Airborne electromagnetic imaging of discontinuous permafrost

The evolution of permafrost in cold regions is inextricably connected to hydrogeologic processes, climate, and ecosystems. Permafrost thawing has been linked to changes in wetland and lake areas, alteration of the groundwater contribution to stream flow, carbon release, and increased fire frequency. But detailed knowledge about the dynamic state of permafrost in relation to surface and groundwater systems remains an enigma. Here, we present the results of a pioneering ~1,800 line-kilometer airborne electromagnetic survey that shows sediments deposited over the past ~4 million years and the configuration of permafrost to depths of ~100 meters in the Yukon Flats area near Fort Yukon, Alaska. The Yukon Flats is near the boundary between continuous permafrost to the north and discontinuous permafrost to the south, making it an important location for examining permafrost dynamics. Our results not only provide a detailed snapshot of the present-day configuration of permafrost, but they also expose previously unseen details about potential surface – groundwater connections and the thermal legacy of surface water features that has been recorded in the permafrost over the past 1,000 years. This work will be a critical baseline for future permafrost studies aimed at exploring the connections between hydrogeologic, climatic, and ecological processes, and has significant implications for the stewardship of Arctic environments

Cascaded- and Modular-Multilevel Converter Laboratory Test System Options: A Review

The increasing importance of cascaded multilevel converters (CMCs), and the sub-category of modular multilevel converters (MMCs), is illustrated by their wide use in high voltage DC connections and in static compensators. Research is being undertaken into the use of these complex pieces of hardware and software for a variety of grid support services, on top of fundamental frequency power injection, requiring improved control for non-traditional duties. To validate these results, small-scale laboratory hardware prototypes are often required. Such systems have been built by many research teams around the globe and are also increasingly commercially available. Few publications go into detail on the construction options for prototype CMCs, and there is a lack of information on both design considerations and lessons learned from the build process, which will hinder research and the best application of these important units. This paper reviews options, gives key examples from leading research teams, and summarizes knowledge gained in the development of test rigs to clarify design considerations when constructing laboratory-scale CMCs.This work was supported in part by The University of Manchester supported by the National Innovation Allowance project ``VSC-HVDC Model Validation and Improvement'' and Dr. Heath's iCASE Ph.D. studentship supported through Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and National Grid, in part by the Imperial College London supported by EPSRC through the HubNet Extension under Grant EP/N030028/1, in part by an iCASE Ph.D. Studentship supported by EPSRC and EDF Energy and the CDT in Future Power Networks under Grant EP/L015471/1, in part by University of New South Wales (UNSW) supported by the Solar Flagships Program through the Education Infrastructure Fund (EIF), in part by the Australian Research Council through the Discovery Early Career Research Award under Grant DECRA_DE170100370, in part by the Basque Government through the project HVDC-LINK3 under Grant ELKARTEK KK-2017/00083, in part by the L2EP research group at the University of Lille supported by the French TSO (RTE), and in part by the Hauts-de-France region of France with the European Regional Development Fund under Grant FEDER 17007725

Frequency domain analysis for detecting pipeline leaks

The original publication can be found at http://scitation.aip.org/hyoThis paper introduces leak detection methods that involve the injection of a fluid transient into the pipeline, with the resultant transient trace analyzed in the frequency domain. Two methods of leak detection using the frequency response of the pipeline are proposed. The inverse resonance method involves matching the modeled frequency responses to those observed to determine the leak parameters. The peak-sequencing method determines the region in which the leak is located by comparing the relative sizes between peaks in the frequency response diagram. It was found that a unique pattern was induced on the peaks of the frequency response for each specific location of the leak within the pipeline. The leak location can be determined by matching the observed pattern to patterns generated numerically within a lookup table. The procedure for extracting the linear frequency response diagram, including the optimum measurement position, the effect of unsteady friction, and the way in which the technique can be extended into pipeline networks, are also discussed within the paper.Pedro J. Lee, John P. Vítkovský, Martin F. Lambert, Angus R. Simpson and James A. Ligget

Cost-effectiveness analysis of 3-D computerized tomography colonography versus optical colonoscopy for imaging symptomatic gastroenterology patients.

BACKGROUND: When symptomatic gastroenterology patients have an indication for colonic imaging, clinicians have a choice between optical colonoscopy (OC) and computerized tomography colonography with three-dimensional reconstruction (3-D CTC). 3-D CTC provides a minimally invasive and rapid evaluation of the entire colon, and it can be an efficient modality for diagnosing symptoms. It allows for a more targeted use of OC, which is associated with a higher risk of major adverse events and higher procedural costs. A case can be made for 3-D CTC as a primary test for colonic imaging followed if necessary by targeted therapeutic OC; however, the relative long-term costs and benefits of introducing 3-D CTC as a first-line investigation are unknown. AIM: The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of 3-D CTC versus OC for colonic imaging of symptomatic gastroenterology patients in the UK NHS. METHODS: We used a Markov model to follow a cohort of 100,000 symptomatic gastroenterology patients, aged 50 years or older, and estimate the expected lifetime outcomes, life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs (£, 2010-2011) associated with 3-D CTC and OC. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the base-case cost-effectiveness results to variation in input parameters and methodological assumptions. RESULTS: 3D-CTC provided a similar number of LYs (7.737 vs 7.739) and QALYs (7.013 vs 7.018) per individual compared with OC, and it was associated with substantially lower mean costs per patient (£467 vs £583), leading to a positive incremental net benefit. After accounting for the overall uncertainty, the probability of 3-D CTC being cost effective was around 60 %, at typical willingness-to-pay values of £20,000-£30,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: 3-D CTC is a cost-saving and cost-effective option for colonic imaging of symptomatic gastroenterology patients compared with OC

