential of CMP for control of whey protein denaturation and gelation

An ALMA Search for Substructure, Fragmentation, and Hidden Protostars in Starless Cores in Chamaeleon I

We present an Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) 106 GHz (Band 3) continuum survey of the complete population of dense cores in the Chamaeleon I molecular cloud. We detect a total of 24 continuum sources in 19 different target fields. All previously known Class 0 and Class I protostars in Chamaeleon I are detected, whereas all of the 56 starless cores in our sample are undetected. We show that the Spitzer+Herschel census of protostars in Chamaeleon I is complete, with the rate at which protostellar cores have been misclassified as starless cores calculated as <1/56, or < 2%. We use synthetic observations to show that starless cores collapsing following the turbulent fragmentation scenario are detectable by our ALMA observations when their central densities exceed ~10^8 cm^-3, with the exact density dependent on the viewing geometry. Bonnor-Ebert spheres, on the other hand, remain undetected to central densities at least as high as 10^10 cm^-3. Our starless core non-detections are used to infer that either the star formation rate is declining in Chamaeleon I and most of the starless cores are not collapsing, matching the findings of previous studies, or that the evolution of starless cores are more accurately described by models that develop less substructure than predicted by the turbulent fragmentation scenario, such as Bonnor-Ebert spheres. We outline future work necessary to distinguish between these two possibilities.Comment: Accepted by Ap