Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations

There has been much recent interest in modelling epidemics on networks, particularly in the presence of substantial clustering. Here, we develop pairwise methods to answer questions that are often addressed using epidemic models, in particular: on the basis of potential observations early in an outbreak, what can be predicted about the epidemic outcomes and the levels of intervention necessary to control the epidemic? We find that while some results are independent of the level of clustering (early growth predicts the level of ‘leaky’ vaccine needed for control and peak time, while the basic reproductive ratio predicts the random vaccination threshold) the relationship between other quantities is very sensitive to clustering

Household structure and infectious disease transmission

One of the central tenets of modern infectious disease epidemiology is that an understanding of heterogeneities, both in host demography and transmission, allows control to be efficiently optimized. Due to the strong interactions present, households are one of the most important heterogeneities to consider, both in terms of predicting epidemic severity and as a target for intervention. We consider these effects in the context of pandemic influenza in Great Britain, and find that there is significant local (ward-level) variation in the basic reproductive ratio, with some regions predicted to suffer 50% faster growth rate of infection than the mean. Childhood vaccination was shown to be highly effective at controlling an epidemic, generally outperforming random vaccination and substantially reducing the variation between regions; only nine out of over 10 000 wards did not obey this rule and these can be identified as demographically atypical regions. Since these benefits of childhood vaccination are a product of correlations between household size and number of dependent children in the household, our results are qualitatively robust for a variety of disease scenarios

A New Godunov Scheme for MHD, with Application to the MRI in disks

We describe a new numerical scheme for MHD which combines a higher order Godunov method (PPM) with Constrained Transport. The results from a selection of multidimensional test problems are presented. The complete test suite used to validate the method, as well as implementations of the algorithm in both F90 and C, are available from the web. A fully three-dimensional version of the algorithm has been developed, and is being applied to a variety of astrophysical problems including the decay of supersonic MHD turbulence, the nonlinear evolution of the MHD Rayleigh-Taylor instability, and the saturation of the magnetorotational instability in the shearing box. Our new simulations of the MRI represent the first time that a higher-order Godunov scheme has been applied to this problem, providing a quantitative check on the accuracy of previous results computed with ZEUS; the latter are found to be reliable.Comment: 11 pages, style files included, Conference Proceedings: "Magnetic Fields in the Universe: from Laboratory and Stars to Primordial Structures", More information on Athena can be found at http://www.astro.princeton.edu/~jstone/athena.htm

Frequency response of intracavity laser coupling modulation

A resonant energy coupling between the atomic system and the oscillating optical mode leads to severe output distortion in intracavity laser coupling modulation. This anomalous behavior, which places a lower limit on the modulation frequency, is investigated in a case of a CO2 laser and compared with theoretical predictions

Competition and productivity: a review of evidence

Does competition spur productivity? And if so, how does it do so? These have long been regarded as central questions in economics. This essay reviews the literature that makes progress toward answering both questions.Competition ; Monopolies ; Productivity

Competition at work : railroads vs. monopoly in the U.S. shipping industry

This study primarily establishes two things: (1) that monopoly has been pervasive in the U.S. water transportation industry in both the 19th and 20th centuries and has led to prices above competitive levels and the adoption of inefficient technologies and (2) that the competition of railroads has greatly weakened this monopolistic tendency, leading to lower water transport prices and fewer inefficient technologies. The study establishes these points using standard economic theory and extensive historical U.S. data on the behavior of unions and shipping companies. These gains from competition have been ignored by researchers studying the contribution of railroads to U.S. economic growth. Researchers have assumed that if railroads had not been developed, the long-distance transportation industry would have been competitive. This study shows that it would not have been. The quantitative estimates of previous studies thus are likely to have significantly understated the gains from the development of railroads.Transportation ; Monopolies