Clinical Outcomes and Survival Following Treatment of Metastatic Castrate-Refractory Prostate Cancer With Docetaxel Alone or With Strontium-89, Zoledronic Acid, or Both

Importance Bony metastatic castrate-refractory prostate cancer (CRPC) has a poor prognosis and high morbidity. Zoledronic acid (ZA) is commonly combined with docetaxel in practice but lacks evidence that combining is effective, and strontium-89 (Sr89) is generally used palliatively in patients unfit for chemotherapy. Phase 2 analysis of the TRAPEZE trial confirmed combining the agents was safe and feasible, and the objectives of phase 3 include assessment of the treatments on survival. Objective To determine clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of combining docetaxel, ZA, and Sr89, all having palliative benefits and used in bony metastatic CRPC to control bone symptoms and, for docetaxel, to prolong survival. Design, Setting, and Participants The TRAPEZE trial is a 2 × 2 factorial trial comparing docetaxel alone or with ZA, Sr89, or both. A cohort of 757 participants were recruited between February 2005 and February 2012 from hospitals in the United Kingdom. Overall, 169 participants (45%) had received palliative radiotherapy, and the median (IQR) prostate-specific antigen level was 146 (51-354). Follow-ups were performed for at least 12 months. Interventions Up to 10 cycles of docetaxel alone; docetaxel with ZA; docetaxel with a single Sr89 dose after 6 cycles; or docetaxel with both ZA and Sr89. Main Outcomes and Measures Primary outcomes included clinical progression-free survival (CPFS) (pain progression, skeletal-related events [SREs], or death) and cost-effectiveness. Secondary outcomes included SRE-free interval, pain progression–free interval, total SREs, and overall survival (OS). Results Overall, of 757 participants, 349 (46%) completed docetaxel treatment. Median (IQR) age was 68 (63-73) years. Clinical progression-free survival did not reach statistical significance for either Sr89 or ZA. Cox regression analysis adjusted for all stratification variables showed benefit of Sr89 on CPFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-0.99; P = .03) and confirmed no effect of ZA (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.85-1.14; P = .81); ZA had a significant effect on SRE-free interval (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65-0.95; P = .01). For OS, there was no effect of either Sr89 (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.79-1.08; P = 0.34) or ZA (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.84-1.16; P = 0.91). Conclusions and Relevance Strontium-89 combined with docetaxel improved CPFS but did not improve OS, SRE-free interval, or total SREs; ZA did not improve CPFS or OS but did significantly improve median SRE-free interval and reduced total SREs by around one-third, suggesting a role as postchemotherapy maintenance therapy

Cost-utility analysis of adding abiraterone acetate plus prednisone/prednisolone to long-term hormone therapy in newly diagnosed advanced prostate cancer in England: Lifetime decision model based on STAMPEDE trial data

Adding abiraterone acetate (AA) plus prednisolone (P) to standard of care (SOC) improves survival in newly diagnosed advanced prostate cancer (PC) patients starting hormone therapy. Our objective was to determine the value for money to the English National Health Service (NHS) of adding AAP to SOC. We used a decision analytic model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of providing AAP in the English NHS. Between 2011-2014, the STAMPEDE trial recruited 1917 men with high-risk localised, locally advanced, recurrent or metastatic PC starting first-line androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT), and they were randomised to receive SOC plus AAP, or SOC alone. Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated using STAMPEDE trial data supplemented with literature data where necessary, adjusting for baseline patient and disease characteristics. British National Formulary (BNF) prices (£98/day) were applied for AAP. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3.5%/year. AAP was not cost-effective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £149,748/QALY gained in the non-metastatic (M0) subgroup, with 2.4% probability of being cost-effective at NICE's £30,000/QALY threshold; and the metastatic (M1) subgroup had an ICER of £47,503/QALY gained, with 12.0% probability of being cost-effective. Scenario analysis suggested AAP could be cost-effective in M1 patients if priced below £62/day, or below £28/day in the M0 subgroup. AAP could dominate SOC in the M0 subgroup with price below £11/day. AAP is effective for non-metastatic and metastatic disease but is not cost-effective when using the BNF price. AAP currently only has UK approval for use in a subset of M1 patients. The actual price currently paid by the English NHS for abiraterone acetate is unknown. Broadening AAP's indication and having a daily cost below the thresholds described above is recommended, given AAP improves survival in both subgroups and its cost-saving potential in M0 subgroup

Experimental observation and analysis of inverse transients for pipeline leak detection

Fluid transients result in a substantial amount of data as pressure waves propagate throughout pipes. A new generation of leak detection and pipe roughness calibration techniques has arisen to exploit those data. Using the interactions of transient waves with leaks, the detection, location, and quantification of leakage using a combination of transient analysis and inverse mathematics is possible using inverse transient analysis (ITA). This paper presents further development of ITA and experimental observations for leak detection in a laboratory pipeline. The effects of data and model error on ITA results have been explored including strategies to minimize their effects using model error compensation techniques and ITA implementation approaches. The shape of the transient is important for successful application of ITA. A rapid input transient (which may be of small magnitude) contains maximum system response information, thus improving the uniqueness and quality of the ITA solution. The effect of using head measurements as boundary conditions for ITA has been shown to significantly reduce sensitivity, making both detection and quantification problematic. Model parsimony is used to limit the number of unknown leak candidates in ITA, thus reducing the minimization problem complexity. Experimental observations in a laboratory pipeline confirm the analysis and illustrate successful detection and quantification of both single and multiple leaks. © 2007 ASCE.John P. Vítkovský, Martin F. Lambert, Angus R. Simpson, and James A. Ligget