The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in U.S. Manufacturing: State and Regional Results

In a series of earlier papers we have examined the impact of exchange rate movements on employment and output in the manufacturing sector, disaggregated by industry sector and by production and non-production workers. In this paper we examine the impact of exchange rate movements on manufacturing employment, disaggregated geographically, using census divisions, regions, states and SMSA's as the unit of analysis. Empirical estimates of employment changes are first presented for the four census regions, the nine census divisions, and the fifty states plus the District of Columbia. For the country as a whole, we estimate that movements in the real exchange rate led to the loss of about 1 million manufacturing jobs over this period. We go on to examine in greater detail manufacturing employment in New York State, and report that exchange rate movements had a much larger impact in the areas outside of New York City than in the metropolitan area. This result is consistent with earlier work that found that employment in management or research is not as sensitive to exchange rate movements as employment in production processes. The New York results are followed by an examination of manufacturing employment in five southern states with large rural populations. Some policy makers have expressed a concern that manufacturing employment in rural areas suffered more than in urban areas during the period of the dollar appreciation. We find that within these five states, the impact of the exchange rate on manufacturing employment in the non-SMSA areas was the same or less than was the case for employment within SMSA areas. Finally, we use a multivariate model to explore why manufacturing employment is more sensitive to exchange rate movements in some states than in others. Factors which are associated with greater sensitivity of manufacturing employment to exchange rate movements are: the percent of the population living outside of SMSA areas, the level of production worker wages, and crude oil production. Factors that are associated with less sensitivity of manufacturing employment to exchange rate movements include the percent of the population with 4 years or more of college or per-capita expenditures on public secondary schools.

The Real Exchange Rate, Employment, and Output in Manufacturing in the U.S. and Japan

In the spring of 1981 the U.S. dollar began a four-year period of real appreciation that took it to a peak of more than 50 percent by first quarter 1985. Since then, the dollar has depreciated substantially, but remains above its 1980 level. During the same period, the Japanese yen first depreciated by 12 percent in real terms from 1981 to 1982, and then appreciated by some 30 percent to 1986. These swings in real exchange rates effects on the relative competitiveness of U.S. and Japanese industry, and have effects on employment and output in sectors producing tradeable goods. This paper presents estimates of these effects. Using time series data for the period 1970 to 1986, we use a simple model of supply and demand to estimate the impact of swings in the effective real exchange rate of the dollar and the yen on manufacturing employment and output in the U.S. and Japan, disaggregated by industry sectors, and by production and non-production workers in the case of the U.S. employment. These results are part of a larger research project to estimate the effects of the movements in the real exchange rate on world manufacturing industries. We find significant and substantial effects of the dollar appreciation on employment and output in U.S. manufacturing. In particular, we find that exchange rate movements have had important effects on the durable goods sectors, including primary metals, fabricated metal products, and non-electrical machinery. Other sectors that suffer large employment and output losses when the dollar appreciates are stone, clay and glass products, transportation, instruments, and chemicals. Estimates are also presented for non-production and production workers in the U.S. employment of the latter is more sensitive to the real exchange rate, especially in the durable goods sectors. This suggests the possibility of hysteresis in trade. For Japan, we find significant effects of movements in the yen on employment and output in the durable goods sectors, especially those producing machinery. In particular, yen appreciation causes substantial losses in employment and output in fabricated metal products, general machinery, and electrical machinery. The results for Japan are not as clear as for the U.S., perhaps because we have only annual data for Japan, but quarterly data for the U.S.. Nevertheless, the importance of movements in the real exchange rate for employment and output in manufacturing is evident in both cases.

On the opportunism-independent theory of the firm

Previous developments in the opportunism-independent theory of the firm are either restricted to special cases or are derived from the capabilities or resource-based perspective. However, a more general opportunism-independent approach can be developed, based on the work of Demsetz and Coase, which is nevertheless contractual in nature. This depends on 'direction', that is, deriving economic value by permitting one set of actors to direct the activities of another, and of non-human factors of production. Direction helps to explain not only firm boundaries and organisation, but also the existence of firms, without appealing to opportunism or moral hazard. The paper also considers the extent to which it is meaningful to speak of 'contractual' theories in the absence of opportunism, and whether this analysis can be extended beyond the employment contract to encompass ownership of assets by the firm. © The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved

Organizing Innovation Complementarities between Cross-Functional Teams

Cross-functional teams play a potentially important part in the innovation process enabling knowledge sharing, the development of trust and overcoming spatial and organizational barriers. Using a supermodularity approach, we focus on potential complementarities which may arise when cross-functional teams are used in different elements of the innovation process in UK and German manufacturing plants. Using optimal combinations of cross-functional teams in the innovation process increases innovation success in the UK by 29.5 per cent compared to 9.5 per cent in Germany. Patterns of complementarity are complex, however, but are more uniform in the UK than in Germany. The most uniform complementarities are between product design and development and production engineering, with little synergy evident between the more technical phases of the innovation process and the development of marketing strategy. In strategic terms, our results suggest the value of using cross-functional teams for the more technical elements of the innovation process but that the development of marketing strategy should remain the domain of specialists.Innovation; cross-functional terms; complementarities; UK; Germany

Deregulation of conveyancing markets in England and Wales

There has been much concern in recent years with whether the ‘privilege’ of self- regulation accorded to the professions works for or against the public interest (Federal Trade Commission, 1984; Monopolies and Mergers Commission, 1970, 1976a and 1976b; Department of Trade and Industry, 1989; Courts and Legal Services Act, 1990). Ogus (1993) argues that ‘Self-regulation has had a bad press’ and that ‘most of this criticism is well-founded in relation to some forms of self- regulation’. Economists have been, traditionally, highly critical of many aspects of professional self-regulation.2 More recently, there has been a greater awareness of the informational asymmetry inherent in professional markets which demands some protection for the (infrequent) consumer of personal professional services (see, for example, Dingwall and Fenn (1987)). Commentators have identified three principal instruments of such selfregulators which work against the public interest: (1) restrictions on entry; (2) restrictions on fee competition; and (3) restrictions on advertising and other means of promoting a competitive process within the profession.

An Ex Ante Evaluation Framework for the Regional Impact of Publicly Supported R&D Projects

This paper draws on the knowledge-base implicit in ex post evaluations of publicly funded R&D and other related conceptual and empirical studies to suggest a framework for the ex ante evaluation of the regional benefits from R&D projects. The framework developed comprises two main elements: an inventory of the global private and social benefits which might result from any R&D project; and, an assessment of the share of these global benefits which might accrue to a host region, taking into account the characteristics of the R&D project and the region?s innovation system. The inventory of global benefits separately identifies private and social benefits and distinguishes between increments to public and private knowledge stocks, benefits to R&D productivity and benefits from commercialisation. Potential market and ?pure? knowledge spillovers are also considered separately. The paper concludes with the application of the framework to two illustrative case-studies one relating to a collaborative company-university project and one relating to a university only research centre.

SME innovation, exporting and growth : a review of existing evidence

This article summarises and synthesises the evidence on SME innovation, exporting and growth, paying particular attention to internal and external (eco-system) enablers, and for the interplay between innovation and exporting in SME growth. We highlight those areas for which the evidence base is secure and where the evidence base remains limited, and develop policy suggestions and an agenda for further research